[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i4p1259-d142120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado

    (Department of Financial Economics and Accounting, University of Jaén, 23071 Jaén, Spain)

  • Purificación Parrado-Martínez

    (Department of Financial Economics and Accounting, University of Jaén, 23071 Jaén, Spain)

  • Antonio Partal-Ureña

    (Department of Financial Economics and Accounting, University of Jaén, 23071 Jaén, Spain)

Abstract
This paper analyses the relationships between the traditional bank risk profile indicators and a new measure of banks’ probability of default that considers the Basel regulatory framework. First, based on the SYstemic Model of Bank Originated Losses (SYMBOL), we calculated the individual probabilities of default (PD) of a representative sample of Spanish credit institutions during the period of 2008–2016. Then, panel data regressions were estimated to explore the influence of the risk indicators on the PD. Our findings on the Spanish banking system could be important to regulatory and supervisory authorities. First, the PD based on the SYMBOL model could be used to analyse bank risk from a regulatory approach. Second, the results might be useful for designing new regulations focused on the key factors that affect the banks’ probability of default. Third, our findings reveal that the emphasis on regulation and supervision should differ by type of entity.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado & Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña, 2018. "Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:1259-:d:142120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/4/1259/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/4/1259/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2011. "Bank capital buffer and risk adjustment decisions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 165-178, August.
    2. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Delis, Manthos D. & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2011. "Regulations, competition and bank risk-taking in transition countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 38-48, January.
    3. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    4. Smith, Jonathan Acosta & Grill, Michael & Lang, Jan Hannes, 2017. "The leverage ratio, risk-taking and bank stability," Working Paper Series 2079, European Central Bank.
    5. Drago, Danilo & Tommaso, Caterina Di & Thornton, John, 2017. "What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-145.
    6. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Bank ratings: what determines their quality? [Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 289-333.
    7. Manthos D. Delis & Panagiotis K. Staikouras, 2011. "Supervisory Effectiveness and Bank Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 511-543.
    8. Blasko, Matej & Sinkey, Joseph Jr., 2006. "Bank asset structure, real-estate lending, and risk-taking," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 53-81, February.
    9. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Jessica Cariboni & Alessandro Fontana & Sven Langedijk & Sara Maccaferri & Andrea Pagano & Marco Petracco Giudici & Michela Rancan & Sebastian Schich, 2016. "Reducing and sharing the burden of bank failures," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(2), pages 29-61.
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    12. Benczur, Peter & Cannas, Giuseppina & Cariboni, Jessica & Di Girolamo, Francesca & Maccaferri, Sara & Petracco Giudici, Marco, 2017. "Evaluating the effectiveness of the new EU bank regulatory framework: A farewell to bail-out?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 207-223.
    13. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    14. Clemens Kool, 2006. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 525-540, December.
    15. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    16. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2010. "Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 626-650, December.
    17. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    18. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    19. Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2010. "The impact of bank ownership concentration on impaired loans and capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 399-408, February.
    20. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    21. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    22. Leung, W.S. & Taylor, N. & Evans, K.P., 2015. "The determinants of bank risks: Evidence from the recent financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 277-293.
    23. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 496-521, October.
    24. Klomp, Jeroen & Haan, Jakob de, 2012. "Banking risk and regulation: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3197-3212.
    25. Laura Chiaramonte & Barbara Casu, 2013. "The determinants of bank CDS spreads: evidence from the financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 861-887, October.
    26. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    27. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    28. Peter Benczur & Katia Berti & Jessica Cariboni & Francesca Erica Di Girolamo & Sven Langedijk & Andrea Pagano & Marco Petracco Giudici, 2015. "Banking Stress Scenarios for Public Debt Projections," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 548, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    29. Oliver Hart & Luigi Zingales, 2011. "A New Capital Regulation for Large Financial Institutions," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 453-490.
    30. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
    31. Ronal Muresano & Andrea Pagano, 2016. "Adapting and Optimizing the Systemic Model of Banking Originated Losses (SYMBOL) Tool to the Multi-core Architecture," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 253-280, August.
    32. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    33. Charles W. Calomiris, 2009. "Financial Innovation, Regulation, and Reform," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 65-91, Winter.
    34. Riccardo Lisa & Stefano Zedda & Francesco Vallascas & Francesca Campolongo & Massimo Marchesi, 2011. "Modelling Deposit Insurance Scheme Losses in a Basel 2 Framework," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 123-141, December.
    35. Khan, Muhammad Saifuddin & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "Funding liquidity and bank risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 203-216.
    36. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ionut – Daniel Pop, 2019. "Systemic Sustainability of European Banking Activity: A Multi-Perspective Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 9(3), pages 49-58, July.
    2. Francisco Zabala Aguayo & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Risks of Banking Services’ Digitalization: The Practice of Diversification and Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-10, May.
    3. Irena Pyka & Aleksandra Nocoń, 2021. "Bank Risk Capital and Its Effectiveness in Selected Euro Area Banking Sectors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, November.
    4. Qianqian Gao & Hong Fan & Shanshan Jiang, 2018. "Macroprudential Regulation for the Chinese Banking Network System with Complete and Random Structures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Shi, Baofeng & Chi, Guotai & Li, Weiping, 2020. "Exploring the mismatch between credit ratings and loss-given-default: A credit risk approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 420-428.
    6. Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.
    2. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    3. Avignone, Giuseppe & Altunbas, Yener & Polizzi, Salvatore & Reghezza, Alessio, 2021. "Centralised or decentralised banking supervision? Evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Vähämaa, Emilia, 2021. "Female leadership and bank performance in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Wiem Ben Jabra & Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2017. "Determinants of European bank risk during financial crisis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1298420-129, January.
    6. Ion Lapteacru, 2022. "What drives the risk of European banks during crises? New evidence and insights," Working Papers hal-03775463, HAL.
    7. Schulte, Markus & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Drivers of solvency risk – Are microfinance institutions different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 403-426.
    8. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Yilmaz, Muhammed H., 2023. "Regulatory oversight and bank risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Ion Lapteacru, 2022. "What drives the risk of European banks during crises? New evidence and insights," Working Papers hal-03625046, HAL.
    10. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Matabaro Borauzima, Luc & Muller, Aline, 2023. "Bank risk-taking and competition in developing banking markets: Does efficiency level matter? Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    12. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Do foreign banks take more risk? Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-39.
    13. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Beyond common equity: The influence of secondary capital on bank insolvency risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    14. Louhichi, Awatef & Boujelbene, Younes, 2017. "Bank capital, lending and financing behaviour of dual banking systems," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 61-79.
    15. Wu, Ji & Guo, Mengmeng & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2019. "Market power and risk-taking of banks: Some semiparametric evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    16. Shailesh Rastogi & Rajani Gupte & R. Meenakshi, 2021. "A Holistic Perspective on Bank Performance Using Regulation, Profitability, and Risk-Taking with a View on Ownership Concentration," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    17. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-140.
    18. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong & Mishra, Anil V., 2023. "Climate risk and bank stability: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 70.
    19. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Abdul RASHID* & Muhammad KHALID**, 2018. "An Assessment Of Bank Capital Effects On Bank-Risk-Taking In Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 28(2), pages 213-234.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:1259-:d:142120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.