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Comparative Fiscal Response Effects Of Debt Relief: An Application To African Hipcs

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  • Danny Cassimon
  • Bjorn Van Campenhout
Abstract
As part of the efforts of the international donor community to scale up aid to Africa, substantial debt relief has been granted in recent years through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and its successor, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. This paper tries to assess, for a sample of 24 African countries that have at least reached decision point status in the HIPC Initiative, to what extent this debt relief has created fiscal space in recipient country budgets, and what, on average, the actual fiscal response effects have been, relative to other types of aid. Inspired by the fiscal response literature, we model public finance behaviour as a system of structural equations and estimate the reduced form parameters in a Vector Autoregressive framework. In general, we are unable to find evidence that debt relief might provoke no or even perverse fiscal responses. On average, debt relief affects public finance behaviour in a desired way, with effects being most similar to those of its most direct substitute, programme grants.

Suggested Citation

  • Danny Cassimon & Bjorn Van Campenhout, 2008. "Comparative Fiscal Response Effects Of Debt Relief: An Application To African Hipcs," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 427-442, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:76:y:2008:i:3:p:427-442
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2008.00201.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Mark McGillivray & Oliver Morrissey, 2000. "Aid fungibility in Assessing Aid: red herring or true concern?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 413-428, April.
    9. John Weeks & Terry McKinley, 2006. "Does Debt Relief Increase Fiscal Space in Zambia? The MDG Implications," Research Report 5, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Mr. Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Understanding Fiscal Space," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/004, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Heller, Peter S, 1975. "A Model of Public Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid, Investment, and Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 429-445, June.
    13. Mark McGillivray & Bazoumana Ouattara, 2005. "Aid, Debt Burden and Government Fiscal Behaviour in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(2), pages 247-269, June.
    14. Danny Cassimon & Bjorn Van Campenhout, 2007. "Aid Effectiveness, Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(4), pages 742-763, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loujaina Abdelwahed, 2023. "Fiscal Responses to Foreign Aid: Does the Permanence of Aid Matter?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(1), pages 26-51.
    2. Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot, 2016. "Réductions de dette, aléa moral et ré-endettement des pays à faible revenu," Post-Print hal-04258196, HAL.
    3. Joshua C. Hall, Serkan Karadas and Minh Tam T. Schlosky, 2018. "Is There Moral Hazard in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative Debt Relief Process?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 1-24, September.
    4. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "Is Africa Actually Developing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 598-613.
    5. Marc Raffinot & Baptiste Venet, 2013. "Low Income Countries, Credit Rationing and Debt Relief: Bye bye international financial market?," Working Papers DT/2013/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    6. Oyadeyi, Olajide O. & Agboola, Olayode W. & Okunade, Solomon O. & Osinubi, Tolulope T., 2024. "The debt-growth nexus and debt sustainability in Nigeria: Are there reasons to be concerned?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 129-152.
    7. Marine De Talancé & Marin Ferry & Miguel Niño-Zarazùa, 2019. "Did Debt Relief Initiatives help to reach the MDGs? A Focus on Primary Education," Erudite Working Paper 2019-23, Erudite.
    8. Ferry, Marin & de Talancé, Marine & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2022. "Less debt, more schooling? Evidence from cross-country micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 153-173.
    9. Danny Cassimon & Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot & Bjorn Van Campenhout, 2013. "Dynamic fiscal impact of the debt relief initiatives on african heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs)," Working Papers DT/2013/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot, 2019. "Curse or Blessing? Has the Impact of Debt Relief Lived up to Expectations? A Review of the Effects of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives for Low-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(9), pages 1867-1891, September.
    11. Marin Ferry, 2021. "Quel bilan tirer des initiatives d'annulation de la dette des pays pauvres très endettés ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 225-240.
    12. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    13. Loujaina Abdelwahed, 2021. "The fiscal management of permanent and temporary foreign aid: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 685-716, May.
    14. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marin Ferry, 2019. "The carrot and stick approach to debt relief: overcoming moral hazard," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 28(3), pages 252-276.
    16. Cassimon, Danny & Van Campenhout, Bjorn & Ferry, Marin & Raffinot, Marc, 2015. "Africa: Out of debt, into fiscal space? Dynamic fiscal impact of the debt relief initiatives on African Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 29-52.
    17. Raffaele De Marchi, 2022. "Public debt in low-income countries: current state, restructuring challenges and lessons from the past," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 739, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. repec:oup:jafrec:v:32:y:2022:i:1:p:26-51. is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot & Baptiste Venet, 2016. "Low Income Countries and External Public Financing : Does Debt Relief Change Anything?," Working Papers DT/2016/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    20. Geske Dijkstra, 2013. "What Did US$18 bn Achieve? The 2005 Debt Relief to Nigeria," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31(5), pages 553-574, September.
    21. Johansson, Pernilla, 2010. "Debt Relief, Investment and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1204-1216, September.
    22. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10905 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Danny Cassimon & Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot & Bjorn van Campenhout, 2017. "Dynamic Fiscal Impact of The Debt Relief Initiatives on African Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs)," Working Papers hal-01489613, HAL.

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