Denote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y. For a given very small value of p>0, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) is defined as E { X &7C Y > Q Y ( 1 − p ) } , where Q Y (1−p) is the (1−p)th quantile of the distribution of Y. The MES is an important factor when measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions. For a wide non-parametric class of bivariate distributions, we construct an estimator of the MES and establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator when p↓0, as the sample size n→∞. Since we are in particular interested in the case p=O(1/n), we use extreme value techniques for deriving the estimator and its asymptotic behaviour. The finite sample performance of the estimator and the relevance of the limit theorem are shown in a detailed simulation study. We also apply our method to estimate the MES of three large US investment banks."> Denote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y. For a given very small value of p>0, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) is defined as E { X &7C Y > Q Y ( 1 − p ) } , where Q Y (1−p) is the (1−p)th quantile of the distribution of Y. The MES is an important factor when measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions. For a wide non-parametric class of bivariate distributions, we construct an estimator of the MES and establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator when p↓0, as the sample size n→∞. Since we are in particular interested in the case p=O(1/n), we use extreme value techniques for deriving the estimator and its asymptotic behaviour. The finite sample performance of the estimator and the relevance of the limit theorem are shown in a detailed simulation study. We also apply our method to estimate the MES of three large US investment banks."> Denote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y. For a given very small value of p">
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Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall: the mean when a related variable is extreme

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  • Juan-Juan Cai
  • John H. J. Einmahl
  • Laurens Haan
  • Chen Zhou
Abstract
type="main" xml:id="rssb12069-abs-0001"> Denote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y. For a given very small value of p>0, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) is defined as E { X &7C Y > Q Y ( 1 − p ) } , where Q Y (1−p) is the (1−p)th quantile of the distribution of Y. The MES is an important factor when measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions. For a wide non-parametric class of bivariate distributions, we construct an estimator of the MES and establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator when p↓0, as the sample size n→∞. Since we are in particular interested in the case p=O(1/n), we use extreme value techniques for deriving the estimator and its asymptotic behaviour. The finite sample performance of the estimator and the relevance of the limit theorem are shown in a detailed simulation study. We also apply our method to estimate the MES of three large US investment banks.

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  • Juan-Juan Cai & John H. J. Einmahl & Laurens Haan & Chen Zhou, 2015. "Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall: the mean when a related variable is extreme," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(2), pages 417-442, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:417-442
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    1. Zinoviy Landsman & Emiliano Valdez, 2003. "Tail Conditional Expectations for Elliptical Distributions," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 55-71.
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    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. Drees, Holger & Huang, Xin, 1998. "Best Attainable Rates of Convergence for Estimators of the Stable Tail Dependence Function," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 25-47, January.
    5. Einmahl, J.H.J., 1987. "Multivariate empirical processes," Other publications TiSEM 4d74fa6b-5281-48ea-aa4d-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Vernic, Raluca, 2006. "Multivariate skew-normal distributions with applications in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 413-426, April.
    7. Einmahl, J.H.J. & de Haan, L.F.M. & Li, D., 2006. "Weighted approximations of tail copula processes with applications to testing the bivariate extreme value condition," Other publications TiSEM 18b65ac3-ba79-4bff-ad53-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Harry Joe & Haijun Li, 2011. "Tail Risk of Multivariate Regular Variation," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 671-693, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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