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Comparison of Least-Cost Pathways towards Universal Electricity Access in Somalia over Different Timelines

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Sahlberg

    (Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Babak Khavari

    (Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Ismail Mohamed

    (Project Implementation Unit, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Mogadishu, Somalia)

  • Francesco Fuso Nerini

    (Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
    KTH Climate Action Centre, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract
Access to electricity is a prerequisite for development, included in both the Agenda for Sustainable Development and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Still, universal access to electricity is elusive to large parts of the global population. In Somalia, approximately one-third of the population has access to electricity. The country is unique among non-island countries as it has no centralized grid network. This paper applies a geospatial electrification model to examine paths towards universal access to electricity in Somalia under different timelines and with regard to different levels of myopia in the modeling process. This extends the previous scientific literature on geospatial electrification modeling by studying the effect of myopia for the first time and simultaneously presenting the first geospatial electrification analysis focused on Somalia. Using the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET), the least-cost electrification options towards 2030 and 2040, respectively, are compared. We find that under the shorter timeline, a deployment of mini-grids and stand-alone PV technologies alone provides the least-cost option under all but one scenario. However, under the longer timeline, the construction of a national transmission backbone would lower overall costs if there is high demand growth and/or low cost of centralized grid electricity generation. We also compare different levels of myopia in the modeling process. Here, OnSSET is first run directly until 2040, then in five-year time-steps and annual time-steps. We find that running the model directly until 2040 leads to the lowest costs overall. Running the model myopically leads to a sub-optimal, more costly technology mix, with a lock-in effect towards stand-alone systems. On the other hand, the myopic approach does provide additional insights into the development of the system over time. We find that longer-term planning favors the centralized grid network, whereas short-sighted myopic planning can lead to higher costs in the long term and a technology mix with a higher share of stand-alone PV.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Sahlberg & Babak Khavari & Ismail Mohamed & Francesco Fuso Nerini, 2023. "Comparison of Least-Cost Pathways towards Universal Electricity Access in Somalia over Different Timelines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6489-:d:1235786
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nerini, Francesco Fuso & Broad, Oliver & Mentis, Dimitris & Welsch, Manuel & Bazilian, Morgan & Howells, Mark, 2016. "A cost comparison of technology approaches for improving access to electricity services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 255-265.
    2. Clara F. Heuberger & Iain Staffell & Nilay Shah & Niall Mac Dowell, 2018. "Impact of myopic decision-making and disruptive events in power systems planning," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 634-640, August.
    3. Alexandros Korkovelos & Babak Khavari & Andreas Sahlberg & Mark Howells & Christopher Arderne, 2019. "The Role of Open Access Data in Geospatial Electrification Planning and the Achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-Based Case Study for Malawi," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-36, April.
    4. Ioannis Pappis & Andreas Sahlberg & Tewodros Walle & Oliver Broad & Elusiyan Eludoyin & Mark Howells & Will Usher, 2021. "Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    5. Alexandros Korkovelos & Dimitrios Mentis & Morgan Bazilian & Mark Howells & Anwar Saraj & Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki & Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius, 2020. "Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-34, January.
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