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Modelling commuting time in the US: Bootstrapping techniques to avoid overfitting

Author

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  • José Ignacio Gimenez‐Nadal
  • José Alberto Molina
  • Jorge Velilla
Abstract
The research on commuting has emerged in recent decades, but the issue of whether the empirical techniques used are appropriate has not been analysed. Thus, results from prior research could be based on non‐accurate models, leading to misleading conclusions. We apply an algorithmic approach based on bootstrapping, variable selection, and mean absolute prediction errors, which is designed to avoid overfitting. Using the American Time Use Survey, we find that models with a reduced set of explanatory variables have similar accuracy to standard econometric models. Our results shed light on the importance of determining whether models can be overfitted. La investigación sobre los desplazamientos diarios al trabajo ha surgido en las últimas décadas, pero no se ha analizado si las técnicas empíricas utilizadas son las adecuadas. Por lo tanto, los resultados de la investigación previa podrían basarse en modelos que no son precisos, lo que puede llevar a conclusiones erróneas. El estudio aplica un enfoque algorítmico basado en bootstrap, la selección de variables y la media absoluta de los errores de predicción, el cuál se ha diseñado para evitar el sobreajuste. El estudió empleó la Encuesta Americana de Uso del Tiempo y se encontró que los modelos con un conjunto reducido de variables explicativas tienen una precisión similar a los modelos econométricos estándar. Nuestros resultados esclarecen la importancia de determinar si los modelos pueden estar sobreajustados. 最近の数十年の間で通勤に関する研究が行われるようになったが、研究に用いられる実証的な方法が適切か否かについては、これまで分析されていない。すなわち、既存研究の結果は不正確な研究モデルに基づいている可能性があり、誤った結論に至る可能性がある。今回、ブートストラップ法、変数選択、過剰適合にならないように設定した平均絶対誤差率を基にしたアルゴリズムによるアプローチを採用した。American Time Use Survey (米国の生活時間調査)を使用したところ、説明変数が少ないモデルでも標準的な計量経済学的モデルと同等の精度があることがわかった。今回の結果から、モデルが過剰適合になるかを決定することの重要性が明らかになった。

Suggested Citation

  • José Ignacio Gimenez‐Nadal & José Alberto Molina & Jorge Velilla, 2019. "Modelling commuting time in the US: Bootstrapping techniques to avoid overfitting," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 1667-1684, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:98:y:2019:i:4:p:1667-1684
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12424
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    Cited by:

    1. Palacios, Saúl, 2021. "Desplazamientos y autoempleo en Francia: diferencias por género [Commuting y self-employment in France: gender differences]," MPRA Paper 106555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lozano, Javier, 2021. "Commuting y auto-empleo en Italia: diferencias por género y localización geográfica [Commuting and self employment in Italy: gender differences and geographical locations]," MPRA Paper 106279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. J. Ignacio, Giménez-Nadal & Ignacio, De la Fuente, 2021. "Análisis socio-demográfico del tiempo disponible de los miembros del Ejército en España: ¿existen diferencias por género?, ¿es relevante la climatología?1 [Socio-demographic analysis of spanich arm," MPRA Paper 105318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. J. Ignacio, Giménez-Nadal & Ignacio, De la Fuente, 2020. "Asalariados versus autoempleados: Diferencias en el uso del tiempo entre España y Aragón [Employed versus self-employed: Time use differences between Spain and Aragon]," MPRA Paper 105181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2021. "Two-way commuting: Asymmetries from time use surveys," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Rupérez Calavera, Germán & Molina, Jose Alberto, 2022. "PIB per cápita y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en Europa," MPRA Paper 113512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gutierrez-Lythgoe, Antonio, 2023. "Movilidad urbana sostenible: Predicción de demanda con Inteligencia Artificial [Sustainable Urban Mobility: Demand Prediction with Artificial Intelligence]," MPRA Paper 117103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Claver Sanz, Raúl, 2022. "¿Cómo evoluciona el nivel educativo entre generaciones en Asia (Pacífico y Oriente Medio)? [How is educational attainment evolving between generations in Asia (Pacific and Middle East)?]," MPRA Paper 111792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hernández, Jaime, 2021. "Tiempo de desplazamiento al puesto laboral y relación con los empleados autónomos: el caso de las mujeres trabajadoras alemanas [Commuting time and relationship with self-employed: the case of Germ," MPRA Paper 106040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Oliete Peirona, Natalia, 2021. "Tiempos de desplazamiento hogar-trabajo en Austria [Home-work commuting times in Austria]," MPRA Paper 106819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Belloc, Ignacio, 2021. "El tiempo de desplazamiento al lugar de trabajo en el Reino Unido: Diferencias entre asalariados y autoempleados [Commuting time in the United Kingdom: Differences between wage-earners and self-emp," MPRA Paper 108260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Gutiérrez, Antonio, 2022. "Movilidad urbana y datos de alta frecuencia [Urban mobility and high frequency data]," MPRA Paper 114854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Margalejo Hernández, Cristina, 2021. "Commuting y autoempleo en Luxemburgo [Commuting and self-employment in Luxemburgo]," MPRA Paper 106183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Oliva, Andres, 2021. "Estimación del tiempo de desplazamiento al trabajo para los trabajadores portugueses: diferencias entre autoempleados y asalariados [Estimation of commuting time for Portuguese workers: differences," MPRA Paper 107176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jorge González-Chapela & Raquel Ortega-Lapiedra, 2021. "Reform of the Personal Income Tax in Spain: Effects on Internal Mobility of the Unemployed," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 166-181, March.
    16. Claver, Raúl, 2021. "Determinantes del tiempo de desplazamiento al trabajo en la población femenina auto-empleada de Dinamarca [Pattern of Commuting time of female self-worked population in Denmark]," MPRA Paper 106373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Calvo, Elena, 2021. "Commuting y autoempleo en Países Bajos [Commuting and self-employment in Netherlands]," MPRA Paper 107322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Claver Sanz, Raúl, 2022. "Movilidad entre generaciones en países africanos: evidencia para la educación [Intergenerational mobility in African countries: evidence for education]," MPRA Paper 111678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio & de la Fuente, Ignacio, 2021. "¿Son saludables y sostenibles los desplazamientos diarios de las personas? Evidencia empírica en Aragón y España [Are people's daily commutes healthy and sustainable? Empirical evidence in Aragon a," MPRA Paper 105454, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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