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Why did Argentina and Uruguay decide to pursue a carbon tax? Fiscal reforms and explicit carbon prices

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  • Martin Rabbia
Abstract
Since 2014, carbon taxes have been spreading in South America. Counterintuitively, while they are primarily considered climate policies, their adoption has been largely driven by causes unrelated to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon tax policymaking literature has overlooked the causes that trigger the causal mechanisms for adopting carbon taxes and has instead centered on parts of the causal mechanism. Focusing on the very beginning of the process, namely the causes triggering the decision to pursue carbon taxes in Argentina and Uruguay, this study both contributes to the carbon tax policymaking literature and to the burgeoning application of logical Bayesian analysis in qualitative studies. According to previous studies, the pursuit of carbon taxes inherently entails political challenges linked, among others, to its potential regressive impacts and effects on industries, which makes the sudden rise of carbon taxes in Argentina and Uruguay surprising. Based on 26 expert interviews and a desk review, the study applies a logical Bayesian analysis to study potential causes structured around mutually exclusive hypotheses consistent with the carbon tax policymaking literature. It shows that the causes for pursuing carbon taxes in Argentina and Uruguay are not primarily related to mitigation. Instead, Argentina conceived carbon taxation as part of a broader reform of its fiscal system, and Uruguay as a way to make explicit the already high implicit carbon price. 自2014年以来，碳税一直在南美洲扩散。反常的是，虽然碳税主要被认为是气候政策，但碳税的采用主要由与温室气体减排无关的原因所推动。碳税决策文献忽略了一系列起因，后者引发了碳税采纳的因果机制，并且文献集中于部分因果机制。通过聚焦于该过程的初始阶段，即引发阿根廷和乌拉圭决定征收碳税的起因，本研究既对碳税决策文献作贡献，也对逻辑贝叶斯分析在定性研究中的新兴应用一事作贡献。根据以往研究，征收碳税本质上会引起政治挑战，这些挑战与“碳税对工业的潜在回归影响及效应”存在联系，使得阿根廷和乌拉圭碳税的突然兴起出乎意料。基于26次专家访谈与一项桌面研究，本研究应用逻辑贝叶斯分析来研究一系列潜在起因，这些起因的建构源于与碳税决策文献相一致的相互排斥的假设。分析表明，阿根廷和乌拉圭征收碳税的主要原因与减排无关。相反，阿根廷将碳税视为其财政体系的更广泛改革的一部分。乌拉圭则将碳税作为一种方式，将已经很高的隐性碳价变为显性。 Desde 2014, los impuestos al carbono se han ido extendiendo en América del Sur. Contraintuitivamente, si bien se consideran principalmente políticas climáticas, su adopción ha sido impulsada en gran medida por causas no relacionadas con la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. La literatura sobre la formulación de políticas de impuestos al carbono ha pasado por alto las causas que desencadenan los mecanismos causales para adoptar impuestos al carbono y, en cambio, se ha focalizado en partes del mecanismo causal. Centrándose en el comienzo mismo del proceso, es decir, las causas que desencadenaron la decisión de aplicar impuestos al carbono en Argentina y Uruguay, este estudio contribuye a la literatura sobre formulación de políticas de impuestos al carbono y a la creciente aplicación del análisis lógico bayesiano en estudios cualitativos. Según estudios previos, el proceso de adopción de impuestos al carbono implica inherentemente desafíos políticos vinculados, entre otros, a sus posibles impactos y efectos regresivos en las industrias, lo que hace que la emergencia repentina de los impuestos al carbono en Argentina y Uruguay sea sorprendente. Basado en 26 entrevistas a expertos y una revisión de documentos; el estudio aplica un análisis bayesiano lógico para estudiar las posibles causas estructuradas en torno a hipótesis mutuamente excluyentes consistentes con la literatura sobre formulación de políticas de impuestos al carbono. El estudio muestra que las causas para aplicar impuestos al carbono en Argentina y Uruguay no están principalmente relacionadas con la mitigación. En cambio, Argentina concibió los impuestos al carbono como parte de una reforma más amplia de su sistema fiscal; y Uruguay como una forma de hacer explícito el ya alto precio implícito del carbono.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Rabbia, 2023. "Why did Argentina and Uruguay decide to pursue a carbon tax? Fiscal reforms and explicit carbon prices," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 40(2), pages 230-259, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revpol:v:40:y:2023:i:2:p:230-259
    DOI: 10.1111/ropr.12517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nils C. Bandelow & Johanna Hornung & Ilana Schröder, 2023. "Market‐based instruments and research infrastructures," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 40(2), pages 182-185, March.

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