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Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China

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  • Naoyuki Yoshino
  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Abstract
Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan's lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investment to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy-makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2016. "Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 23-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:24:y:2016:i:2:p:23-47
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cwe.12149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi & Rosa Farboudmanesh, 2016. "Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-102, January.
    2. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006. "The causes of Japan's `lost decade': The role of household consumption," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 378-400, December.
    3. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Yoshikazu Kobayashi, 2016. "Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 33-51.
    4. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Tao Sun, 2013. "Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 2013/243, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Hometown Investment Trust Funds: An Analysis of Credit Risk," ADBI Working Papers 505, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.
    7. Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Ghahraman Abdoli & Asadollah Farzinvash, 2013. "An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 8(4), pages 571-591, December.
    8. Naoyuki Yoshino & Eisuke Sakakibara, 2002. "The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 110-126.
    9. Naoyuki Yoshino & Tomohiro Hirano, 2011. "Pro-cyclicality of the Basel Capital Requirement Ratio and Its Impact on Banks-super-∗," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(2), pages 22-36, Summer.
    10. Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2014. "Monetary policies and oil price determination: an empirical analysis," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Three Arrows of “Abenomics” and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy," ADBI Working Papers 492, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary (ed.), 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Oil Market," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, Springer, edition 1, number 978-4-431-55797-5.
    13. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji (ed.), 2013. "Hometown Investment Trust Funds," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-4-431-54309-1, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-44.
    2. Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Sayoko Shimizu, 2020. "The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2600-2621, October.
    3. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Chang, Youngho, 2019. "Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2017. "Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables," ADBI Working Papers 777, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Satoru Hagino & Jiyoung Kim, 2021. "Compilation and analysis of international from-whom-to-whom financial stock table for Japan, Korea, the United States, and China," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.

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