[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/afc/cliome/v13y2019i1p25-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Brée

    (Centre for Demographic Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

  • David de la Croix

    (IRES and CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

Abstract
To better understand the forces underlying fertility decisions, we look at the forerunners of fertility decline. In Rouen, France, completed fertility dropped between 1640 and 1792 from 7.4 to 4.2 children. We review possible explanations and keep only three: increases in materialism, in women’s empowerment, and in returns to education. The methodology is one of analytic narrative, bringing together descriptive evidence with a theoretical model. We accordingly propose a theory showing that we can discriminate between these explanations by looking at childlessness and its social gradient. An increase in materialism or, under certain conditions, in women’s empowerment, leads to an increase in childlessness, while an increase in the return to education leads to a decrease in childlessness. Looking at the Rouen data, childlessness was clearly on the rise, from 4% in 1640 to 10% at the end of the eighteenth century, which appears to discredit the explanation based on increasing returns to education, at least for this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Brée & David de la Croix, 2019. "Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 13(1), pages 25-54, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:13:y:2019:i:1:p:25-54
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-017-0166-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-017-0166-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to journal subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11698-017-0166-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    2. David De La Croix & Fabio Mariani, 2015. "From Polygyny to Serial Monogamy: A Unified Theory of Marriage Institutions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 565-607.
    3. Daniel Aaronson & Fabian Lange & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2014. "Fertility Transitions along the Extensive and Intensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3701-3724, November.
    4. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    5. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    6. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    7. Thomas Baudin, 2008. "Religion and Fertility : The French Connection," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00348829, HAL.
    8. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 774-811.
    9. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula Gobbi, 2020. "Endogenous Childlessness and Stages of Development," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 83-133.
    10. Kevin McQuillan, 2004. "When Does Religion Influence Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 25-56, March.
    11. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, June.
    12. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March.
    13. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2000_55n2_0394 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420.
    15. David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2015. "The longevity of famous people from Hammurabi to Einstein," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 263-303, September.
    16. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. ""Decessit sine prole" Childlessness, Celibacy, and Survival of the Richest in Pre-Industrial England," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    17. de la Croix,David, 2014. "Fertility, Education, Growth, and Sustainability," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107443051, September.
    18. repec:cup:jdemec:v:81:y:2015:i:01:p:59-66_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 413-436, April.
    20. Becker, Gary S, 1993. "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 385-409, June.
    21. Doepke, Matthias, 2015. "Gary Becker On The Quantity And Quality Of Children," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 59-66, March.
    22. Tiago Cavalcanti & Stephen Parente & Rui Zhao, 2007. "Religion in macroeconomics: a quantitative analysis of Weber’s thesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 105-123, July.
    23. David de la Croix & Marie Vander Donckt, 2010. "Would Empowering Women Initiate the Demographic Transition in Least Developed Countries?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 85-129.
    24. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    25. Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés & Weisdorf, Jacob Louis, 2010. "Product variety and the demographic transition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 74-76, April.
    26. Rohan Dutta & David K. Levine & Nicholas W. Papageorge & Lemin Wu, 2018. "Entertaining Malthus: Bread, Circuses, And Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 358-380, January.
    27. Thomas Baudin, 2012. "The Optimal Trade-Off Between Quality and Quantity with Unknown Number of Survivors," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 94-113, April.
    28. Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Fecundity, Fertility and The Formation of Human Capital," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 925-960.
    29. Eli BERMAN & Laurence R. IANNACCONE & Giuseppe RAGUSA, 2018. "From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline among European Catholics," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 149-187, June.
    30. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1972_27n4-5_0701 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner, 2010. "Social Change: The Sexual Revolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 893-923, November.
    32. Michael Bar & Oksana Leukhina, 2010. "Demographic Transition and Industrial Revolution: A Macroeconomic Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 424-451, April.
    33. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Vries,Jan de, 2008. "The Industrious Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521895026, September.
    35. Paula Gobbi, 2013. "A model of voluntary childlessness," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 963-982, July.
    36. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2000_55n1_0104 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Ronald LEE, 2015. "Becker and the Demographic Transition," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 67-74, March.
    38. repec:cai:poeine:pope_401_0117 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. repec:cup:jdemec:v:81:y:2015:i:01:p:67-74_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Vries,Jan de, 2008. "The Industrious Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521719254, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David de la Croix & Mara Vitale, 2023. "Women in European academia before 1800—religion, marriage, and human capital," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(4), pages 506-532.
    2. Bethencourt, Carlos & Santos-Torres, Daniel, 2023. "Gender-role identity in adolescence and women fertility in adulthood," MPRA Paper 116321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    4. Cédric Chambru & Paul Maneuvrier‐Hervieu, 2023. "The evolution of wages in early modern Normandy (1600–1850)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 917-940, August.
    5. Le Bris, David & Tallec, Ronan, 2021. "The European Marriage Pattern and its Positive Consequences Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660-1789," MPRA Paper 105324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Faustine Perrin, 2022. "On the origins of the demographic transition: rethinking the European marriage pattern," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 431-475, September.
    7. Jianchoun Dou, 2021. "Variety, Fertility, and Long-term Economic Growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    8. Paula E Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2021. "Childless Aristocrats: Inheritance and the Extensive Margin of Fertility," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(637), pages 2089-2118.
    9. Boonaert, Eva & Hoyweghen, Kaat Van & Feyisa, Ashenafi Duguma & Goos, Peter & Maertens, Miet, 2021. "Twofold Gendered Preferences in the Quantity-Quality Trade-Off Impact the Demographic Transition in Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315224, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. ""Decessit sine prole" Childlessness, Celibacy, and Survival of the Richest in Pre-Industrial England," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    11. Thomas TB Baudin & David De la Croix & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2019. "Childlessness and Economic Development: a Survey," Working Papers ECARES 2019-03, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    13. Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2020. "Childless Aristocrats. Inheritance and the Extensive Margin of Fertility," Working Papers ECARES 2020-03, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Perrin, Faustine, 2022. "Can the historical gender gap index deepen our understanding of economic development?," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 379-417, September.
    15. David Bris & Ronan Tallec, 2023. "The European marriage pattern and the sensitivity of female age at marriage to economic context. Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660–1789," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(2), pages 187-231, May.
    16. Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2020. "Childless Aristocrats. Inheritance and the extensive margin of fertility," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/316217, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Blanc, Guillaume & Wacziarg, Romain, 2020. "Change and persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730–1895," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas BAUDIN & David de la CROIX & Paula GOBBI, 2015. "Development Policies when Accounting for the Extensive Margin of Fertility," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    3. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2019. "Childlessness and Economic Development: A Survey," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    5. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. ""Decessit sine prole" Childlessness, Celibacy, and Survival of the Richest in Pre-Industrial England," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Sunha Myong & JungJae Park & Junjian Yi, 2021. "Social Norms and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2429-2466.
    7. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula Gobbi, 2020. "Endogenous Childlessness and Stages of Development," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 83-133.
    8. de la Croix, David & Perrin, Faustine, 2018. "How far can economic incentives explain the French fertility and education transition?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 221-245.
    9. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Battaglia, Marianna & Chabé-Ferret, Bastien & Lebedinski, Lara, 2021. "Segregation, fertility, and son preference: the case of the Roma in Serbia," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 233-260, June.
    11. Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, 2024. "Understanding the relationship between women’s education and fertility decline: Evidence from Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 63, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    13. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    14. Marie‐Louise Leroux & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "The optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies policies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1454-1479, July.
    15. Katharina Mühlhoff, 2022. "Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 575-614, September.
    16. Sascha O. Becker & Francesco Cinnirella & Ludger Woessmann, 2013. "Does women's education affect fertility? Evidence from pre-demographic transition Prussia," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(1), pages 24-44, February.
    17. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    18. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420.
    20. Philip DeCicca & Harry Krashinsky, 2023. "The effect of education on overall fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 471-503, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Childlessness; Quality-quantity trade-off; Forerunners; Women’s empowerment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:13:y:2019:i:1:p:25-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afcccea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.