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Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War

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  • Kim, Sung Eun
  • Margalit, Yotam
Abstract
In response to President Trump instigating conflict over trade with China, the Chinese government countered by issuing tariffs on thousands of products worth over USD 110 billion in US exports. We explore whether China's tariffs reflected a strategy to apply counterpressure by hurting political support for the president's party. We also assess the strategy's impact on the 2018 midterm elections and examine the mechanism underlying the resulting electoral shift. We find strong evidence that Chinese tariffs systematically targeted US goods that had production concentrated in Republican-supporting counties, particularly when located in closely contested Congressional districts. This apparent strategy was successful: targeted areas were more likely to turn against Republican candidates. Using data on campaign communications, local search patterns online, and an original national survey, we find evidence that voters residing in areas affected by the tariffs were more likely to learn about the trade war, recognize its adverse impact, and assign the Republicans responsibility for the escalating dispute. These findings demonstrate how domestic political institutions can be a source of vulnerability in interstate disputes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Sung Eun & Margalit, Yotam, 2021. "Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 1-38, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:1-38_2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hua Zhou & Jiachen Fan & Xue Yang & Kaifeng Duan, 2023. "Food Export Stability, Political Ties, and Land Resources," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
    3. Ryan Brutger & Stephen Chaudoin & Max Kagan, 2023. "Trade Wars and Election Interference," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    5. Junjie Zhao, 2023. "Breaking the general election effect. The impact of the 2020 US presidential election on Chinese economy and counter strategies," Papers 2304.11518, arXiv.org.
    6. repec:ags:aaea22:335549 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sung Eun Kim & Sujin Cha, 2022. "Do Voters Reward Politicians for Trade Liberalization? Evidence from South Korea," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 751-780, October.

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