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Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

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Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.

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  • Bahattin Buyuksahin & Kun Mo & Konrad Zmitrowicz, 2016. "Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Autumn), pages 35-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2016:y:2016:i:autumn16:p:35-46
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    Cited by:

    1. Killins, Robert N., 2020. "The impact of oil on equity returns of Canadian and U.S. Railways and airlines," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Mario Fortin & Marcelin Joanis & Philippe Kabore & Luc Savard, 2022. "Determination of Quebec's Quarterly Real GDP and Analysis of the Business Cycle, 1948–1980," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 261-288, November.
    3. Dash, Minati, 2023. "“Our People Can’t Hold the Line!” – Extractive Capital, Fragile Ecologies and Politics of Dispossession and Accumulation in Eastern India," Ecology, Economy and Society - the INSEE Journal, Indian Society of Ecological Economics (INSEE), vol. 6(02), July.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Iran F. Machado & Silvia Figueirôa, 2022. "Mining history of Brazil: a summary," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 253-265, June.
    6. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb1824 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Angélica Domínguez-Cardoza & Adelina Garamow & Josefin Meyer, 2022. "Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2020, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2024. "Is there a copper super-cycle?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(2), pages 359-380, June.
    9. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "World Commodity Prices and Economic Activity in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 347-374, April.
    11. David M. Williams, 2021. "Pay and Productivity in Canada: Growing Together, Only Slower than Ever," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 3-26, Spring.
    12. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2024. "Do supercycles dominate commodity price movements?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    14. Kakade, Kshitij Abhay & Mishra, Aswini Kumar, 2021. "The impact of macroeconomic and oil shocks on India’s non-ferrous metal prices: A structural-VAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 30-50.
    15. Razek, Noha H.A. & Michieka, Nyakundi M., 2019. "OPEC and non-OPEC production, global demand, and the financialization of oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 201-225.
    16. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Research papers & Policy papers on Commodities & Energy 1801, Policy Center for the New South.
    17. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy 1801, Policy Center for the New South.

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