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Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
Abstract
In der modernen Konjunkturtheorie sind Konjunkturzyklen als Schwankungen des Auslastungsgrades des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials definiert. Das ifo Institut veröffentlicht im Rahmen des ifo Konjunkturtests originäre vierteljährliche Daten über die Kapazitätsauslastung im verarbeitenden Gewerbe und im Baugewerbe in Deutschland. Das bereits sehr klare konjunkturelle Signal der ifo Kapazitätsauslastung kann durch eine zusätzliche Glättung noch verstärkt werden. Besonders vorteilhaft an der ifo Kapazitätsauslastung ist zudem, dass die Glättung auch am aktuellen Rand der Zeitreihe sehr stabil ist. Die hier präsentierten Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Aussagewert der ifo Kapazitätsauslastung hinsichtlich der Industriekonjunktur – zieht man als Referenzreihe die zyklische Komponente der vierteljährlichen realen Bruttowertschöpfung im verarbeitenden Gewerbe heran – sehr hoch ist. Zudem vermag die Kapazitätsauslastung die Wendepunkte der zyklischen Komponente der realen Bruttowertschöpfung im Durchschnitt koinzident zu signalisieren. Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung besitzt für die Konjunkturanalyse die Vorzüge, dass sie sehr zeitnah verfügbar ist, keinen Revisionen unterliegt und ein klares Signal enthält, ohne große kurzfristige Störungen. Damit erfüllt sie wichtige Eigenschaften, die gute Konjunkturindikatoren aufweisen sollten. Einer ihrer größten Vorteile ist jedoch: Sie zeigt die Konjunkturentwicklung an, ohne dass eine vorherige Trendbereinigung notwendig ist. Damit entfallen die Probleme, die eine solche Trendbereinigung mit sich bringt. Unterschiedliche Methoden können nämlich unterschiedliche Konjunkturzyklen extrahieren, und die Schätzungen an den Rändern der Zeitreihe können sehr instabil sein. Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung gibt ohne Trendbereinigung ein klares Konjunktursignal. Daher ist sie ein zentraler Indikator für die Beurteilung der aktuellen Konjunkturentwicklung.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:16:p:15-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for Cyclical Dominance und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, April.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Drei Monitorsysteme zur Analyse der sächsischen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 33-39, December.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    5. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, July.
    6. Franziska Fobbe & Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Elektromotoren, Energieversorgung und Erziehung: Die Güte der entstehungsseitigen ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 58-63, June.
    7. Klaus Abberger & Stefan Sauer & Christian Seiler, 2011. "Der Test des Tests im ifo Konjunkturtest Handel," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52, September.
    8. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2008: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(03), pages 21-25, February.
    11. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    12. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, September.
    13. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 17-23, November.
    14. Jan Kluge, 2011. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden – Warum wächst Dresden langsamer als der Rest Sachsens?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 11-19, October.
    15. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    16. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kapazitätsauslastung; Industrie; Konjunktur; Konjunkturindikator; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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