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2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2021 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia state offices. Incumbent Democratic governor Ralph Northam was ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms. Businessman Glenn Youngkin won the Republican nomination at the party's May 8 convention, which was held in 37 polling locations across the state,[3] and was officially declared the nominee on May 10.[4] The Democratic Party held its primary election on June 8,[5] which former governor Terry McAuliffe easily won.[6]

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
← 2017 November 2, 2021[1] 2025 →
Turnout54.9% Increase 7.7[2]
 
Nominee Glenn Youngkin Terry McAuliffe
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,663,158 1,599,470
Percentage 50.58% 48.64%
Youngkin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McAuliffe:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Ralph Northam
Democratic

Elected Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican

In the general election, Youngkin defeated McAuliffe by nearly 64,000 votes in what was considered a mild upset because McAuliffe led over Youngkin in the polls until right before election day.[7] Youngkin was the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009. The economy, education, public health, and cultural issues were centerpieces of Youngkin's campaign.[8][9][10] Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of critical race theory within state schools on "day one", push back against certain COVID-19 restrictions including vaccination mandates and mask mandates, and advocate for small government within the state of Virginia.[11][12][13]

Democrats tried to portray Youngkin as a political ally of Donald Trump, who lost Virginia in 2020, and Trump did indeed express support for Youngkin. Walking a fine line between welcoming the endorsement and demonstrating independence, Youngkin was able to successfully appeal to both Republicans and independents.[14] Political analysts believe that the main reason for the Democratic Party's defeat in Virginia was that voters were not satisfied with the performance of President Joe Biden, with whom McAuliffe allied himself.[15][16]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Jennifer Carroll Foy

Federal officials

State delegates

Local official

Organizations

Labor unions

Individuals

Lee J. Carter

Individual

Justin Fairfax

Foreign politician

Terry McAuliffe

Governor

U.S. representative

State delegates

State senators

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Jennifer McClellan

State delegates
[56]

State senators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Debates

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Democratic Primary Debates
Date Venue Video Terry McAuliffe Jennifer Carroll Foy Jennifer McClellan Justin Fairfax Lee J. Carter
April 6, 2021 Virginia State University [65] Participant Participant Participant Participant Participant

McClellan opened the debate calling for a “nominee who will excite and expand our base. I’ve spent 31 years building this party and electing Democrats at the local, state and national level. It’s not enough to give someone something to vote against. We’ve got to give people something to vote for,” McClellan said. Foy said in her opening statement that she is presenting bold ideas that past politicians have failed to bring to Virginia. The pointed remark came before she went after the record of McAuliffe, the first criticism of the night directed at the presumptive frontrunner.[66] Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax compared scrutiny of his sexual assault allegations to that of the cases of George Floyd and Emmett Till in the debate.[67] McAuliffe mainly avoided directly responding to the attacks, focusing instead on his record as governor, the support he's received during his campaign and, stopping Glenn Youngkin in November's general election. Later in the debate, Carter called McAuliffe out for mentioning Youngkin and Trump so often. “The debate that we’re supposed to be having on this stage is a debate about the future of this commonwealth,” he said. “It’s about what we stand for and what we’re going to fight for. And this is the first opportunity for the Democratic Party to define what it is going to be after Donald Trump is gone. And he is gone. So, we can’t just be a party that is opposed to the other guys. We have to fight for something.” Carter, a self-described socialist, reiterated his proposal to use tax revenue from the marijuana industry to fund reparations.[66]

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jennifer
Carroll Foy 		Lee
Carter 		Justin
Fairfax 		Terry
McAuliffe 		Jennifer
McClellan 		Other Undecided
Roanoke College[68] May 24 – June 1, 2021 637 (LV) ± 3.9% 11% 1% 5% 49% 9% 0% 24%
Christopher Newport University[69] April 11–20, 2021 806 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% 1% 8% 47% 6% 2% 31%
Public Policy Polling (D)[70] April 12–13, 2021 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 8% 4% 7% 42% 8% – 29%
Christopher Newport University[71] January 31 – February 14, 2021 488 (RV) ± 4.9% 4% 1% 12% 26% 4% 0% 54%
YouGov Blue (D)[72] February 6–11, 2021 235 (RV) ± 7.4% 7% 6% 6% 43% 8% 0% 30%
Global Strategy Group (D)[73][A] January 12–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% – 14% 42% 6% – 30%
Expedition Strategies (D)[74][B] December 2020 – (LV) – 5% – 16% 32% 8% – 38%

Results

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Results by county and independent city:
  McAuliffe
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 307,367 62.10%
Democratic Jennifer Carroll Foy 98,052 19.81%
Democratic Jennifer McClellan 58,213 11.76%
Democratic Justin Fairfax 17,606 3.56%
Democratic Lee J. Carter 13,694 2.77%
Total votes 494,932 100.00%

Republican convention

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The Republican nomination process for the 2021 elections was the subject of a lengthy and acrimonious debate within the Republican Party of Virginia.[76][77] On December 5, 2020, the state Republican Party voted to hold a convention instead of a primary by a vote of 39 to 35.[78] State Senator Amanda Chase initially indicated that she would run as an independent,[79] but she later decided to seek nomination at the convention; on the day of the convention, she acknowledged that if she did not win the nomination, she may reconsider and run as an independent, although she eventually decided against this.[80] Faced with pressure from the Chase campaign and activists to return to a primary, the state committee debated scrapping the convention on January 23, 2021. These efforts were unsuccessful and the party reaffirmed their decision to hold a convention.[81] On February 9, 2021, the Chase campaign sued the Republican Party of Virginia, arguing that the convention is illegal under COVID-19-related executive orders signed by Governor Ralph Northam.[82] The Richmond Circuit Court dismissed the Chase campaign's lawsuit on February 19, 2021.[83] The Republican Party of Virginia announced on March 26, 2021, that seven gubernatorial candidates had qualified to appear on the convention ballot.[84] On April 11, 2021, the state Republican Party Rules Committee voted to tabulate the ballots by hand; three days later, however, the committee reversed itself and decided to use a vendor's software-based tabulation method.[76]

On April 20, 2021, five candidates (Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin) participated in a forum at Liberty University in Lynchburg.[85] Two candidates, Octavia Johnson and Pete Snyder, did not attend the forum.[85][86]

The state Republican convention to select the party's nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general took place on May 8, 2021,[77][76] in "unassembled" format,[76] with ballots to be cast remotely at up to 37 locations statewide[77] using ranked-choice voting.[76] The complex process fueled internal party disputes.[87] Up to 40,000 people were anticipated to become delegates, although not all would necessarily cast votes.[76] Local Republican Party leaders control the application process to become a delegate, decide who can participate (voter registration in Virginia does not include a space to indicate party affiliation), and select the convention voting site.[87] In the preceding Virginia Republican gubernatorial convention, 12,000 participated.[76]

Orthodox Jewish Virginia Republicans asked the party to allow absentee voting for religious reasons (May 8 is on the Jewish Sabbath), but the State Central Committee initially voted down the request, failing to achieve the 75% supermajority needed to change the rules.[88] However, the Virginia GOP ultimately reversed course and allowed those with religious objections to vote in the May 8 convention via absentee ballots. Republican candidates Kirk Cox, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin had criticized the previous decision to not accommodate Orthodox Jews.[89]

Cox received crucial endorsements of Bob McDonnell and George Allen, the former of which was the last statewide elected Republican (alongside Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli) in Virginia prior to 2022. He was regarded by some as the establishment favorite heading into the convention.[90] Nonetheless, he finished fourth on the first voting round behind Glenn Youngkin, Pete Snyder, and Amanda Chase. Youngkin was nominated on the sixth round of voting.

Candidates

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Nominated at convention

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Eliminated at convention

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Did not qualify

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Amanda Chase

Executive branch officials

Kirk Cox

U.S. senators

Governors

U.S. representatives

State delegates

State senators

Individuals

Pete Snyder

Executive Branch Officials

U.S. representatives

State delegate

State senator

Individuals

Glenn Youngkin

U.S. senator

Governor

State senator

State delegate

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Without convention polling

Primary polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Amanda
Chase 		Kirk
Cox 		Sergio
de la Peña 		Peter
Doran 		Octavia
Johnson 		Pete
Snyder 		Glenn
Youngkin 		Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[121] May 5–6, 2021 605 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 7% 2% 0% 1% 13% 25% – 25%
Public Policy Polling (D)[122][C] April 2021 695 (LV) ± 3.7% 22% 7% 3% 1% 0% 16% 21% – 30%
Christopher Newport University[71] January 31 – February 14, 2021 370 (RV) ± 5.6% 17% 10% – – – – 3% – 55%
YouGov Blue (D)[72] February 6–11, 2021 170 (RV) ± 8.6% 24% 7% 1% – – 13% 5% 0% 54%

Convention polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Amanda
Chase 		Kirk
Cox 		Pete
Snyder 		Glenn
Youngkin 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[123][D] April 29 – May 3, 2021 3,896 (LV) ± 1.6% 10% 10% 26% 38% 13% 3%
 
Final results by county and independent city:
  Youngkin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Tie
  •   50%
  Snyder
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   90–100%

Results

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Round-by-round result visualization of the Ranked Choice Voting election
Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee[124]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Glenn Youngkin 4131.80 32.9% 4140.55 33.0% 4148.91 33.0% 4331.93 34.5% 5311.43 42.3% 6869.22 54.7%
Pete Snyder 3241.61 25.8% 3243.84 25.8% 3249.71 25.9% 3502.91 27.9% 4078.25 32.5% 5684.78 45.3%
Amanda Chase 2605.89 20.8% 2611.54 20.8% 2619.83 20.9% 2859.39 22.8% 3164.32 25.2% Eliminated
Kirk Cox 1693.58 13.5% 1698.13 13.5% 1705.90 13.6% 1859.77 14.8% Eliminated
Sergio de la Peña 805.35 6.4% 812.44 6.5% 829.65 6.6% Eliminated
Peter Doran 42.28 0.3% 47.50 0.4% Eliminated
Octavia Johnson 33.48 0.3% Eliminated

Other parties and independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Did not qualify

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Declined

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General election

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On August 26, the Republican Party of Virginia filed a lawsuit to disqualify McAuliffe from appearing on the ballot in November. The suit alleges that McAuliffe did not sign his declaration of candidacy, which is needed to qualify in the primary and general election.[135] It was found that the declaration of candidacy was missing his signature, although it includes two witnesses' signatures. The suit also alleges the witnesses violated state law by witnessing a signing that didn't occur.[136]

Debates

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Canceled debates

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On July 12, Glenn Youngkin announced he would not take part in the July 24 debate hosted by the Virginia Bar Association because of a donation made by one of the moderators, Judy Woodruff.[137][138] Woodruff had made a $250 donation to the Clinton Foundation relief fund after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The foundation had been run by Hillary and Bill Clinton, who are close allies to Terry McAuliffe.[137] On July 28, after discovering that Youngkin would participate in an 'election integrity' rally at Liberty University, McAuliffe declined a debate at the same university.[139] On August 2, Youngkin declined participation in The People's Debate.[140] The two candidates pledged to two debates; one on September 16 and one on September 28.[141]

First debate

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Youngkin and McAuliffe met at Appalachian School of Law in Grundy, Virginia on September 16, 2021, one day before early voting began.[142] The debate was hosted by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page.[143]

The debate started with discussion over a recent COVID-19 mandate President Joe Biden signed requiring federal workers, employees of large companies, and contractors to be vaccinated.[144][145] Youngkin doubted if Biden had the power to authorize the mandate, and supported personal choice for receiving the vaccine. McAuliffe supported the mandate and accused Youngkin of spreading "anti-vax" rhetoric.[145] Youngkin denied the claim. McAuliffe also supported requiring vaccines for students over the age of 12.[146] McAuliffe has also repeatedly made false statements about COVID-19, often inflating the number of cases.[147]

The discussion moved to climate change, where Youngkin stated he would use all sources of energy to address climate change without "putting [the] entire energy grid at risk for political purposes." McAuliffe called for clean energy in the state by 2035 and stressed the idea for the state to be a production hub.[141]

The discussion then moved to abortion, specifically the recent Texas Heartbeat Act signed by Texas governor Greg Abbott (who endorsed Youngkin).[148] When asked whether or not Youngkin would sign a similar bill, Youngkin stated that he would not sign the bill, and that he was anti-abortion and supports exclusions in cases such as rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is endangered. He also stated he supports a "pain-threshold" bill that would ban most abortions at the point when a fetus can feel pain, which proponents of this type of law define as 20 weeks.[141] In addition, Youngkin stated McAuliffe was "the most extreme pro-abortion candidate in America today".[148] In response to Youngkin, McAuliffe stated he was a "brick wall" on women's rights and would protect a woman's decision over abortion and supports reducing the number of doctors needed to certify a third-trimester abortion from three to one.[148]

The next discussion topic was over election integrity. After supporting an "Election Integrity Taskforce", Youngkin stated he does not believe there has been "significant fraud", and stated the issue of fraud as "a democracy issue". Youngkin stressed that he believes that "Joe Biden's our president" and criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan. McAuliffe took note of Donald Trump's endorsement of Youngkin, calling him a "Trump wannabe".[145] Both candidates stated they would concede the election if the other came out on top.[148]

The final discussion topic was over the economy. McAuliffe attacked Youngkin on his top economic advisor, Stephen Moore, who advised Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Youngkin defended Virginia's right-to-work law.[148]

Second debate

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Youngkin and McAuliffe met at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce on September 28, 2021.[149] The event was hosted by Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press. Less than a week before the debate, one of the panelists, Michael Fauntroy, withdrew from the debate after tweets against the GOP and Evangelicals were found.[150]

On the discussion topic of COVID-19, Youngkin and McAuliffe reiterated their stances on the vaccines. Youngkin stated he believed in mandates for vaccines for diseases measles, mumps and rubella, but not for COVID-19, saying that "the data associated with those vaccines is something that we should absolutely understand the difference between this vaccine."[151] Youngkin said people should get vaccinated against COVID-19.[151]

During the debate, Youngkin noted that Trump was regularly mentioned by McAuliffe, who again called Youngkin a "Trump wannabe."[151][152] When asked, Youngkin stated he would support Trump if he were to become the Republican nominee in 2024.[152]

Approximately 15 minutes into the debate, third party candidate Princess Blanding, who was in the audience, disrupted the debate, screaming that her exclusion from the debate was "unfair" and claiming that McAuliffe would not win the election.[153] After being escorted out by security, she claimed that being excluded from the debate was racist and sexist, and that it constituted "censorship".[154]

Youngkin asserted that McAuliffe had vetoed legislation that would have required schools to inform parents about sexually explicit content in educational materials.[155][156] McAuliffe defended his veto, saying: "'I'm not going to let parents come into schools and actually take books out and make their own decision... I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach'".[157][158][156] McAuliffe received criticism for these remarks,[159][160] and Youngkin used his comments to create an attack ad.[161][162] Following the election, Newsweek described McAuliffe's remarks as "a major factor in the race".[163]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[164] Tossup October 5, 2021
Inside Elections[165] Tossup November 1, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[166] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2021

Endorsements

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Terry McAuliffe (D)

Federal officials

Governors

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Glenn Youngkin (R)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

Governors

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Terry
McAuliffe (D) 		Glenn
Youngkin (R) 		Other/Undecided
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[252] October 20–31, 2021 November 1, 2021 46.8% 48.5% 4.8% Youngkin +1.7%
FiveThirtyEight[253] August 1 – November 1, 2021 November 1, 2021 47.0% 47.9% 5.1% Youngkin +1.0%
Average 46.9% 48.2% 5.0% Youngkin +1.4%

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Terry
McAuliffe (D) 		Glenn
Youngkin (R) 		Princess
Blanding (Lib.) 		Other Undecided
Research Co.[254] October 31 – November 1, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48% 2% – 3%
Targoz Market Research[255] October 26 – November 1, 2021 747 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 47% – – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[256] October 29–31, 2021 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% – 2% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[257] October 27–30, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% – 6%
Echelon Insights[258] October 27–29, 2021 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2% – 4%
Roanoke College[259] October 14–28, 2021 571 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 47% 1% 0% 4%
Fox News[260] October 24–27, 2021 1,212 (RV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% – 2% 3%
1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 53% – 1% 1%
Washington Post/Schar School[261] October 20–26, 2021 1,107 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 44% 3% 2%[c] 3%
49% 45% – 3%[d] 4%
918 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 1% 0%[e] 2%
49% 48% – 0%[f] 2%
Christopher Newport University[262] October 17–25, 2021 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 1% – 1%
Suffolk University[263] October 21–24, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 2% – 7%
Emerson College[264] October 22–23, 2021 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 48% 1% – 3%
efficient (R)[265][E] October 20–21, 2021 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 5% – 5%
Cygnal (R)[266] October 19–21, 2021 816 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 48% 1% – 3%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[267][F] October 18–21, 2021 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 43% – 1% 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University[268] October 9–21, 2021 722 (LV) ± 6.4% 41% 38% – 10% 11%
Monmouth University[269] October 16–19, 2021 1,005 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% – 2% 7%
1,005 (LV)[g] 45% 48% – – –
1,005 (LV)[h] 48% 45% – – –
Data for Progress (D)[270] October 4–15, 2021 1,589 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 45% – 2% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[271] October 11–13, 2021 1,095 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% – 1% 3%
Fox News[272] October 10–13, 2021 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 41% – 2% 5%
726 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% – 1% 2%
Schoen Cooperman Research (D)[273] October 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% – 0% 10%
YouGov/CBS News[274] October 4–11, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% – 2% 0%
Christopher Newport University[275] September 27 – October 6, 2021 802 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 45% 1% – 5%
Emerson College[276] October 1–3, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 48% – 1% 2%
Fox News[277] September 26–29, 2021 901 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 1% 7%
Roanoke College[278] September 12–26, 2021 603 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 41% 1% 1% 9%
Monmouth University[279] September 22–26, 2021 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% – 2% 8%
801 (LV)[g] 48% 45% – – –
801 (LV)[h] 50% 43% – – –
Global Strategy Group (D)[280] September 16–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% – – 7%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[281][F] September 17–19, 2021 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% – 1% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[282][G] September 17–18, 2021 875 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 42% – – 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University[283] September 7–15, 2021 731 (LV) ± 6.9% 43% 34% – 10% 13%
Emerson College[284] September 13–14, 2021 778 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 45% – 2% 5%
University of Mary Washington[285] September 7–13, 2021 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 43% 38% 2% 6%[i] 11%
885 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 41% 2% – –
528 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 48% 2% 2%[j] 6%
Washington Post/Schar School[286] September 7–13, 2021 907 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% – 3% 4%
728 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 47% – 1% 2%
WPA Intelligence (R)[287][H] August 30 – September 2, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 3% – 4%
48% 48% – – 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[288] August 26–29, 2021 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 46% – 2% 5%
Monmouth University[289] August 24–29, 2021 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 42% – 2% 9%
802 (LV)[g] 47% 45% – – –
802 (LV)[h] 49% 42% – – –
Christopher Newport University[290] August 15–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 41% 3% – 6%
Change Research (D)[291] August 17–21, 2021 1,653 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 43% 3% – 5%
Change Research (D)[292][I] August 14–18, 2021 1,334 (LV) ± 2.7% 47% 44% – – 9%
Roanoke College[293] August 3–17, 2021 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 38% 2% 1% 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University[294] August 4–15, 2021 770 (RV) ± 5.4% 40% 37% – 15% 9%
~747 (LV) ± 5.5% 40% 37% – 14% 9%
efficient (R)[295] August 8–9, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 45% – – 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[287][H] August 3–5, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 43% 3% – 4%
51% 45% – – 4%
efficient (R)[296][J] July 25–27, 2021 762 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 40% 2% – 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[297] July 8–10, 2021 1,104 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% – 4% 4%
Spry Strategies (R)[298][K] July 6–9, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% – 2% 10%
JMC Analytics and Polling (R)[299] June 9–12, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 42% – – 12%
WPA Intelligence (R)[300][H] June 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% – – 5%

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports
Candidate Amount spent Votes Cost per vote
Glenn Youngkin $64,487,829 1,663,158 $38.77
Terry McAuliffe $68,777,633 1,599,470 $43.00
Princess Blanding $32,595 23,107 $1.41
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[301]

Results

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Election turnout by county:
  30–40%
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election[302]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Glenn Youngkin 1,663,158 50.58% +5.61%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,599,470 48.64% −5.26%
Liberation Princess Blanding 23,125 0.70% +0.70%
Write-in 2,592 0.08% +0.03%
Total votes 3,288,327 100% N/A
Turnout 3,296,705 55.39%
Registered electors 5,951,368
Republican gain from Democratic

By county and city

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Independent cities have been italicized.

County or
city 		Youngkin McAuliffe Blanding Others Turnout Total
Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent
Accomack 7,878 61.08% 4,948 38.37% 67 0.52% 4 0.03% 52.27% 12,897
Albemarle 19,141 37.21% 31,919 62.05% 347 0.67% 36 0.07% 62.94% 51,443
Alexandria 14,013 24.02% 43,866 75.20% 385 0.66% 66 0.11% 54.35% 58,330
Alleghany 4,530 74.52% 1,518 24.97% 26 0.43% 5 0.08% 55.18% 6,079
Amelia 4,720 74.19% 1,617 25.42% 23 0.36% 2 0.03% 64.17% 6,362
Amherst 9,731 71.00% 3,897 28.43% 72 0.53% 6 0.04% 61.34% 13,706
Appomattox 5,971 80.26% 1,438 19.33% 26 0.35% 5 0.07% 62.61% 7,440
Arlington 21,548 22.63% 73,013 76.67% 554 0.58% 116 0.12% 56.13% 95,231
Augusta 26,196 77.93% 7,231 21.51% 170 0.51% 16 0.05% 62.72% 33,613
Bath 1,539 79.04% 396 20.34% 11 0.56% 1 0.05% 59.25% 1,947
Bedford 30,912 79.10% 8,001 20.47% 145 0.37% 21 0.05% 63.60% 39,079
Bland 2,274 85.78% 364 13.73% 12 0.45% 1 0.04% 58.91% 2,651
Botetourt 13,066 76.30% 3,990 23.30% 61 0.36% 8 0.05% 66.32% 17,125
Bristol 3,773 73.30% 1,342 26.07% 30 0.58% 2 0.04% 43.60% 5,147
Brunswick 2,880 47.34% 3,165 52.02% 34 0.56% 5 0.08% 55.60% 6,084
Buchanan 5,083 84.72% 903 15.05% 8 0.13% 6 0.10% 40.17% 6,000
Buckingham 3,894 63.29% 2,222 36.11% 35 0.57% 2 0.03% 56.78% 6,153
Buena Vista 1,459 74.33% 481 24.50% 22 1.12% 1 0.05% 45.53% 1,963
Campbell 18,213 78.39% 4,930 21.22% 77 0.33% 15 0.06% 57.88% 23,235
Caroline 6,917 57.35% 5,045 41.83% 91 0.75% 8 0.07% 54.33% 12,061
Carroll 9,868 83.45% 1,910 16.15% 43 0.36% 4 0.03% 57.19% 11,825
Charles City 1,550 45.76% 1,822 53.79% 15 0.44% 0 0.00% 59.93% 3,387
Charlotte 3,354 70.26% 1,396 29.24% 21 0.44% 3 0.06% 57.26% 4,774
Charlottesville 2,774 15.99% 14,378 82.88% 173 1.00% 22 0.13% 51.71% 17,347
Chesapeake 48,079 52.43% 42,907 46.79% 654 0.71% 59 0.06% 53.53% 91,699
Chesterfield 80,889 51.76% 74,085 47.41% 1,194 0.76% 109 0.07% 59.81% 156,277
Clarke 4,642 62.54% 2,739 36.90% 34 0.46% 7 0.09% 63.36% 7,422
Colonial Heights 4,913 73.27% 1,729 25.79% 53 0.79% 10 0.15% 52.84% 6,705
Covington 1,198 66.82% 579 32.29% 16 0.89% 0 0.00% 47.36% 1,793
Craig 2,079 83.16% 400 16.00% 17 0.68% 4 0.16% 63.12% 2,500
Culpeper 13,436 66.47% 6,661 32.95% 107 0.53% 10 0.05% 56.89% 20,214
Cumberland 2,678 63.38% 1,515 35.86% 27 0.64% 5 0.12% 58.50% 4,225
Danville 5,907 45.92% 6,872 53.42% 80 0.62% 5 0.04% 45.27% 12,864
Dickenson 3,867 80.31% 934 19.40% 11 0.23% 3 0.06% 47.46% 4,815
Dinwiddie 7,335 63.33% 4,181 36.10% 59 0.51% 7 0.06% 56.92% 11,582
Emporia 723 39.47% 1,087 59.33% 20 1.09% 2 0.11% 46.75% 1832
Essex 2,684 57.00% 1,980 42.05% 39 0.83% 6 0.13% 58.61% 4,709
Fairfax County 152,110 34.47% 286,316 64.89% 2,348 0.53% 492 0.11% 56.98% 441,266
Fairfax 3,606 35.56% 6,465 63.74% 59 0.58% 12 0.12% 59.03% 10,142
Falls Church 1,590 22.63% 5,388 76.69% 42 0.60% 6 0.09% 64.83% 7,026
Fauquier 22,252 65.46% 11,570 34.04% 156 0.46% 14 0.04% 62.13% 33,992
Floyd 5,230 69.75% 2,203 29.38% 59 0.79% 6 0.08% 64.55% 7,498
Fluvanna 7,068 56.75% 5,312 42.65% 65 0.52% 9 0.07% 61.40% 12,454
Franklin County 17,842 74.82% 5,894 24.71% 102 0.43% 10 0.04% 61.06% 23,848
Franklin 1,270 42.83% 1,680 56.66% 14 0.47% 1 0.03% 51.41% 2,965
Frederick 25,062 68.90% 11,164 30.69% 130 0.36% 19 0.05% 55.88% 36,375
Fredericksburg 3,503 38.77% 5,402 59.79% 113 1.25% 17 0.19% 48.96% 9,035
Galax 1,424 73.94% 492 25.55% 9 0.47% 1 0.05% 48.98% 1,926
Giles 5,788 78.33% 1,535 20.77% 61 0.83% 5 0.07% 61.83% 7,389
Gloucester 12,585 72.37% 4,712 27.09% 88 0.51% 6 0.03% 59.40% 17,391
Goochland 9,585 65.87% 4,910 33.74% 52 0.36% 5 0.03% 71.07% 14,552
Grayson 5,144 82.48% 1,062 17.03% 27 0.43% 4 0.06% 58.20% 6,237
Greene 5,961 67.42% 2,806 31.73% 68 0.77% 7 0.08% 61.43% 8,842
Greensville 1,709 46.98% 1,915 52.64% 12 0.33% 2 0.05% 57.08% 3,638
Halifax 8,641 63.90% 4,804 35.53% 75 0.55% 2 0.01% 55.08% 13,522
Hampton 14,651 32.48% 29,971 66.45% 449 1.00% 33 0.07% 45.75% 45,104
Hanover 39,954 67.65% 18,753 31.75% 322 0.55% 35 0.06% 68.30% 59,064
Harrisonburg 4,382 38.65% 6,812 60.09% 131 1.16% 12 0.11% 43.63% 11,337
Henrico 55,796 40.24% 81,409 58.71% 1,342 0.97% 120 0.09% 58.70% 138,667
Henry 12,902 69.61% 5,547 29.93% 74 0.40% 13 0.07% 51.52% 18,536
Highland 969 74.37% 325 24.94% 8 0.61% 1 0.08% 69.31% 1303
Hopewell 3,095 49.31% 3,085 49.16% 87 1.39% 9 0.14% 40.95% 6,276
Isle of Wight 12,000 64.26% 6,565 35.16% 91 0.49% 17 0.09% 61.95% 18,673
James City 21,048 52.50% 18,836 46.98% 186 0.46% 21 0.05% 64.70% 40,091
King and Queen 2,112 64.77% 1,130 34.65% 18 0.55% 1 0.03% 61.53% 3,261
King George 7,286 68.09% 3,317 31.00% 91 0.85% 7 0.07% 56.68% 10,701
King William 6,286 73.33% 2,247 26.21% 33 0.38% 6 0.07% 63.49% 8,572
Lancaster 3,448 58.71% 2,406 40.97% 16 0.27% 3 0.05% 64.96% 5,873
Lee 6,372 87.60% 882 12.13% 18 0.25% 2 0.03% 47.78% 7,274
Lexington 775 37.30% 1,289 62.03% 10 0.48% 4 0.19% 50.28% 2078
Loudoun 71,467 44.17% 89,390 55.25% 803 0.50% 134 0.08% 57.31% 161,794
Louisa 11,649 66.04% 5,896 33.43% 87 0.49% 7 0.04% 62.60% 17,639
Lunenburg 3,019 65.67% 1,567 34.09% 11 0.24% 0 0.00% 57.41% 4,597
Lynchburg 13,668 54.89% 11,000 44.17% 198 0.80% 35 0.14% 45.53% 24,901
Madison 4,721 70.17% 1,973 29.33% 29 0.43% 5 0.07% 66.37% 6,728
Manassas 5,050 44.67% 6,155 54.44% 87 0.77% 14 0.12% 49.09% 11,306
Manassas Park 1,379 38.34% 2,158 59.99% 46 1.28% 14 0.39% 41.45% 3,597
Martinsville 1,676 42.48% 2,224 56.38% 40 1.01% 5 0.13% 44.61% 3,945
Mathews 3,493 71.56% 1,363 27.92% 18 0.37% 7 0.14% 67.70% 4,881
Mecklenburg 7,922 65.81% 4,075 33.85% 37 0.31% 3 0.02% 53.54% 12,037
Middlesex 3,703 65.97% 1,860 33.14% 47 0.84% 3 0.05% 65.24% 5,613
Montgomery 17,041 51.96% 15,355 46.82% 377 1.15% 22 0.07% 53.82% 32,795
Nelson 4,259 55.46% 3,346 43.57% 64 0.83% 11 0.14% 65.23% 7,680
New Kent 8,569 71.02% 3,439 28.50% 52 0.43% 6 0.05% 66.93% 12,066
Newport News 21,241 39.14% 32,399 59.69% 588 1.08% 48 0.09% 44.66% 54,276
Norfolk 18,888 31.45% 40,324 67.14% 789 1.31% 60 0.10% 43.96% 60,061
Northampton 2,650 50.34% 2,584 49.09% 27 0.51% 3 0.06% 55.11% 5,264
Northumberland 4,167 63.95% 2,312 35.48% 37 0.57% 0 0.00% 64.79% 6,516
Norton 866 71.99% 320 26.60% 13 1.08% 4 0.33% 47.70% 1203
Nottoway 3,497 64.57% 1,892 34.93% 24 0.44% 3 0.06% 56.89% 5,416
Orange 10,670 66.23% 5,351 33.22% 80 0.50% 9 0.06% 59.09% 16,110
Page 7,594 78.92% 1,995 20.73% 28 0.29% 5 0.05% 57.41% 9,622
Patrick 5,946 82.14% 1,255 17.34% 32 0.44% 6 0.08% 57.37% 7,239
Petersburg 1,207 13.50% 7,591 84.87% 141 1.58% 5 0.06% 38.61% 8,944
Pittsylvania 19,543 75.31% 6,319 24.35% 76 0.29% 12 0.05% 58.02% 25,950
Poquoson 4,897 77.75% 1,364 21.66% 32 0.51% 5 0.08% 66.33% 6,298
Portsmouth 9,946 33.34% 19,513 65.41% 355 1.19% 19 0.06% 44.73% 29,833
Powhatan 12,582 76.86% 3,721 22.73% 58 0.35% 10 0.06% 69.69% 16,371
Prince Edward 3,876 54.40% 3,210 45.05% 36 0.51% 3 0.04% 53.63% 7,125
Prince George 8,548 64.65% 4,577 34.62% 84 0.64% 13 0.10% 54.60% 13,222
Prince William 64,658 42.20% 87,352 57.01% 1,111 0.73% 97 0.06% 50.22% 153,218
Pulaski 9,631 74.06% 3,277 25.20% 88 0.68% 9 0.07% 55.72% 13,005
Radford 2,266 54.03% 1,879 44.80% 44 1.05% 5 0.12% 44.70% 4,194
Rappahannock 2,507 59.45% 1,686 39.98% 19 0.45% 5 0.12% 68.59% 4,217
Richmond County 2,225 69.90% 936 29.41% 20 0.63% 2 0.06% 56.80% 3,183
Richmond 15,713 19.61% 61,929 77.27% 2,409 3.01% 91 0.11% 51.03% 80,142
Roanoke County 28,157 65.70% 14,445 33.70% 220 0.51% 37 0.09% 59.61% 42,859
Roanoke 12,024 41.25% 16,817 57.70% 272 0.93% 34 0.12% 45.28% 29,147
Rockbridge 6,906 68.89% 3,071 30.64% 40 0.40% 7 0.07% 63.52% 10,024
Rockingham 26,765 75.31% 8,569 24.11% 182 0.51% 23 0.06% 64.32% 35,539
Russell 8,229 84.83% 1,452 14.97% 17 0.18% 3 0.03% 51.16% 9,701
Salem 6,144 64.29% 3,344 34.99% 60 0.63% 8 0.08% 54.34% 9,556
Scott 7,065 86.89% 1,034 12.72% 28 0.34% 4 0.05% 51.83% 8,131
Shenandoah 13,693 74.64% 4,535 24.72% 107 0.58% 11 0.06% 58.26% 18,346
Smyth 8,477 82.55% 1,751 17.05% 35 0.34% 6 0.06% 51.88% 10,269
Southampton 5,084 64.90% 2,717 34.68% 29 0.37% 4 0.05% 60.69% 7,834
Spotsylvania 32,478 59.84% 21,426 39.47% 346 0.64% 29 0.05% 53.76% 54,279
Stafford 31,680 55.00% 25,463 44.20% 425 0.74% 35 0.06% 54.13% 57,603
Staunton 4,640 47.49% 5,004 51.21% 119 1.22% 8 0.08% 55.60% 9,771
Suffolk 17,351 47.26% 19,079 51.96% 252 0.69% 34 0.09% 53.79% 36,716
Surry 1,768 50.00% 1,756 49.66% 9 0.25% 3 0.08% 63.39% 3,536
Sussex 1,973 49.02% 2,028 50.39% 24 0.60% 0 0.00% 57.08% 4,025
Tazewell 12,045 86.59% 1,821 13.09% 40 0.29% 4 0.03% 50.34% 13,910
Virginia Beach 86,973 53.62% 73,965 45.60% 1,160 0.72% 99 0.06% 50.63% 162,197
Warren 11,294 71.85% 4,328 27.53% 89 0.57% 8 0.05% 53.64% 15,719
Washington 17,395 79.08% 4,505 20.48% 78 0.35% 18 0.08% 57.11% 21,996
Waynesboro 4,473 56.94% 3,275 41.69% 99 1.26% 9 0.11% 53.02% 7,856
Westmoreland 4,614 60.55% 2,971 38.99% 30 0.39% 5 0.07% 55.91% 7,620
Williamsburg 1,703 34.54% 3,185 64.59% 40 0.81% 3 0.06% 49.68% 4,931
Winchester 4,137 48.69% 4,294 50.54% 60 0.71% 5 0.06% 48.16% 8,496
Wise 9,691 83.90% 1,796 15.55% 53 0.46% 11 0.10% 47.86% 11,551
Wythe 9,458 81.78% 2,043 17.67% 59 0.51% 5 0.04% 56.43% 11,565
York 17,485 58.59% 12,190 40.85% 150 0.50% 16 0.05% 60.79% 29,841
 
 

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By region and precinct

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Results by region[k]
 
Results in the Shenandoah Valley
 
Results in Northern Virginia
 
Results in Central Virginia
 
Results in Southwest Virginia
 
Results in Southside
 
Results in Hampton Roads

By congressional district

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Youngkin won 6 of 11 congressional districts, including two that were held by Democratic U.S. representatives at the time. He also flipped Virginia's 2nd congressional district which was previously won by Ralph Northam in 2017.[304][305]

District Youngkin McAuliffe Blanding Representative
1st 58.6% 40.7% 0.7% Rob Wittman
2nd 53.7% 45.5% 0.8% Elaine Luria
3rd 37.0% 61.9% 1.1% Bobby Scott
4th 42.6% 55.9% 1.5% Donald McEachin
5th 59.7% 39.7% 0.6% Bob Good
6th 66.0% 33.3% 0.7% Ben Cline
7th 55.0% 44.3% 0.7% Abigail Spanberger
8th 26.8% 72.5% 0.8% Don Beyer
9th 74.6% 24.8% 0.8% Morgan Griffith
10th 47.4% 52.0% 0.6% Jennifer Wexton
11th 32.6% 66.6% 0.8% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

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Youngkin won the election, 50.6%–48.6%.[2][306] The margin of victory was the narrowest margin in a Virginia gubernatorial election since 1989. McAuliffe conceded the day after the election and congratulated Youngkin, saying he was "proud" to campaign "for the values we so deeply believe in".[307][308] Republicans also flipped the lieutenant governor and attorney general races that were held concurrently,[309] as well as took control of the Virginia House of Delegates. This election, as well as the concurrent elections for lieutenant governor and attorney general, marked the first time since the 1969 gubernatorial election that a Republican won Virginia without Loudoun County, and the first time since the 1960 presidential election that a Republican won statewide without Prince William County. This is the first time Surry County backed the Republican candidate since John Warner's largely uncontested re-election in 2002 and the first time Prince Edward County or Northampton County voted Republican since 2009. This is also the first time any Virginia statewide candidate has won without at least one of the three Northern Virginia counties of Loudoun, Prince William, Fairfax, or the independent cities therein. Over 3.28 million votes were cast, exceeding the 2017 gubernatorial election total by roughly 625,000 and exceeding all other previous Virginia gubernatorial elections by over a million.

Youngkin's victory is attributed to the "Youngkin coalition" of largely Trump supporters and suburbanites which contributed to a Republican victory in the state.[310][311][312] The appeal to suburban voters, who have shifted away from the Republican Party as Donald Trump increasingly influenced it, was attributed to Youngkin's distancing from Trump and hesitancy to openly embrace him.[311] Youngkin's performance in the suburbs near Washington, D.C. were stronger than that of Trump's margins in the 2020 United States presidential election.[313] During the final days preceding the general election held on November 2, Youngkin campaigned in the Washington metropolitan area suburbs of Northern Virginia.[314] Previous similar attempts to combine a coalition of Trump supporters and suburban voters, including Ed Gillespie's run for governor in 2017, were met with failure.[315] Youngkin's victory was consistent with gubernatorial candidates of the opposing party as the incumbent president usually winning in Virginia, with the notable exception of McAuliffe's victory in 2013.

Voter demographics

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Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by voters in person as well as by phone.[316]

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election (CNN)[316]
Demographic subgroup Youngkin McAuliffe % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 6 93 23
Moderates 39 60 41
Conservatives 93 7 36
Party
Democrats 4 96 36
Republicans 97 3 34
Independents 54 45 30
Gender
Men 56 44 48
Women 46 53 52
Race/ethnicity
White 62 38 73
Black 13 86 16
Latino 32 66 5
Asian 33 67 3
Gender by race
White men 66 34 36
White women 57 43 37
Black men 13 86 7
Black women 14 86 9
Latino men (of any race) N/A N/A 2
Latino women (of any race) 23 75 3
Other racial/ethnic groups 38 62 5
Age
18–24 years old 47 52 5
25–29 years old 43 54 5
30–39 years old 47 53 13
40–49 years old 51 48 18
50–64 years old 52 48 34
65 and older 55 45 26
2020 presidential vote
Biden 5 95 48
Trump 98 2 44
Education
Never attended college 61 38 15
Some college education 58 41 24
Associate degree 58 42 12
Bachelor's degree 44 55 25
Advanced degree 40 60 24
Education by race
White college graduates 47 52 37
White no college degree 76 24 36
Non-white college graduates 25 75 11
Non-white no college degree 20 79 15
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 39 61 18
White women without college degrees 74 25 19
White men with college degrees 55 44 19
White men without college degrees 78 22 17
Non-white 22 77 27
Issue regarded as most important
Taxes 68 32 15
Economy 55 44 33
Education 53 47 24
Coronavirus 16 84 15
Abortion 58 41 8
Abortion should be
Legal 26 73 58
Illegal 87 13 37
Region
DC Suburbs 36 64 29
Central Virginia 59 40 18
Hampton Roads 46 54 15
Richmond/Southside 50 50 18
Mountain 70 30 20
Area type
Urban 32 67 21
Suburban 53 46 60
Rural 63 36 19

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Would not vote and None of these with 1%
  4. ^ Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
  5. ^ Would not vote and None of these with 0%
  6. ^ Would not vote and Neither with 0%
  7. ^ a b c Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
  8. ^ a b c Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
  9. ^ None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
  10. ^ None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
  11. ^ Regions defined in a Washington Post article.[303]

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign for Lieutenant Governor
  6. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
  8. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project

References

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  1. ^ "Republican Glenn Youngkin is leading in Virginia governor race. Here's the latest". NPR. Archived from the original on January 21, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  2. ^ a b SUMMARY OF VIRGINIA REGISTRATION & TURNOUT STATISTICS (Report). Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved March 22, 2023.
  3. ^ Wilson, Patrick (March 12, 2021). "After months of fighting, Va. Republicans appear to have finalized nomination process". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Archived from the original on March 13, 2021. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  4. ^ Gabriel, Trip (May 11, 2021). "Glenn Youngkin Wins G.O.P. Nomination for Virginia Governor". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on May 11, 2021. Retrieved May 11, 2021.
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  6. ^ "Virginia Primary Election Results". The New York Times. June 8, 2021. Archived from the original on June 8, 2021. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
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  8. ^ Ariel Edwards-Levy (November 2, 2021). "Independent voters favor Youngkin as he clinches victory in Virginia, CNN exit poll shows". CNN. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  9. ^ Prokop, Andrew (November 3, 2021). "What Glenn Youngkin's Virginia win means for Democrats". Vox. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
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  11. ^ "In Virginia, Republicans see education, curriculum fears as a path to victory". NBC News. October 17, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
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Official campaign websites

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