[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbk/journl/v9y2020i2p19-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rate Policy and Exchange Rates Volatility Lessons from Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Haryo Kuncoro

    (Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta, Indonesia)

Abstract
Whether or not inflation targeting adoption leads to increased volatility of exchange rates is controversial. The volatility increases with inflation targeting as a result of the flexible exchange rate regime. Others argue that inflation targeting delivers the best outcomes in terms of lower exchange rate volatility. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether interest rate policy in inflation targeting frameworks – that is subjected to control inflation rate – may reduce the volatility of exchange rates. To test the hypothesis, we use monthly data in the case of Indonesia over the period 2005(7)-2016(7). Several control variables are introduced in the regressions. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag model proves the interest rate policy and foreign exchange intervention fail to reduce the exchange rates volatility. It seems inflation targeting in Indonesia puts too much emphasis on stabilizing the domestic currency thus leading to benign neglect of stabilizing its external value, ultimately resulting in increased exchange rate volatility. These findings suggest that central bank credibility plays an important role in conducting inflation targeting policy which operates primarily through a signalling effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Haryo Kuncoro, 2020. "Interest Rate Policy and Exchange Rates Volatility Lessons from Indonesia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 19-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:19-42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol9no2-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    3. Salle, Isabelle & Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre, 2013. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-128.
    4. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    5. Roberto Chang, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Reserves Accumulation, and Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 487, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cem Akyurek & Ali M Kutan, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Policy Rates and Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(3), pages 460-493, September.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    9. Prasertnukul, Weera & Kim, Donghun & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2010. "Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 173-182, August.
    10. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2012. "Exchange Rate Asymmetry and Flexible Exchange Rates under Inflation Targeting Regimes: Evidence from Four East and Southeast Asian Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 893-908, November.
    11. Victor Pontines, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Treatment Effect Regression Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 25-39, March.
    12. Nikola Fabris & Nina Vujanović, 2017. "The Impact of Financial Dollarization on Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from Serbia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 6(2), pages 23-43.
    13. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
    16. repec:idn:journl:v:21:y:2018:i:2:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 200-212.
    18. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    19. Marjan Petreski, 2012. "Output Volatility and Exchange Rate Considerations Under Inflation Targeting : A Review," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 528-537.
    20. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2009. "Does inflation targeting lead to excessive exchange rate volatility?," Economics wp43, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    21. Naoto Osawa, 2006. "Monetary Policy Responses to the Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from Three East Asian Inflation-Targeting Countries," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    22. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    23. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    24. Mr. M. Nowak & Mr. Ketil Hviding & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2004/189, International Monetary Fund.
    25. René Cabral & Francisco G. Carneiro & André Varella Mollick, 2020. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 605-626, February.
    26. Ball, Christopher P. & Reyes, Javier, 2008. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise? A broader perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 308-326, March.
    27. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    28. repec:idn:journl:v:16:y:2013:i:1j:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 420-439, June.
    30. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
    31. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Woong-Ki Sohn, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Pass-through Rate in East Asian Economies," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 139-159, June.
    32. Anna Nordstrom & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone & Seiichi Shimizu & Turgut Kisinbay & Jorge Restrepo, 2009. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Abdurohman & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2017. "The Behavior Of Fiscal Policy In Indonesia In Response To Economic Cycles," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 377-401, June.
    34. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    35. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    36. Umit Bulut, 2018. "Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(3), pages 73-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim A. Onour & Bruno S. Sergi, 2021. "The impact of a political shock on foreign exchange markets in a small and open economy: A dynamic modelling approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 137-152.
    2. Le Dinh Hac & Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy & Nguyen Ngoc Thach & Bui Minh Chuyen & Pham Thi Hong Nhung & Tran Duc Thang & Tran Tuan Anh, 2021. "Enhancing risk management culture for sustainable growth of Asia commercial bank -ACB in Vietnam under mixed effects of macro factors," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(3), pages 291-307, March.
    3. Mahdi Yazdani & Mohammad Nikzad, 2021. "Output Losses from Currency Crises and the Role of Central Bank," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 79-97.
    4. Haryo Kuncoro & Caroline Geetha & Fafurida Fafurida, 2024. "Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in the Inflation-Targeting Regime," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 2-15, June.
    5. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2022. "An Application of Index Number Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence from Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 165-186.
    6. Joan Sebastián Rojas Rincón & Andrés Mauricio Mejía Martínez & Andrés Ricardo Riveros Tarazona & Julio César Acosta-Prado, 2024. "Analysis of Systemic Risk on the Financial Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of the Colombian Banking Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Dennij Mandeij, 2020. "Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Rupiah Against US Dollar and its Volatility: Application of Asset Approach," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 6(6), pages 323-336.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Post-Print halshs-00881359, HAL.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    3. René Cabral & Francisco G. Carneiro & André Varella Mollick, 2020. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 605-626, February.
    4. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    5. Benlialper, Ahmet & Cömert, Hasan & Öcal, Nadir, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate policy in inflation targeting developing countries," IPE Working Papers 86/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    6. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sek, Siok Kun, 2008. "Interactions between monetary policy and exchange rate in inflation targeting emerging countries: the case of three East Asian countries," MPRA Paper 12034, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Dec 2008.
    8. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Verma, Akhilesh K, 2023. "Cross border flows, financial intermediation and interactions of policy rules in a small open economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 369-393.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    14. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & Cesar Pabon, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-473, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2022. "Exchange rate misalignments, capital flows and volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Sek, Siok Kun & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through and volatility: Impacts on domestic prices in four Asian countries," MPRA Paper 11130, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2008.
    17. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Li, Jie, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-72.
    18. Padha, Vimarsh & Chaubal, Aditi, 2024. "Impact of global liquidity on Indian financial markets and monetary policy outcomes: An ARDL approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
    20. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    21. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," MPRA Paper 27118, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting; Interest Rate Policy; International Reserve; Exchange Rates Volatility; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:19-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbmgvme.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.