[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000107/007514.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Diego Vásquez
  • Mauricio Villamizar
Abstract
En este trabajo se analizan, con base en un modelo VEC, los determinantes de corto y largo plazos de la tasa de cambio real en Colombia en el período 1958-2005, la cual depende en el corto y largo plazos de los activos externos netos del país, de las productividades relativas en Colombia y en el exterior (el llamado efecto Balassa-Samuelson), de los términos de intercambio y del gasto público. El efecto de la tasa de cambio nominal sobre la real persiste durante varios anos, pero desaparece en el largo plazo. El trabajo también compara la tasa de cambio actual con las predicciones de largo plazo y concluye que la desalineación presente es relativamente reducida. Ello significa que solo podrá elevarse la tasa de cambio real con una reducción sustancial del gasto público y de la deuda externa, y que poco puede hacer el Banco Central para modificarla.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007514
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.4904
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.4904
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/Espe.4904?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    5. Masson, Paul R. & Kremers, Jeroen & Horne, Jocelyn, 1994. "Net foreign assets and international adjustment: The United States, Japan and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-40, February.
    6. Bofinger, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248568.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt16z3s2s2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    8. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, April.
    11. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
    14. Andrés Felipe Arias & Hernando Zuleta, 1997. "Tasa de Cambio Real e Inversión. La Experiencia de 1990-1996," Borradores de Economia 076, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Jorge Toro & Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Efectividad De La Intervención Discrecional Del Banco De La República En El Mercado Cambiario," Borradores de Economia 2411, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    18. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    19. Jaume Ventura, 2003. "Towards a Theory of Current Accounts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 483-512, April.
    20. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    21. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    23. Joyce, J-P & Kamas, L, 1995. "The Real Exchange Rate in Colombia : Short-Run Dynamics and Long-Run Equilibrium," Papers 95-20, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
    24. Andrés Felipe Arias & Martha Misas, 1998. "Neutralidad monetaria en la tasa de cambio real colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    25. Sebastian Edwards & Domingo F. Cavallo & Arminio Fraga & Jacob Frenkel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 31-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    27. Juan José Echavarría & Alejandro Gaviria Uribe, 1992. "Los determinantes de la tasa de cambio y la coyuntura actual en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 22(4), pages 101-112, December.
    28. Hugo Oliveros C. & Carlos Huertas C., 2003. "Desequilibrios nominales y reales del tipo de cambio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 21(43), pages 32-65, June.
    29. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    30. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    31. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    33. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, April.
    34. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    36. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    37. Jesús G. Otero, 1997. "Los determinantes de la tasa de cambio real en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(57), pages 282-319, December.
    2. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, 2005. "Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," Borradores de Economia 358, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2008. "Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Colombia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/401, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jair Ojeda Joya & Joan Granados & Carolina Arteaga, 2013. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 31(72), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nicólas Hernández & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4679, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    9. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," Cuadernos de Desarrollo Económico 7586, Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico.
    10. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    11. Orlando Lorduy Herrera, 2015. "La paridad del poder adquisitivo: nueva evidencia para Colombia y Latinoamérica," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, February.
    12. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 365-395, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    13. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913.
    14. Luis Alejandro Lee P & Angélica María Quiroga E., 2010. "Descomposición histórica de choques del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: un enfoque DSGE," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-41, June.
    15. Eduardo Wiesner, 2011. "Colombia: la percepción de justicia distributiva y la demanda política por estabilidad macroeconómica," Documentos CEDE 8739, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, New Economic School (NES).
    2. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, New Economic School (NES).
    3. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. niaz ahmad mohd, Naseem & yusop, Zulkornain & masron, Tajul ariffin, 2009. "How did the Malaysian real exchange rate misalign during the 1997 Asian crisis?," MPRA Paper 44922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Priscila Fernandes Ribeiro, 2011. "Levado pelos Fundamentos? Estimando o Desalinhamento Cambial Norte-Americano a partir de Técnicas de Cointegração," Discussion Papers 1674, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    7. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    8. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    11. Ms. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Mr. Enrique Alberola Ila & Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 1999/175, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
    13. Marit Hinnosaar & Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2005. "Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Estonian kroon," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    15. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    17. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
    18. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 2010_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, March.
    20. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de cambio real; equilibrio; nivel de largo plazo; modelo decorrección de errores; cointegración; impulso-respuesta.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000107:007514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Espe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.