[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jregsc/v63y2023i5p1192-1227.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Noy
  • Toshihiro Okubo
  • Eric Strobl
Abstract
The ongoing global pandemic has brought into sharp relief the possible interactions between the epidemiology of a virus, the structure of the economy and society that becomes exposed to it, and the actions chosen by government, individuals, and communities to combat it or ameliorate its economic impact. Surprisingly, there has not been sufficient research on these economic and policy interactions of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic—the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. This paper focuses on Japan, which as a minor participant of and was not directly affected by World War I. We exploit the diversity of experiences with the pandemic and its attendant policy responses across Japanese prefectures; and investigate the importance of the pandemic's toll (measured by excess mortality), and of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), in determining the pandemic's economic impact. We do so by focusing on the production and employment in the textile sector, given the availability of data and the general importance of the textile sector for emerging economies (as Japan was at the time). We find a significant adverse impact of the pandemic on textiles (almost 30% for an average prefectural excess mortality shock) and indeed find that the implemented NPIs were effective in ameliorating around one half of the pandemic's adverse economic consequences, especially for textile output (rather than employment). Furthermore, these NPIs were more effective when the excess mortality was higher. In this case, there was no trade‐off between money and life, but rather the two were complimentary.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2023. "The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1192-1227, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:63:y:2023:i:5:p:1192-1227
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12660
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12660
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jors.12660?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hobday, R.A. & Cason, J.W., 2009. "The open-air treatment of pandemic influenza," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(S2), pages 236-242.
    2. Howard Bodenhorn, 2020. "Business in a Time of Spanish Influenza," NBER Working Papers 27495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 93-106.
    4. Hunter, Janet, 1992. "Textile factories, tuberculosis and the quality of life in industrializing Japan," Economic History Working Papers 22459, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    5. Thomas A. Garrett, 2009. "War And Pestilence As Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914–1919," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 711-725, October.
    6. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew & Marcus, Jan, 2020. "Using Difference-in-Differences to Identify Causal Effects of COVID-19 Policies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 153-158.
    7. repec:aei:rpaper:1008563887 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lin, Ming-Jen & Liu, Elaine M., 2014. "Does in utero exposure to Illness matter? The 1918 influenza epidemic in Taiwan as a natural experiment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-163.
    9. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    10. C. Justin Cook & Jason M. Fletcher & Angela Forgues, 2019. "Multigenerational Effects of Early-Life Health Shocks," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1855-1874, October.
    11. Tang, John P., 2017. "The Engine And The Reaper: Industrialization And Mortality In Late Nineteenth Century Japan," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 145-162.
    12. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2007. "Trade bloc formation in inter-war Japan.: A gravity model analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 214-236, June.
    14. Arimoto, Yutaka & Nakajima, Kentaro & Okazaki, Tetsuji, 2014. "Sources of productivity improvement in industrial clusters: The case of the prewar Japanese silk-reeling industry," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 27-41.
    15. Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Shake Hands or Shake Apart? International Relationship of Japan with Global Blocs," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 35-64.
    16. Daniel M. Bernhofen & John C. Brown, 2005. "An Empirical Assessment of the Comparative Advantage Gains from Trade: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 208-225, March.
    17. Richard E. Nelson, 2010. "Testing the Fetal Origins Hypothesis in a developing country: evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(10), pages 1181-1192, October.
    18. Suzuki, Masao, 1995. "Success Story? Japanese Immigrant Economic Achievement and Return Migration, 1920–1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 889-901, December.
    19. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
    20. Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Jan Marcus, 2020. "Difference-in-Differences to Identify Causal Effects of COVID-19 Policies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1870, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Ogasawara, Kota, 2018. "The long-run effects of pandemic influenza on the development of children from elite backgrounds: Evidence from industrializing Japan," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 125-137.
    22. Saxonhouse, Gary, 1974. "A Tale of Japanese Technological Diffusion in the Meiji Period," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 149-165, March.
    23. Brian Beach & Joseph P. Ferrie & Martin H. Saavedra, 2018. "Fetal Shock or Selection? The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Human Capital Development," NBER Working Papers 24725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "The Role of Face-to-face Contact on Innovation: Evidence from the Spanish Flu Pandemic in Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 22-007E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    2. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel & de Zwart, Pim, 2021. "A bitter epidemic: The impact of the 1918 influenza on sugar production in Java," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "Controlling Funds Allocation for the War: The Experience of Japan in the Late 1930s," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1192, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Nguyen Doan & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic: What Happened after SARS in 2003?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8687, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    2. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2021. "Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(2), pages 173-195, June.
    5. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    6. Guillaume Chapelle, 2020. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Working Papers hal-03389177, HAL.
    7. Jonas Helgertz & Tommy Bengtsson, 2019. "The Long-Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden, 1968–2012," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1389-1425, August.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7m2qa73prn89eogubjm0rc58le is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:journl:hal-03389177 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7m2qa73prn89eogubjm0rc58le is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2022. "Short‐ and medium‐run health and literacy impacts of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic in Brazil," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 997-1025, November.
    13. Joël Floris & Laurent Kaiser & Harald Mayr & Kaspar Staub & Ulrich Woitek, 2022. "Investigating survivorship bias: the case of the 1918 flu pandemic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(21), pages 2047-2052, December.
    14. Philipp Ager & Katherine Eriksson & Ezra Karger & Peter Nencka & Melissa A. Thomasson, 2024. "School Closures during the 1918 Flu Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 266-276, January.
    15. Mario F. Carillo & Tullio Jappelli, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CSEF Working Papers 568, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    16. Sebastian Vollmer & Juditha Wójcik, 2017. "The long-term consequences of the global 1918 influenza pandemic: A systematic analysis of 117 IPUMS international census data sets," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 242, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    17. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Chaturica Athukorala, 2020. "The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918–20: An interpretative survey in the time of COVID-19," CEH Discussion Papers 09, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    18. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2012. "What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden," Working Paper Series 911, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    19. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2020. "COVID-19, Race, and Redlining," GLO Discussion Paper Series 603, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    21. Correia, Sergio & Luck, Stephan & Verner, Emil, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 917-957, December.
    22. Guillaume Chapelle, 2022. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 43-81.
    23. Bengtsson, Tommy & Helgertz, Jonas, 2015. "The Long Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden 1968-2012," IZA Discussion Papers 9327, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:63:y:2023:i:5:p:1192-1227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.