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Spatial Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting House Prices In Six Metropolitan Areas Of South Africa

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  • Rangan Gupta
  • Sonali Das
Abstract
This paper estimates Spatial Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (SBVAR) models, based on the First‐Order Spatial Contiguity and the Random Walk Averaging priors, for six metropolitan areas of South Africa, using monthly data over the period of 1993:07 to 2005:06. We then forecast one‐ to six‐months‐ahead house prices over the forecast horizon of 2005:07 to 2007:06. When we compare forecasts generated from the SBVARs with those from an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models based on the Minnesota prior, we find that the spatial models tend to outperform the other models for large middle‐segment houses; while the VAR and the BVAR models tend to produce lower average out‐of‐sample forecast errors for middle and small‐middle segment houses, respectively. In addition, based on the priors used to estimate the Bayesian models, our results also suggest that prices tend to converge for both large‐ and middle‐sized houses, but no such evidence could be obtained for the small‐sized houses.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Spatial Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting House Prices In Six Metropolitan Areas Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 298-313, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:76:y:2008:i:2:p:298-313
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2008.00191.x
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    1. Rangan Gupta, 2006. "FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY WITH VARs AND VECMs," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 611-628, December.
    2. Eric Schaling & Guangling Dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Working Papers 051, Economic Research Southern Africa.
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    16. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
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    18. Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small‐Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Kabundi & Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Is a DFM well suited for forecasting regional house price inflation?," Working Papers 085, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Aye, G.C. & Goswami, S. & Gupta, R., 2013. "Metropolitan House Prices In Regions of India: Do They Converge?," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 135-144.
    4. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    5. Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2017. "House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 22-28.
    6. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Relationship between House Prices and Inflation in South Africa: An ARDL Approach," Working Papers 201130, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Abebe Beyene & Rangan Gupta & Monaheng Seleteng, 2013. "‘Ripple’ Effects in South African House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 876-894, April.
    8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:rre:publsh:v:40:y:2010:i:2:p:181-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sonali DAS , Rangan GUPTA & Patrick A. KAYA, 2010. "Convergence Of Metropolitan House Prices In South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Efficient Unit Root Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    11. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011. "Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
    12. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2010. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 294-319, October.
    13. Goodness C. Aye & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Metropolitan House Prices In India: Do They Converge?," Working Papers 201220, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Sabarathinam Srinivasan & Suresh Kumarasamy & Zacharias E. Andreadakis & Pedro G. Lind, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Models of Power Grids Driven by Renewable Energy Sources: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-56, July.
    16. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
    17. Ali Azadeh & Mohammad Sheikhalishahi & Ali Boostani, 2014. "A Flexible Neuro-Fuzzy Approach for Improvement of Seasonal Housing Price Estimation in Uncertain and Non-Linear Environments," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 567-582, December.
    18. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy: a comparison between small- and large-scale models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 168-185.
    19. Shihai Dong & Yandong Wang & Yanyan Gu & Shiwei Shao & Hui Liu & Shanmei Wu & Mengmeng Li, 2020. "Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, April.
    20. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Housing Prices: A Case Study of Twenty US States," Working Papers 200912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    22. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort, 2021. "Co-movement between residential and commercial housing prices: evidence from a new database," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 402-407, March.
    23. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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