[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v77y2022i2p1325-1369.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Liquidity Fluctuations in Over‐the‐Counter Markets

Author

Listed:
  • VINCENT MAURIN
Abstract
This paper proposes a theory of excess price fluctuations in over‐the‐counter secondary markets. When heterogeneous assets trade under asymmetric information, a quality effect emerges: high liquidity lowers the quality of the pool of sellers and decreases future liquidity. Cyclical equilibria can arise even without fundamental shocks. In a cycle, investors speculate by bidding up the price of low‐quality assets, anticipating a high resale price at the peak. When this resale effect is strong, cycles disappear and multiple steady states coexist with different levels of liquidity. The model rationalizes empirical patterns for corporate bonds and housing in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Maurin, 2022. "Liquidity Fluctuations in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1325-1369, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:77:y:2022:i:2:p:1325-1369
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13106
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jofi.13106?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maarten C. W. Janssen & Santanu Roy, 2002. "Dynamic Trading in a Durable Good Market with Asymmetric Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(1), pages 257-282, February.
    2. Saki Bigio, 2015. "Endogenous Liquidity and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1883-1927, June.
    3. Mailath George J. & Okuno-Fujiwara Masahiro & Postlewaite Andrew, 1993. "Belief-Based Refinements in Signalling Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 241-276, August.
    4. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Geissler & Kyle Mangum & James W Roberts & Andrew Karolyi, 2020. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of Investors in the Housing Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5212-5247.
    5. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
    6. Gergana Jostova & Stanislava Nikolova & Alexander Philipov & Christof W. Stahel, 2013. "Momentum in Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1649-1693.
    7. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Maxwell, William & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2006. "Market transparency, liquidity externalities, and institutional trading costs in corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 251-288, November.
    8. Kim, Kyungmin, 2017. "Information about sellers' past behavior in the market for lemons," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 365-399.
    9. Guillaume Plantin, 2009. "Learning by Holding and Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 395-412.
    10. Fuchs, William & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2015. "Government interventions in a dynamic market with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 371-406.
    11. Guillaume Plantin, 2009. "Learning by Holding and Liquidity," Post-Print hal-03415735, HAL.
    12. Veronica Guerrieri & Robert Shimer, 2014. "Dynamic Adverse Selection: A Theory of Illiquidity, Fire Sales, and Flight to Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1875-1908, July.
    13. John Moore, 2013. "Contagious Illiquidity I: Contagion through Time," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 231, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    14. Thomas Philippon & Vasiliki Skreta, 2012. "Optimal Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 1-28, February.
    15. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2016. "Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 969-1000.
    16. Pablo Kurlat, 2013. "Lemons Markets and the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1463-1489, June.
    17. Samuelson, William F, 1984. "Bargaining under Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 995-1005, July.
    18. Maarten C. W. Janssen & Vladimir A. Karamychev, 2002. "Cycles and multiple equilibria in the market for durable lemons," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 20(3), pages 579-601.
    19. Greenwood, Robin & Shleifer, Andrei & You, Yang, 2019. "Bubbles for Fama," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 20-43.
    20. Inderst, Roman, 2005. "Matching markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 145-166, April.
    21. Ivashina, Victoria & Sun, Zheng, 2011. "Institutional stock trading on loan market information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 284-303, May.
    22. François R. Velde & Warren E. Weber & Randall Wright, 1999. "A Model of Commodity Money, with Applications to Gresham's Law and the Debasement Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 291-323, January.
    23. Enoksen, F.A. & Landsnes, Ch.J. & Lučivjanská, K. & Molnár, P., 2020. "Understanding risk of bubbles in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 129-144.
    24. Moreno, Diego & Wooders, John, 2016. "Dynamic markets for lemons: performance, liquidity, and policy intervention," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), May.
    25. Igal Hendel & Alessandro Lizzeri & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2005. "Efficient Sorting in a Dynamic Adverse-Selection Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 467-497.
    26. James Albrecht & Fabien Postel‐Vinay & Susan Vroman, 2013. "An Equilibrium Search Model Of Synchronized Sales," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 473-493, May.
    27. Briana Chang, 2018. "Adverse Selection and Liquidity Distortion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 275-306.
    28. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    29. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/11qd47gdim8v799d6edke9i68q is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Jack Bao & Jun Pan, 2013. "Bond Illiquidity and Excess Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(12), pages 3068-3103.
    31. Bajaj, Ayushi, 2018. "Undefeated equilibria of the Shi–Trejos–Wright model under adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 957-986.
    32. Jean Tirole, 2012. "Overcoming Adverse Selection: How Public Intervention Can Restore Market Functioning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 29-59, February.
    33. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Morales, Eduardo & Nathanson, Charles G., 2014. "Housing dynamics: An urban approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 45-56.
    34. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2016. "Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 969-1000.
    35. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2011. "Payments and liquidity under adverse selection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 191-205.
    36. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    37. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    38. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2017. "Liquidity: A New Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(2), pages 371-440, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Strobl, Günter, 2022. "A theory of procyclical market liquidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zijian, 2020. "Liquidity and private information in asset markets: To signal or not to signal," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Taneli Mäkinen & Francesco Palazzo, 2017. "The double bind of asymmetric information in over-the-counter markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. William Fuchs & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2019. "Costs and benefits of dynamic trading in a lemons market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 105-127, July.
    4. Barsanetti, Bruno & Camargo, Braz, 2022. "Signaling in dynamic markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Madison, Florian, 2019. "Frictional asset reallocation under adverse selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 115-130.
    6. Bajaj, Ayushi, 2018. "Undefeated equilibria of the Shi–Trejos–Wright model under adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 957-986.
    7. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
    8. Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2019. "Constrained efficiency with adverse selection and directed search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 568-593.
    9. Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini, 2020. "Adverse Selection With Heterogeneously Informed Agents," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1307-1358, August.
    10. Madison, Florian, 2024. "Asymmetric information in frictional markets for liquidity: Collateralized credit vs asset sale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    11. Vincent Maurin, 2016. "Liquidity Fluctuations in Over the Counter Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan & Shengxing Zhang, 2023. "Dynamic Asset-Backed Security Design," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 3282-3314.
    13. Palazzo, Francesco, 2017. "Search costs and the severity of adverse selection," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 171-197.
    14. Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2022. "Optimal taxation in asset markets with adverse selection," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Michael Junho Lee & Daniel Neuhann, 2019. "A Dynamic Theory of Collateral Quality and Long-Term Interventions," Staff Reports 894, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Fuchs, William & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2015. "Government interventions in a dynamic market with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 371-406.
    17. Choi, Michael, 2018. "Imperfect information transmission and adverse selection in asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 619-649.
    18. Vladimir Asriyan & William Fuchs & Brett Green, 2019. "Liquidity Sentiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3813-3848, November.
    19. Toni Ahnert & Martin Kuncl, 2019. "Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending Standards," Staff Working Papers 19-47, Bank of Canada.
    20. Auster, Sarah & Gottardi, Piero, 2019. "Competing mechanisms in markets for lemons," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:77:y:2022:i:2:p:1325-1369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.