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Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts, and Earnings Dynamics

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  • Neele Balke
  • Thibaut Lamadon
Abstract
This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment. We develop an equilibrium search model and characterize the optimal contract offered by firms. Risk-neutral firms provide partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. The model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from Sweden. Firms absorb persistent worker and firm shocks, with respective passthrough values of 26 and 10 percent. We evaluate the effects of redistributive policies and find that 30 percent of government insurance is undone by crowding out firm insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Neele Balke & Thibaut Lamadon, 2022. "Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts, and Earnings Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2139-2177, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:7:p:2139-77
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161622
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Matthew Staiger, 2025. "Cyclical Worker Flows: Cleansing vs. Sullying," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    2. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Matthew Staiger, 2025. "Cyclical Worker Flows: Cleansing vs. Sullying," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    3. Yurdagul, Emircan & Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Manaresi, Francesco & Rachedi, Omar, 2021. "Minimum Wages and Insurance within the Firm," CEPR Discussion Papers 16823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Magnac, Thierry, 2023. "Capital humain et recherche d'emploi: un mariage heureux - Human Capital and Search Models: A Happy Match," TSE Working Papers 23-1489, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Thierry Magnac, 2024. "Human Capital and Search Models: A Happy Match," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 75(1), pages 11-29.
    6. Mingyong Hong & Jiao Long & Wenjun Zhuo, 2023. "Clan Networks, Spatial Selection, and Farmland Transfer Contracts: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Rasmus Lentz & Nicolas Roys, 2024. "Training and Search On the Job," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 123-146, July.
    8. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Long-Term One-Sided Commitment Contracts," NBER Working Papers 30518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Krueger, Dirk & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 17757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Abrahams, Scott, 2024. "Downward minimum wage rigidity: Evidence from a temporary four-month increase in St. Louis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 30-47.
    11. Rasmus Lentz & Nicolas Roys, 2024. "Training and Search On the Job," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 123-146, July.
    12. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2024. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    13. Fahn, Matthias & MacLeod, W. Bentley & Muehlheusser, Gerd, 2023. "Past and Future Developments in the Economics of Relational Contracts," IZA Discussion Papers 16427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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