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2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout72.5% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,547,104 1,380,126
Percentage 51.41% 45.86%
Baldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Thompson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     Tie      No data
U.S. senator before election

Herb Kohl
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

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Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.[2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.[3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

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Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin 		Jon
Erpenbach 		Russ
Feingold 		Kathleen
Falk 		Steve
Kagen 		Ron
Kind 		Barbara
Lawton 		Gwen
Moore 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[14] May 19–22, 2011 783 ±3.5% 12% 5% 70% 1% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3%
30% 13% — 4% 17% 16% 3% 6% 12%
Magellan Strategies[15] July 12–13, 2011 627 ±3.9% 46% — — — 21% — — — 33%
41% — — — — 19% — — 40%
Public Policy Polling[16] August 12–14, 2011 387 ±5% 48% — — — 19% — — — 33%
37% — — — 15% 21% — — 27%

Results

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Democratic primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 185,265 99.77
Democratic Write ins 424 0.23
Total votes 185,689 100

Republican primary

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Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[18] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[19] He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.[20]

Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Fitzgerald 		Eric
Hovde 		Mark
Neumann 		Tommy
Thompson 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[32] August 8–9, 2012 557 ± 4.2% 15% 27% 24% 25% 9%
Marquette University[33] August 2–5, 2012 519 ± 4.4% 13% 20% 18% 28% 7%
We Ask America[34] July 31, 2012 1,237 ± 2.8% 12% 23% 17% 23% 25%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 13% 28% 25% 25% 9%
— 33% 27% 30% 10%
Marquette University[36] July 5–8, 2012 432 ± 4.8% 6% 23% 10% 35% 25%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 9% 31% 15% 29% 16%
OnMessage Inc.[38]+ June 26–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 7% 29% 16% 34% 14%
Marquette University[39] June 13–16, 2012 344 ± 5.4% 10% 14% 16% 34% 25%
Public Policy Polling[40] March 31–April 1, 2012 609 ± 4.0% 18% — 25% 38% 19%
Public Policy Polling[41] February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 22% — 22% 39% 17%
32% — 42% — 26%
37% — — 46% 17%
— — 36% 46% 18%
Public Policy Polling[42] October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 21% — 29% 35% 11%
— — 39% 43% 17%
28% — 44% — 28%
35% — — 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling[16] August 12–14, 2011 362 ± 5.2% — — 39% 47% 13%
Magellan Strategies[43] July 12–13, 2011 638 ± 3.9% 15% — 26% 41% 18%
— — 36% 44% 20%
  • + Commissioned by Eric Hovde
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tommy
Thompson 		Someone more
conservative 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 29% 58% 13%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 34% 50% 17%
Public Policy Polling[41] February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 37% 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling[42] October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 35% 51% 14%

Endorsements

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Jeff Fitzgerald
Eric Hovde
Mark Neumann
Tommy Thompson

Politicians

Celebrities and political commentators[65]

Cabinet officials[65]

  • Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
  • Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
  • Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators[65]

Political organization officials[65]

  • David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union[69]
  • Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
  • Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
  • Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials[65]

  • Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
  • Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations[65]

  • Wisconsin Right to Life
  • Dairy Business Association
  • Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
  • Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
  • Milwaukee Police Association
  • Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
  • Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
  • Wisconsin Grocers Association
  • Wisconsin Restaurant Association
  • Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
  • Wisconsin Health Care Association
  • Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
  • GOProud[70]

Results

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Results by county
  Thompson
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Hovde
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Neumann
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tommy Thompson 197,928 34.0
Republican Eric Hovde 179,557 30.8
Republican Mark Neumann 132,786 22.8
Republican Jeff Fitzgerald 71,871 12.3
Republican Write ins 244 0.04
Total votes 582,630 100

General election

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Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

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Debates

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Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Tammy Baldwin (D) $14,643,869 $15,204,940 $143,852 $0
Tommy Thompson (R) $9,585,823 $9,582,888 $2,934 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Top contributors

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Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
EMILY's List $431,843 Michael Best & Friedrich LLP $36,825
MoveOn.org $171,467 ABC Supply $28,500
University of Wisconsin $117,600 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $28,250
J Street PAC $113,758 Direct Supply $27,500
League of Conservation Voters $95,308 Wisconsin Energy Corporation $25,750
Democracy Engine $81,330 American Foods Group $25,000
Council for a Livable World $54,130 Gilead Sciences $23,000
Voices for Progress $25,749 Centene Corporation $20,750
Marshfield Clinic $21,800 BGR Group $20,500
Microsoft Corporation $18,564 C. R. Bard, Inc. $20,000
Source: OpenSecrets[74]

Top industries

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Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
Women's Issues $915,482 Retired $858,276
Retired $791,756 Leadership PACs $244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms $597,674 Financial Institutions $243,636
Democratic/Liberal $555,792 Lawyers/Law Firms $228,379
Leadership PACs $309,430 Real Estate $227,687
Universities $298,298 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $204,302
Human Rights Organisations $215,539 Insurance Industry $202,654
Health Professionals $202,654 Manufacturing & Distributing $169,104
Pro-Israel $172,380 Health Professionals $150,149
Business Services $163,238 Lobbyists $138,700
Source: OpenSecrets[75]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[78] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[79] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 45% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 42% 50% — 8%
Public Policy Polling[82] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 46% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports[83] October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 42% 49% 4% 6%
Marquette University[84] February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 42% 48% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling[41] February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 46% 45% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports[85] February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 36% 50% 4% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[86] March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 48% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling[87] April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 45% 47% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports[88] May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 38% 50% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling[89] May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 42% 47% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports[90] June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 36% 52% 6% 6%
Marquette University[39] June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 41% 49% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 45% 45% — 11%
Marquette University[36] July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 41% 45% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports[91] July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 41% 5% 6%
Marquette University[92] August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 43% 48% — 5%
Quinnipiac[93] July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 47% 47% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[94] August 15, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 54% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling[95] August 16–19, 2012 1,308 ±2.7% 44% 49% — 7%
Marquette University[96] August 16–19, 2012 576 ±4.2% 41% 50% — 9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[97] August 15–21, 2012 1,190 ±3.0% 44% 50% 1% 4%
YouGov[98] September 4–11, 2012 772 ±n/a 42% 48% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[99] September 12–13, 2012 959 ±n/a 48% 45% — 6%
Marquette University[100] September 13–16, 2012 705 ±3.8% 50% 41% — 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[101] September 11–17, 2012 1,485 ±2.5% 47% 47% — 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[102] September 16–18, 2012 968 ±3.2% 48% 46% — 5%
Public Policy Polling[103] September 18–19, 2012 842 ±3.4% 49% 45% — 6%
We Ask America[104] September 20–23, 2012 1,238 ±2.8% 52% 40% — 8%
Marquette University[105] September 27–30, 2012 894 ±3.3% 48% 44% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[106] October 4–6, 2012 979 ±3.1% 49% 46% — 6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[107] October 4–9, 2012 1,327 ±2.7% 48% 46% — 5%
Rasmussen Reports[108] October 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 47% 1% 2%
YouGov[109] October 4–11, 2012 639 ±4.9% 48% 43% — 9%
Marquette University[110] October 11–14, 2012 870 ±3.3% 45% 46% — 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[111] October 15–17, 2012 1,013 ±3.1% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Mason-Dixon[112] October 15–17, 2012 625 ±4% 47% 45% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports[113] October 18, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 48% 3% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[114] October 18–20, 2012 502 ±4.5% 45% 42% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[115] October 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 48% 2% 4%
Marquette University[116] October 25–28, 2012 1,243 ±2.8% 47% 43% — 10%
St. Norbert College[117] October 25–29, 2012 402 ±5% 43% 46% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports[115] October 29, 2012 750 ±4.0% 48% 48% 1% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[118] October 31, 2012 1,065 ±3.0% 48% 47% 4% 1%
WeAskAmerica[119] October 31 – November 1, 2012 1,210 ±3% 49% 46% — 5%
YouGov[120] October 31 – November 3, 2012 1,225 ±3.1% 48% 47% — 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[121] November 1–3, 2012 482 ±4.5% 50% 48% 2% —
Public Policy Polling[122] November 2–3, 2012 1,256 ±2.8% 51% 48% — 2%
Hypothetical polling

with Tammy Baldwin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 48% 37% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[82] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 40% — 16%
Rasmussen Reports[83] October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 46% 39% 4% 6%
Marquette University[84] February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 45% 37% 3% 15%
Public Policy Polling[41] February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 47% 39% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports[85] February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 40% 41% 4% 15%
Rasmussen Reports[86] March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 40% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling[87] April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 47% 40% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports[88] May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 45% 41% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[115] June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 43% 5% 8%
Marquette University[39] June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 45% 39% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 46% 42% — 13%
Marquette University[36] July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 43% 37% — 20%
Rasmussen Reports[115] July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 37% 6% 10%
Marquette University[92] August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 45% 40% — 7%
Quinnipiac[93] July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 51% 39% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Eric
Hovde (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[89] May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 41% 45% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports[115] June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 42% 44% 4% 10%
Marquette University[39] June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 45% 36% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 44% 45% — 11%
Marquette University[36] July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 44% 38% — 18%
Rasmussen Reports[115] July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 45% 42% 5% 8%
Marquette University[92] August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 44% 41% — 9%
Quinnipiac[93] July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 47% 43% 1% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 46% 41% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 40% 44% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[82] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 43% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports[83] October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 44% 43% 4% 9%
Marquette University[84] February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 44% 40% 2% 14%
Public Policy Polling[41] February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 47% 41% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports[85] February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 37% 46% 4% 13%
Rasmussen Reports[86] March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 40% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling[87] April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 46% 45% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports[88] May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 42% 44% 4% 9%
Public Policy Polling[89] May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 42% 46% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports[115] June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 45% 5% 7%
Marquette University[39] June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 44% 44% — 12%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 45% 41% — 13%
Marquette University[36] July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 43% 40% — 17%
Rasmussen Reports[115] July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 42% 3% 8%
Marquette University[92] August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 44% 44% — 6%
Quinnipiac[93] July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 48% 45% 1% 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 46% 39% — 15%

with Russ Feingold

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 55% 39% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 51% 44% — 5%
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 53% 41% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[123] February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 50% 40% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Paul
Ryan (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124] December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 50% 43% — 7%
Public Policy Polling[123] February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 49% 42% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124] December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 49% 40% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 52% 42% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 48% 47% — 5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124] December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 52% 41% — 7%
Public Policy Polling[123] February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 51% 39% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 53% 38% — 9%

with Steve Kagen

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 43% 38% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 42% 41% — 17%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 38% 45% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 42% 45% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 41% 49% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 43% 38% — 19%

with Ron Kind

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 45% 37% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 40% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 40% 43% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 44% — 12%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 41% 48% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 38% — 17%

with Herb Kohl

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[123] February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 51% 37% — 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		Paul
Ryan (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124] December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 48% 42% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[123] February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 49% 42% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124] December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 49% 40% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124] December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 51% 38% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[123] February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 52% 37% — 11%

Results

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United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012[125]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 1,547,104 51.41% −15.90%
Republican Tommy Thompson 1,380,126 45.86% +16.38%
Libertarian Joseph Kexel 62,240 2.07% N/A
Independent Nimrod Allen, III 16,455 0.55% N/A
Write-in 3,486 0.11% +0.05%
Total votes 3,009,411 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[126]

District Thompson Baldwin Representative
1st 50.61% 46.56% Paul Ryan
2nd 32.28% 65.82% Mark Pocan
3rd 44.31% 52.77% Ron Kind
4th 25.15% 72.93% Gwen Moore
5th 61.06% 36.68% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 52.93% 44.05% Tom Petri
7th 48.93% 48.06% Sean Duffy
8th 50.21% 46.63% Reid Ribble

Aftermath

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Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."[127]

See also

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References

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Official candidate sites (Archived)

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