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Policy and the Dynamics of Political Competition

Author

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  • LAVER, MICHAEL
Abstract
This paper proposes a model that takes the dynamic agent-based analysis of policy-driven party competition into a multiparty environment. In this, voters continually review party support and switch parties to increase their expectations; parties continually readapt policy positions to the shifting affiliations of voters. Different algorithms for party adaptation are explored, including “Aggregator” (adapt party policy to the ideal policy positions of party supporters), Hunter (repeat policy moves that were rewarded; otherwise make random moves), Predator (move party policy toward the policy position of the largest party), and “Sticker” (never change party policy). Strong trends in the behavior of parties using different methods of adaptation are explored. The model is then applied in a series of experiments to the dynamics of a real party system, described in a published opinion poll time series. This paper reports first steps toward endogenizing key features of the process, including the birth and death of parties, internal party decision rules, and voter ideal points.

Suggested Citation

  • Laver, Michael, 2005. "Policy and the Dynamics of Political Competition," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-281, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:99:y:2005:i:02:p:263-281_05
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    Cited by:

    1. Eligius M. T. Hendrix & Annelies Ridder & Agnieszka Rusinowska & M. Elena Sáiz, 2013. "Coalition Formation: The Role of Procedure and Policy Flexibility," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 407-427, May.
    2. Serap Elustu, 2021. "Energy Security of the European Union: The Relationship between Energy Import Dependency and Economic Growth," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 133-162, June.
    3. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    4. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, 2009. "Simplicity and reality in computational modeling of politics," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 26-46, March.
    5. Ugur Ozdemir & Yüksel Alper Ecevit, 2020. "Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 247-266, December.
    6. Ohnishi, Teruaki, 2012. "Evolution of groups with a hierarchical structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 5978-5986.
    7. Joseph Ornstein & Robert Norman, 2014. "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 1-9, October.
    8. Noam Bergman & Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Jonathan Köhler & Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans, 2008. "Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 1-7.
    9. Daniel Ladley & James Rockey, 2010. "Party Formation and Competition," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Mar 2014.
    10. Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans & Noam Bergman, 2008. "Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 283-301, December.
    11. Jean-François Laslier & Bilge Ozturk Goktuna, 2016. "Opportunist politicians and the evolution of electoral competition," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 381-406, May.
    12. Hans Haan, 2008. "The dynamics of functioning investigating societal transitions with partial differential equations," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 302-319, December.
    13. Lapatinas, Athanasios & Garas, Antonios, 2016. "The role of networks in firms’ multi-characteristics competition and market-share inequality," MPRA Paper 68959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Köhler, Jonathan & Turnheim, Bruno & Hodson, Mike, 2020. "Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Jasper Muis, 2010. "Simulating Political Stability and Change in the Netherlands (1998-2002): an Agent-Based Model of Party Competition with Media Effects Empirically Tested," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 13(2), pages 1-4.
    16. Robi Ragan, 2015. "Computational social choice," Chapters, in: Jac C. Heckelman & Nicholas R. Miller (ed.), Handbook of Social Choice and Voting, chapter 5, pages 67-80, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Florence So, 2018. "Attract voters or appease activists? Opposition parties’ dilemma and party policy change," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 30(2), pages 246-266, April.
    18. Garas, Antonios & Lapatinas, Athanasios, 2017. "The role of consumer networks in firmsÂ’ multi-characteristics competition and market share inequality," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 76-86, December.
    19. Lichteblau, Josephine & Giebler, Heiko & Wagner, Aiko, 2020. "Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 65, pages 1-1.
    20. Michael J. Ensley & Michael W. Tofias & Scott De Marchi, 2009. "District Complexity as an Advantage in Congressional Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 990-1005, October.
    21. Rajiv Krishnan Kozhikode, 2016. "Dormancy as a Strategic Response to Detrimental Public Policy," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 189-206, February.
    22. Scott E. Page, 2008. "Uncertainty, Difficulty, and Complexity," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 20(2), pages 115-149, April.
    23. Forand, Jean Guillaume, 2014. "Two-party competition with persistent policies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 64-91.
    24. Bilge Öztürk Göktuna, 2019. "A dynamic model of party membership and ideologies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(2), pages 209-243, April.
    25. James H. Fowler & Michael Laver, 2008. "A Tournament of Party Decision Rules," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(1), pages 68-92, February.

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