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Is Baidu index really powerful to predict the Chinese stock market volatility? New evidence from the internet information

Author

Listed:
  • Qiaoqi Lang
  • Jiqian Wang
  • Feng Ma
  • Dengshi Huang
  • Mohamed Wahab Mohamed Ismail
Abstract
Purpose - This paper verifies whether popular Internet information from Internet forum and search engine exhibit useful content for forecasting the volatility in Chinese stock market. Design/methodology/approach - First, the authors’ study commences with several HAR-RV-type models, then the study amplifies them respectively with the posting volume and search frequency to construct HAR-IF-type and HAR-BD-type models. Second, from in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, the authors empirically investigate the interpretive ability, forecasting performance (statistic and economic). Third, various robustness checks are utilized to reconfirm the authors’ findings, including alternative forecast window, alternative evaluation method and alternative stock market. Finally, the authors further discuss the forecasting performance in different forecast horizons (h = 5, 10 and 20) and asymmetric effect of information from Internet forum. Findings - From in-sample perspective, the authors discover that posting volume exhibits better analytical ability for Chinese stock volatility than search frequency. Out-of-sample results indicate that forecasting models with posting volume could achieve a superior forecasting performance and increased economic value than competing models. Practical implications - These findings can help investors and decision-makers obtain higher forecasting accuracy and economic gains. Originality/value - This study enriches the existing research findings about the volatility forecasting of stock market from two dimensions. First, the authors thoroughly investigate whether the Internet information could enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the volatility forecasting concerning with the Chinese stock market. Second, the authors find a novel evidence that the information from Internet forum is more superior to search frequency in volatility forecasting of stock market. Third, they find that this study not only compares the predictability of the posting volume and search frequency simply, but it also divides the posting volume into “good” and “bad” segments to clarify its asymmetric effect respectively. Highlights -

Suggested Citation

  • Qiaoqi Lang & Jiqian Wang & Feng Ma & Dengshi Huang & Mohamed Wahab Mohamed Ismail, 2021. "Is Baidu index really powerful to predict the Chinese stock market volatility? New evidence from the internet information," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 263-284, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-03-2021-0047
    DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-03-2021-0047
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Zhikai Zhang, 2024. "Forecasting stock returns with industry volatility concentration," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2705-2730, November.
    2. Guo, Xiaozhu & Huang, Dengshi & Li, Xiafei & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Are categorical EPU indices predictable for carbon futures volatility? Evidence from the machine learning method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 672-693.
    3. Chen, Zhonglu & Zhang, Li & Weng, Chen, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect Chinese stock market volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 369-381.
    4. Gao, Shang & Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    5. Liu, Jing & Chen, Zhonglu, 2023. "How do stock prices respond to the leading economic indicators? Analysis of large and small shocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Global economic policy uncertainty aligned: An informative predictor for crude oil market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1318-1332.
    7. Kang, Haijun & Zong, Xiangyu & Wang, Jianyong & Chen, Haonan, 2023. "Binary gravity search algorithm and support vector machine for forecasting and trading stock indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 507-526.
    8. Shen, Lihua & Lu, Xinjie & Luu Duc Huynh, Toan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Air quality index and the Chinese stock market volatility: Evidence from both market and sector indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 224-239.

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