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A simple model of the juggernaut effect of trade liberalisation

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  • Richard Baldwin
  • Frédéric Robert-Nicoud
Abstract
This paper posits a political economy model where (i) reciprocity in multilateral trade talks results in a one-off tariff cut below their unilateral level because reciprocal trade talks turn each nation?s exporters into anti-protectionists at home and (ii) this one-off global tariff is self-reinforcing because it reshapes the political economy landscape via entry and exit.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2015. "A simple model of the juggernaut effect of trade liberalisation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 70-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2015-q3-143-5
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    11. Richard Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2015. "A simple model of the juggernaut effect of trade liberalisation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 70-79.
    12. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2012. "Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-16.
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    15. Richard E. Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2007. "Entry and Asymmetric Lobbying: Why Governments Pick Losers," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1064-1093, September.
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    19. Baldwin, Richard, 2000. "Regulatory Protectionism, Developing Nations and a Two-Tier World Trade System," CEPR Discussion Papers 2574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Brainard, S. Lael & Verdier, Thierry, 1997. "The political economy of declining industries: Senescent industry collapse revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 221-237, February.
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    22. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2012. "Profit Shifting And Trade Agreements In Imperfectly Competitive Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1067-1104, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2015. "A simple model of the juggernaut effect of trade liberalisation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 70-79.
    2. Eric Conglin Chi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2024. "Dynamic preferential trade agreement formation and the role of political economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 748-781, April.
    3. Jakubik, Adam & Keck, Alexander & Piermartini, Roberta, 2022. "Trade policy implications of a changing world: Tariffs and import market power," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2022-14, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Kuenzel, David J. & Sharma, Rishi R., 2021. "Preferential trade agreements and MFN tariffs: Global evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Beverelli, Cosimo & Boffa, Mauro & Keck, Alexander, 2014. "Trade policy substitution: Theory and evidence from Specific Trade Concerns," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2014-18, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Marco Fugazza & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2014. "The “Emulator Effect” of the Uruguay Round on US Regionalism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 1049-1078, November.
    7. Richard Baldwin, 2016. "The World Trade Organization and the Future of Multilateralism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 95-116, Winter.
    8. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Sperlich, Stefan & Trachsel, Virginie, 2016. "Export Promotion: what works?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Baldwin, Richard, 2010. "Unilateral tariff liberalisation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    11. Richard Baldwin, 2014. "WTO 2.0: Governance of 21st century trade," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 261-283, June.
    12. Bekkers, Eddy & Keck, Alexander, 2024. "Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2024-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2014. "Race-to-the-bottom Tariff Cutting," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 444-458, August.
    14. Yasar, Mahmut, 2013. "Political Influence of Exporting and Import-Competing Firms: Evidence from Eastern European and Central Asian Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 154-168.
    15. Eric Conglin Chi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2024. "Bilateralism vs. multilateralism: Role of political economy for the prospect of multilateral free trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 870-900, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reciprocal trade liberalisation; Juggernaut effect;

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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