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The Dynamics Of Stagnation: A Panel Analysis Of The Onset And Continuation Of Stagnation

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  • Bluhm, Richard
  • de Crombrugghe, Denis
  • Szirmai, Adam
Abstract
This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test whether stagnation can be predicted by institutional characteristics and political shocks and compare the impacts of such variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants of stagnation episodes using dynamic linear and nonlinear models. In addition, we analyze whether the effects of the included variables on the onset of stagnation differ from their effects on the continuation of stagnation. We find that inflation, negative regime changes, real exchange rate undervaluation, financial openness, and trade openness have significant effects on both the onset and the continuation of stagnation. Only for trade openness is there robust evidence of a differential impact. Open economies have a significantly lower probability of falling into stagnation, but once in stagnation they do not recover faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Bluhm, Richard & de Crombrugghe, Denis & Szirmai, Adam, 2016. "The Dynamics Of Stagnation: A Panel Analysis Of The Onset And Continuation Of Stagnation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(8), pages 2010-2045, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:08:p:2010-2045_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2022. "Specialize or diversify? And in What? Trade composition, quality of specialization, and persistent growth [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 301-337.
    2. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Kaba, Ibrahima & Szirmai, Adam, 2015. "Structural change and the ability to sustain growth," MERIT Working Papers 2015-048, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.

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