[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v56y2018i3p1706-1723.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cigarette Taxes And Illicit Trade In Europe

Author

Listed:
  • James E. Prieger
  • Jonathan Kulick
Abstract
Cigarettes are highly taxed in Europe, but at higher prices some consumers substitute more toward illicit cigarettes. The illicit retail trade in cigarettes (IRTC) includes counterfeit, untaxed, and smuggled cigarettes. Some existing literature includes claims that taxes are not an important determinant of IRTC. Using data from the European Union, we find the opposite: raising prices leads to substantial increases in IRTC. A €1 increase in tax/pack is expected to increase illicit market share by 5 to 12 percentage points and increase illicit cigarette sales by 29% to 95%. The results are robust to alternative specifications and data. (JEL I18, H26, K42)

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Prieger & Jonathan Kulick, 2018. "Cigarette Taxes And Illicit Trade In Europe," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1706-1723, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:56:y:2018:i:3:p:1706-1723
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12564
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecin.12564?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiou, Lesley & Muehlegger, Erich, 2008. "Crossing the Line: The Effect of Cross Border Cigarette Sales on State Excise Tax Revenues," Working Paper Series rwp08-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Baltagi, Badi H & Levin, Dan, 1986. "Estimating Dynamic Demand for Cigarettes Using Panel Data: The Effects of Bootlegging, Taxation and Advertising Reconsidered," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 148-155, February.
    3. Galbraith, John W. & Kaiserman, Murray, 1997. "Taxation, smuggling and demand for cigarettes in Canada: Evidence from time-series data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 287-301, June.
    4. Rajeev Goel, 2008. "Cigarette smuggling: price vs.nonprice incentives," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 587-592.
    5. Saba, Richard P, et al, 1995. "The Demand for Cigarette Smuggling," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 189-202, April.
    6. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    7. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    8. Matthew Harding & Ephraim Leibtag & Michael F. Lovenheim, 2012. "The Heterogeneous Geographic and Socioeconomic Incidence of Cigarette Taxes: Evidence from Nielsen Homescan Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 169-198, November.
    9. Prieger James E. & Kulick Jonathan, 2015. "Violence in Illicit Markets: Unintended Consequences and the Search for Paradoxical Effects of Enforcement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1263-1295, July.
    10. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    11. Lovenheim, Michael F., 2008. "How Far to the Border?: The Extent and Impact of Cross-Border Casual Cigarette Smuggling," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(1), pages 7-33, March.
    12. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    13. Prieger, James E. & Kulick, Jonathan, 2014. "Unintended consequences of enforcement in illicit markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 295-297.
    14. James Nonnemaker & Eric Finkelstein & Mark Engelen & Thomas Hoerger & Matthew Farrelly, 2009. "Have Efforts To Reduce Smoking Really Contributed To The Obesity Epidemic?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 366-376, April.
    15. Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-wei & Barnett, Paul G. & Manning, Willard G. & Sung, Hai-Yen, 1996. "Do cigarette producers price-discriminate by state? An empirical analysis of local cigarette pricing and taxation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 499-512, August.
    16. Stehr, Mark, 2005. "Cigarette tax avoidance and evasion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 277-297, March.
    17. repec:bla:econom:v:55:y:1988:i:217:p:107-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Marie Thursby & Richard Jensen & Jerry Thursby, 1991. "Smuggling, Camouflaging, and Market Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 789-814.
    19. Thursby, Jerry G. & Thursby, Marie C., 2000. "Interstate Cigarette Bootlegging: Extent, Revenue Losses, and Effects of Federal Intervention," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(1), pages 59-78, March.
    20. Gruber, Jonathan & Sen, Anindya & Stabile, Mark, 2003. "Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 821-842, September.
    21. Delipalla, Sophia & O'Donnell, Owen, 2001. "Estimating tax incidence, market power and market conduct: The European cigarette industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-908, May.
    22. Coats, R. Morris, 1995. "A Note on Estimating Cross-Border Effects of State Cigarette Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(4), pages 573-84, December.
    23. Austan Goolsbee & Michael F. Lovenheim & Joel Slemrod, 2010. "Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes, and Competition from the Internet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-154, February.
    24. Thursby, Jerry G. & Thursby, Marie C., 2000. "Interstate Cigarette Bootlegging: Extent, Revenue Losses, and Effects of Federal Intervention," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 1), pages 59-78, March.
    25. Ryan S. Sullivan & Donald H. Dutkowsky, 2012. "The Effect of Cigarette Taxation on Prices," Public Finance Review, , vol. 40(6), pages 687-711, November.
    26. Coats, R. Morris, 1995. "A Note on Estimating Cross-Border Effects of State Cigarette Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 48(4), pages 573-584, December.
    27. A. Yurekli & O. Sayginsoy, 2010. "Worldwide organized cigarette smuggling: an empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 545-561.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James E. Prieger, 2023. "Tax noncompliance: The role of tax morale in smokers' behavior," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 653-673, October.
    2. Recher, Vedran, 2020. "Illegal tobacco demand: The case of Western Balkan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 182-193.
    3. Davor Mikulić & Goran Buturac, 2020. "In What Measure Is Public Finance Sustainability Threatened by Illicit Tobacco Trade: The Case of Western Balkan Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Lennon, Conor & Shohfi, Tom, 2021. "Unbridled spirit: Illicit markets for bourbon whiskey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1025-1045.
    5. Dorman,Peter, 2022. "Alligators in the Arctic and How to Avoid Them," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316516270, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    2. Lesley Chiou & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(3), pages 621-650, September.
    3. Lovenheim, Michael F., 2008. "How Far to the Border?: The Extent and Impact of Cross-Border Casual Cigarette Smuggling," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(1), pages 7-33, March.
    4. Stehr, Mark, 2005. "Cigarette tax avoidance and evasion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 277-297, March.
    5. Austan Goolsbee & Michael F. Lovenheim & Joel Slemrod, 2010. "Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes, and Competition from the Internet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-154, February.
    6. Chiou, Lesley & Muehlegger, Erich, 2008. "Crossing the Line: The Effect of Cross Border Cigarette Sales on State Excise Tax Revenues," Working Paper Series rwp08-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    7. Chiou Lesley & Muehlegger Erich, 2008. "Crossing the Line: Direct Estimation of Cross-Border Cigarette Sales and the Effect on Tax Revenue," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, December.
    8. Christian Ben Lakhdar & Nicolas Gérard Vaillant & François-Charles Wolff, 2016. "Does smoke cross the border? Cigarette tax avoidance in France," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    9. Lovenheim, Michael F. & Slemrod, Joel, 2010. "The fatal toll of driving to drink: The effect of minimum legal drinking age evasion on traffic fatalities," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 62-77, January.
    10. Leal, Andrés & López-Laborda, Julio & Rodrigo, Fernando, 2009. "Prices, taxes and automotive fuel cross-border shopping," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 225-234.
    11. Shu Wang & David Merriman & Frank Chaloupka, 2019. "Relative Tax Rates, Proximity, and Cigarette Tax Noncompliance: Evidence from a National Sample of Littered Cigarette Packs," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 276-311, March.
    12. Donald H. Dutkowsky & Ryan S. Sullivan, 2014. "Excise Taxes, Consumer Demand, Over-Shifting, and Tax Revenue," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 111-125, September.
    13. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2017. "Cross-border commuting and consuming: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(20), pages 2011-2026, April.
    14. repec:mea:meawpa:14284 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Goel, Rajeev K. & Payne, James E. & Saunoris, James W., 2016. "Spillovers from the beer market to U.S. cigarette demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 292-297.
    16. Bishop, James, 2015. "Interacting effects of state cigarette taxes on smoking participation," MPRA Paper 66609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:2:p:135-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Andrés Leal & Julio López-Laborda & Fernando Rodrigo, 2010. "Cross-Border Shopping: A Survey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 135-148, May.
    19. Courtemanche, Charles, 2009. "Rising cigarette prices and rising obesity: Coincidence or unintended consequence?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 781-798, July.
    20. Howard Chernick & David Merriman, 2013. "Using Littered Pack Data to Estimate Cigarette Tax Avoidance in Nyc," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(3), pages 635-668, June.
    21. Leah K. Lakdawala & David Simon, 2016. "The Intergenerational Consequences of Tobacco Policy," Working papers 2016-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    22. William N. Evans & Jeanne S. Ringel & Diana Stech, 1999. "Tobacco Taxes and Public Policy to Discourage Smoking," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 13, pages 1-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:56:y:2018:i:3:p:1706-1723. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.