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2024 Catalan regional election

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2024 Catalan regional election
← 2021 12 May 2024 Next →
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,754,987 Green arrow up2.3%
Turnout3,183,137 (55.3%)
Green arrow up4.0 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Salvador Illa Carles Puigdemont Pere Aragonès
Party PSC–PSOE Cat–Junts+ ERC
Leader since 30 December 2020 21 March 2024 20 November 2020
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 33 seats, 23.0% 32 seats, 20.1% 33 seats, 21.3%
Seats won 42 35 20
Seat change Green arrow up9 Green arrow up3 Red arrow down13
Popular vote 882,589 681,470 431,128
Percentage 28.0% 21.6% 13.7%
Swing Green arrow up5.0 pp Green arrow up1.5 pp Red arrow down7.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Alejandro Fernández Ignacio Garriga Jéssica Albiach
Party PP Vox Comuns Sumar
Leader since 10 November 2018 10 August 2020 18 September 2018
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 3 seats, 3.8% 11 seats, 7.7% 8 seats, 6.9%[a]
Seats won 15 11 6
Seat change Green arrow up12 Blue arrow right0 Red arrow down2
Popular vote 347,170 251,096 184,297
Percentage 11.0% 8.0% 5.8%
Swing Green arrow up7.2 pp Green arrow up0.3 pp Red arrow down1.1 pp
  Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party
 
Leader Laia Estrada Sílvia Orriols Carlos Carrizosa
Party CUP–DT Aliança.cat Cs
Leader since 25 March 2024 28 October 2020 19 August 2020
Leader's seat Barcelona Girona Barcelona (lost)
Last election 9 seats, 6.7% Did not contest 6 seats, 5.6%
Seats won 4 2 0
Seat change Red arrow down5 Green arrow up2 Red arrow down6
Popular vote 129,059 119,149 22,947
Percentage 4.1% 3.8% 0.7%
Swing Red arrow down2.7 pp New party Red arrow down4.9 pp
Election result by constituency
President before election

Pere Aragonès
ERC

Elected President

Salvador Illa
PSC

The 2024 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 12 May 2024, to elect the 15th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

The coalition government formed by Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) had broken up in October 2022, with president Pere Aragonès having to rely in the support of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) and In Common We Can (ECP) for stability. After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget in Parliament on 13 March 2024, as a result of differences with ECP over the Hard Rock mega resort, Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.

Salvador Illa's PSC secured a commanding victory in both votes and seats in a Catalan regional election for the first time in history, whereas support for Catalan nationalist parties in general—and for ERC and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) in particular—collapsed, bringing their combined totals well below the absolute majority threshold for the first time since 1980. The conservative People's Party (PP) surged from three to 15 seats, benefiting from the wipeout of Citizens (Cs), whereas the far-right, pro-independence Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat) party of Sílvia Orriols was able to secure parliamentary representation thanks to strong support in traditionally pro-independence strongholds. Illa was elected as new president on 8 August 2024 with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and amidst a failed attempt by Puigdemont to thwart his investiture by returning to Barcelona while evading Spanish and Catalan police forces.

The election outcome and Illa's election were widely seen as signaling the end of the Catalan independence process starting in 2012 and seeing at its height a major constitutional crisis in Spain and its subsequent trials.[1][2] The conciliation policies carried out by the Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez, as well as the controversial amnesty law that was agreed for in the 2023 Spanish government formation process, were said to be among the factors that influenced the loss of the pro-independence majority.[3]

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[4] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.[b] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[5] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[6]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[4][7]

Seats Constituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[8]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 February 2025. The election was required to be called no later than 30 January 2025, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 31 March 2025.[4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[4]

After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget on 13 March 2024, president Pere Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.[9] The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 19 March 2024 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).[10]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[11][12][13]

Parliamentary composition in March 2024
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialists' and United to Advance
Parliamentary Group 		PSC 32 33
Els Units 1
Republican Parliamentary Group ERC 33 33
Together for Catalonia's Parliamentary Group JxCat 27 31
DC 2
AxR 1
IdE 1
Vox's Parliamentary Group in Catalonia Vox 10 10
Popular Unity Candidacy–A New Cycle to Win's
Parliamentary Group 		CUP 8 9
Guanyem 1
In Common We Can's Parliamentary Group CatComú 7 8
Podem 1
Citizens's Parliamentary Group CS 6 6
Mixed Group PP 3 3
Non-Inscrits INDEP 2[c] 2

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[16]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSC–PSOE
List
 Salvador Illa Social democracy 23.03% 33 ☒N [17]
[18]
[19]
ERC
List
 Pere Aragonès Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy 		21.30% 33 checkY [20]
Cat–Junts+
List
 Carles Puigdemont Catalan independence
Sovereigntism
Populism 		20.07% 32 ☒N [21]
[22]
[23]
Vox
List
 Ignacio Garriga Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		7.67% 11 ☒N [24]
CUP–DT
List
 Laia Estrada Catalan independence
Anti-capitalism
Socialism 		6.68% 9 ☒N [25]
Comuns
Sumar
List
 Jéssica Albiach Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Eco-socialism 		6.87%[a] 8 ☒N [26]
[27]
[28]
Cs
List
 Carlos Carrizosa Liberalism 5.58% 6 ☒N [29]
PP
List
 Alejandro Fernández Conservatism
Christian democracy 		3.85% 3 ☒N [30]
Aliança.cat
List
 Sílvia Orriols Catalan independence
Anti-immigration 		New party ☒N [31]

Ahead of the election, it was revealed that the People's Party (PP) and Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) were negotiating an electoral alliance that could be extended to the European Parliament election in June as well,[32] but talks broke down on 22 March—causing the resignation of Adrián Vázquez as secretary-general of CS—after the regional branch of CS in Catalonia rejected its dissolution.[33] The PP was also concerned on whether to keep Alejandro Fernández as the party's candidate or to replace him by another figure, such as former Health minister Dolors Montserrat.[34] On 26 March, the PP confirmed Fernández as the party's candidate and Montserrat as campaign manager.[30]

On 21 March, Together for Catalonia (Junts) leader Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium to avoid charges brought by Spanish authorities following the unrecognized referendum on Catalan independence from Spain in 2017, held a rally in Elne, France, near the Spanish border, saying that he would stand for office in the Parliament of Catalonia and seek to become regional president, which he had previously held prior to his exile.[35] On 26 March, Puigdemont announced the "Vernet Accord", an electoral alliance between Junts and several minor pro-independence parties: his former allies of Action for the Republic (AxR), The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV), Independence Rally (RI.cat), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat), and new ones such as Catalan State (EC) and Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL).[36] The next day, it was revealed that Puigdemont would run under the "Together+Puigdemont for Catalonia" (Cat–Junts+) platform.[37] Later, EV–AV announced that their party had not signed nor negotiated the alliance and were not a part of Junts since 2020.[23] Puigdemont pledged to return to Spain for the election of the Catalan presidency, by which time he expects to avail of a proposed amnesty on Catalan separatists raised by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.[38] Puigdemont also pledged to retire from politics if he loses the election.[39]

On 25 March, Catalan Alliance, a far-right party that led the local governments in the municipalities of Ripoll and Ribera d'Ondara, announced that they would be contesting the election with their leader, Sílvia Orriols, as their main candidate.[31]

On 27 March, Podemos announced that they would not contest the election.[40] The party had contested previous elections within the En Comú Podem alliance, alongside Catalonia in Common (CatComú). In a statement, the party stated that they did not wish to contribute to the fragmentation of the left-wing vote, as it had intended to contest the election on its own if an agreement could not be reached with their previous election partners, while blaming Catalunya en Comú for making an agreement "impossible".[41] The relationship of Podemos with other Spanish left-wing parties had been deteriorating since it broke with the Sumar coalition and joined the Mixed Group in the Spanish Congress of Deputies.[42] Following Podemos' withdrawal, CatComú and Sumar announced a joint list for the election under the name Comuns Sumar, with Jéssica Albiach as their main candidate.[43]

On 8 May, PSC, ERC, Junts, Comuns Sumar and CUP announced an Acord antifeixista (English: "Anti-fascist Accord"), an agreement that those parties would not enter into any coalition with Catalan Alliance or Vox.[44]

Timetable

[edit]

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):[16][45]

  • 18 March: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the President.[10]
  • 19 March: Formal dissolution of the Parliament of Catalonia and beginning of a suspension period of events for the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
  • 22 March: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions.
  • 29 March: Deadline for parties and federations intending to enter into a coalition to inform the relevant electoral commission.
  • 8 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates to the relevant electoral commission.
  • 10 April: Submitted lists of candidates are provisionally published in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).
  • 13 April: Deadline for citizens entered in the Register of Absent Electors Residing Abroad (CERA) and for citizens temporarily absent from Spain to apply for voting.
  • 14 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to rectify irregularities in their lists.
  • 15 April: Official proclamation of valid submitted lists of candidates.
  • 16 April: Proclaimed lists are published in the DOGC.
  • 26 April: Official start of electoral campaigning.[10]
  • 2 May: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
  • 7 May: Official start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication, dissemination or reproduction and deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
  • 8 May: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voters to issue their votes.
  • 10 May: Last day of official electoral campaigning and deadline for CERA citizens to vote in a ballot box in the relevant consular office or division.[10]
  • 11 May: Official 24-hour ban on political campaigning prior to the general election (reflection day).
  • 12 May: Polling day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote). Provisional counting of votes starts immediately.
  • 15 May: General counting of votes, including the counting of CERA votes.
  • 18 May: Deadline for the general counting of votes to be carried out by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 27 May: Deadline for elected members to be proclaimed by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 6 July: Final deadline for definitive results to be published in the DOGC.

Campaign

[edit]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
PSC–PSOE « Força per governar » "Strength to govern" [46]
ERC « Al costat de la gent. Al costat de Catalunya » "On the side of the people. On the side of Catalonia" [47]
Cat–Junts+ « Catalunya necessita [...] »[d] "Catalonia needs [...]"[d] [48]
Vox « En defensa propia » "In self-defence" [49]
CUP–DT « Defensem la terra. Un altre país és possible » "Let's defend the land. Another country is possible" [50]
Comuns Sumar « La Catalunya que ve » "The Catalonia that is coming" [51]
Cs « Detenlos » "Stop/Arrest them"[e] [52][53]
PP « Volem una Catalunya de Primera » "We want a First-class Catalonia" [54]
Aliança.cat « Salvem Catalunya » "Let's save Catalonia" [55]

Election debates

[edit]
2024 Catalan regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[f]    S  Surrogate[g]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
PSC ERC Junts+ Vox Comuns CUP Cs PP Audience Ref.
15 April PIMEC Cristina Riba P
Illa 		P
Aragonès 		S
Rull 		NI P
Albiach 		NI NI P
Fernández 		— [56]
26 April RAC 1
La Vanguardia 		Enric Sierra
Jordi Basté 		P
Illa 		P
Aragonès 		S
Rull 		P
Garriga 		P
Albiach 		P
Estrada 		P
Carrizosa 		P
Fernández 		— [57]
29 April ON Economia Xavier Alegret S
Romero 		S
Mas 		S
Rull 		NI S
Gallego 		S
Vega 		NI S
Rodríguez 		— [58]
29 April CAC Germán González S
Pedret 		S
Balsera 		S
Jubert 		S
Macián 		S
García 		S
Pellicer 		S
Reina 		S
Esteller 		— [59]
29 April XES
AMEP 		Georgina Pujol S
Riba 		S
Villalbí 		S
Canadell 		NI S
Badia 		S
Saladié 		S
Bravo 		S
Rodríguez 		— [60]
2 May RTVE Gemma Nierga
Xabier Fortes 		P
Illa 		P
Aragonès 		S
Rull 		P
Garriga 		P
Albiach 		P
Estrada 		P
Carrizosa 		P
Fernández 		7.6%
(130,000)[h] 		[61]
[62]
2 May PL Sílvia Barroso S
Niubó 		S
Vila 		S
Ten 		NI S
Bárcena 		S
Riera 		NI S
Martín 		— [63]
6 May laSexta Ana Pastor P
Illa 		P
Aragonès 		S
Rull 		P
Garriga 		P
Albiach 		S
Vega 		P
Carrizosa 		P
Fernández 		9.1%
(165,000)[i] 		[64]
[65]
6 May CNDC Eugènia Bretones S
Diaz 		S
Balsera 		S
Freixa 		NI S
Segovia 		S
Gibert 		NI S
Higuera 		—
7 May CCMA Ariadna Oltra P
Illa 		P
Aragonès 		S
Rull 		P
Garriga 		P
Albiach 		P
Estrada 		P
Carrizosa 		P
Fernández 		22.1%
(358,000) 		[66]
[67]
8 May No en Raja Anna Ramon S
Riba 		S
Villalbí 		S
Feliu 		NI S
Mijoler 		S
Cornellà 		S
Ciprian 		S
García 		— [68]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results from 14 February 2021 to 12 May 2024, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Voter turnout

[edit]

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

Province Time
13:00 18:00 20:00
2021 2024 +/– 2021 2024 +/– 2021 2024 +/–
Barcelona 22.48% 26.98% +4.50 45.81% 46.22% +0.41 53.75% 58.50% +4.75
Girona 24.30% 27.35% +3.05 46.99% 45.82% –1.17 54.77% 57.23% +2.46
Lleida 24.14% 25.39% +1.25 45.95% 43.37% –2.58 54.65% 56.40% +1.75
Tarragona 22.68% 26.66% +3.98 42.77% 44.07% +1.30 50.37% 55.51% +5.14
Total 22.77% 26.90% +4.13 45.61% 45.80% +0.19 53.54% 57.94% +4.40
Sources[70]

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 12 May 2024 Parliament of Catalonia election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) 882,589 27.96 +4.93 42 +9
Together+Carles Puigdemont for Catalonia (Cat–Junts+) 681,470 21.59 +1.52 35 +3
Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) 431,128 13.66 –7.64 20 –13
People's Party (PP) 347,170 11.00 +7.15 15 +12
Vox (Vox) 251,096 7.95 +0.28 11 ±0
Commons Unite (Comuns Sumar)1 184,297 5.84 –1.03 6 –2
Popular Unity Candidacy–Let's Defend the Land (CUP–DT) 129,059 4.09 –2.59 4 –5
Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat) 119,149 3.77 New 2 +2
Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA) 34,493 1.09 New 0 ±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 22,947 0.73 –4.85 0 –6
At the Same Time (Alhora)2 14,104 0.45 +0.24 0 ±0
Workers' Front (FO) 10,118 0.32 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Catalonia (PCTC) 4,212 0.13 –0.03 0 ±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 3,487 0.11 –0.34 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 2,760 0.09 +0.04 0 ±0
Left for Spain (IZQP–Unidos–DEf)3 1,892 0.06 –0.03 0 ±0
National Front of Catalonia (FNC) 269 0.01 –0.17 0 ±0
Convergents (CNV) 263 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 35,967 1.14 +0.29
Total 3,156,470 135 ±0
Valid votes 3,156,470 99.16 +0.60
Invalid votes 26,667 0.84 –0.60
Votes cast / turnout 3,183,137 55.31 +4.02
Abstentions 2,571,850 44.69 –4.02
Registered voters 5,754,987
Sources[71]
Footnotes:
  • 1 Commons Unite results are compared to In Common We Can–We Can In Common totals in the 2021 election.
  • 2 At the Same Time results are compared to Primaries for the Independence of Catalonia Movement totals in the 2021 election.
  • 3 Left for Spain results are compared to the combined totals of Left in Positive and United for Democracy+Retirees in the 2021 election.
Popular vote
PSC–PSOE
 
 27.96%
Cat–Junts+
 
 21.59%
ERC
 
 13.66%
PP
 
 11.00%
Vox
 
 7.95%
Comuns Sumar
 
 5.84%
CUP–DT
 
 4.09%
Aliança.cat
 
 3.77%
PACMA
 
 1.09%
Others
 
 1.90%
Blank ballots
 
 1.14%
Seats
PSC–PSOE
 
 31.11%
Cat–Junts+
 
 25.93%
ERC
 
 14.81%
PP
 
 11.11%
Vox
 
 8.15%
Comuns Sumar
 
 4.44%
CUP–DT
 
 2.96%
Aliança.cat
 
 1.48%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PSC Junts+ ERC PP Vox Comuns CUP–DT Aliança
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Barcelona 29.9 28 19.3 18 13.4 12 11.6 11 8.0 7 6.7 6 4.0 3 2.9 −
Girona 19.6 4 34.8 7 12.0 2 6.6 1 6.4 1 3.3 − 4.9 1 9.0 1
Lleida 20.6 4 30.3 5 16.3 3 9.2 1 6.2 1 2.2 − 4.2 − 7.8 1
Tarragona 25.5 6 21.2 5 16.0 3 11.8 2 10.2 2 3.9 − 4.0 − 3.5 −
Total 28.0 42 21.6 35 13.7 20 11.0 15 8.0 11 5.8 6 4.1 4 3.8 2
Sources[71]

Aftermath

[edit]
See also: Government of Salvador Illa

Following the release of the election results, Salvador Illa said that "Catalonia has decided to open a new era". He was also congratulated by Pedro Sánchez for the "historic result". Carles Puigdemont observed that his party was the "only pro-independence force to increase in votes and seats" but acknowledged the offset suffered by other separatist parties.[72] He also ruled out joining a coalition that included the PSC and suggested that Junts would try and restore their previous coalition with ERC.[73] On 13 May, Pere Aragonès announced his retirement from politics and ruled out ERC joining a coalition with Junts or the PSC, while the latter said that it was seeking to form a coalition with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and ruled out a Puigdemont-led government.[74]

On 29 July, ERC announced that it had reached an agreement to elect Illa as new regional president in exchange for executive powers to the Catalan government for collecting, managing and inspecting taxes.[75] The agreement was validated by ERC's membership by 53% in favour to 44% against,[76] as well as by the Republican Youth of Catalonia (JERC).[77] On 31 July, the Comuns also reached an agreement with the PSC to support Illa's investiture, thus ensuring enough votes for an election in the first round of voting.[78][79]

Investiture
Salvador Illa (PSC)
Ballot → 8 August 2024
Required majority → 68 out of 135 checkY
Yes
68 / 135
No
66 / 135
Abstentions
0 / 135
Absentees
1 / 135
Sources[80]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Results for ECP–PEC in the 2021 election.
  2. ^ Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
  3. ^ Cristina Casol, former JxCat legislator,[14] and Antonio Gallego, former Vox legislator.[15]
  4. ^ a b The party launched a multi-message slogan, with a number of interchangeable expressions:
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita lideratge (English: "Catalonia needs leadership")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita bon Govern (English: "Catalonia needs good Government")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita fer-se respectar (English: "Catalonia needs to make itself respected")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita viure en català (English: "Catalonia needs to live in Catalan")
    • Catalan: Catalunya necessita la independència (English: "Catalonia needs the independence")
  5. ^ Spanish detener has double meaning. In reference to Pedro Sánchez and Carles Puigdemont, "stopping" the former and "arresting" the latter.
  6. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  7. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  8. ^ In Catalonia, the debate was broadcast on La 1 (117,000; 6.8%) and 24 Horas (13,000; 0.8%). Nationwide, the debate was broadcast on 24 Horas (109,000; 0.9%).
  9. ^ The debate was broadcast nationwide, obtaining an audience of 5.8% (720,000).
  10. ^ Alternative projection based on raw CIS data.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au Within ECP.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ a b "Encuesta a pie de urna (Metroscopia): PSC gana y sube hasta 9 escaños". As (in Spanish). 12 May 2024.
  2. ^ "Las encuestas dan la victoria al PSC y dejan a ERC entre Illa y Puigdemont". El Plural (in Spanish). 12 May 2024.
  3. ^ "Encuesta GESOP: Illa gana y Puigdemont supera a ERC, pero ninguno de los dos tendría mayorías claras para gobernar". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 12 May 2024.
  4. ^ "Sondeig El Nacional: Illa guanyaria les eleccions a Catalunya 2024 però Puigdemont pot empatar en escons". Diari d'Andorra (in Catalan). 12 May 2024.
  5. ^ "Salvador Illa gana con claridad; los separatistas al borde de perder la mayoría absoluta". El Español (in Spanish). 12 May 2024.
  6. ^ "Illa guanya en vots i Puigdemont pot superar-lo en escons en l'últim sondeig electoral del 12-M". Diari d'Andorra (in Catalan). 11 May 2024.
  7. ^ "Sondeo elecciones catalanas 2024: el PSC ganaría, Junts quedaría segundo y peligra la mayoría independentista". RTVE (in Spanish). 10 May 2024.
  8. ^ "Carles Puigdemont atrapa Salvador Illa en el tancament de la campanya electoral catalana". Diari d'Andorra (in Catalan). 10 May 2024.
  9. ^ "Catalunya llega a las urnas con el PSC destacado en cabeza y el independentismo en manos de Aliança Catalana". The Adelaide Review (in Spanish). 11 May 2024.
  10. ^ "Carles Puigdemont frega l'empat amb Salvador Illa a 24 hores del tancament de la campanya electoral a Catalunya". Diari d'Andorra (in Catalan). 9 May 2024.
  11. ^ "Illa y Puigdemont siguen bajando y Aragonès se recupera en el esprint final de la campaña". The Adelaide Review (in Spanish). 10 May 2024.
  12. ^ "La subida de los indecisos perjudica a PSC, Junts y ERC en beneficio del PP y Aliança Catalana". The Adelaide Review (in Spanish). 9 May 2024.
  13. ^ "Carles Puigdemont s'apropa a Salvador Illa en la recta final de la campanya del 12-M a Catalunya". Diari d'Andorra (in Catalan). 8 May 2024.
  14. ^ "ERC recupera dos escaños y Aliança Catalana frena en seco su ascenso". The Adelaide Review (in Spanish). 8 May 2024.
  15. ^ "La pugna entre Salvador Illa i Carles Puigdemont s'estreny a 5 dies de les eleccions a Catalunya". Diari d'Andorra (in Catalan). 7 May 2024.
  16. ^ "El tracking final del 12-M: Puigdemont entra con fuerza en la última semana mientras Illa toca techo". El Mundo (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  17. ^ "Solo un tripartito de PSC, ERC y Comuns evitaría un bloqueo electoral en Catalunya". Público (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  18. ^ "El PSC ganará, el separatismo no tendrá mayoría e Illa necesitará a ERC o Junts para gobernar". OKDiario (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  19. ^ "PSC y Junts mantienen su duelo mientras ERC sigue bajando y la extrema derecha se refuerza". The Adelaide Review (in Spanish). 7 May 2024.
  20. ^ "Encuesta El Nacional: Puigdemont se acerca a Illa en el último sondeo antes del 12-M". El Nacional (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  21. ^ "L'última enquesta de VilaWeb deixa obertes les majories per a governar". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 6 May 2024.
  22. ^ a b "Último sondeo: el PSC de Illa ganará las catalanas pero no podrá gobernar si no pacta con Junts o ERC". El Español (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  23. ^ "Salvador Illa se acerca al Palau de la Generalitat con 41 escaños". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  24. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: El PSC baixaria per primera vegada d'ençà que va començar la campanya". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 6 May 2024.
  25. ^ "Salvador Illa superaría los resultados que llevaron al PSC a gobernar la Generalitat mientras el independentismo dependería de Aliança Catalana". Agenda Pública (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  26. ^ "Encuesta sobre elecciones en Cataluña" (PDF). Cluster17 (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  27. ^ a b "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: el PSC roza la victoria y Junts refuerza su ventaja sobre ERC". El Periódico (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  28. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: Un frec a frec disputat causa un ball d'escons a Barcelona". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 5 May 2024.
  29. ^ "Illa resiste en cabeza con hasta 40 escaños, pero Puigdemont estrecha distancias". La Razón (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  30. ^ a b "El PSC ganará de manera amplia pero sin asegurar el cambio en Cataluña". ABC (in Spanish). 5 May 2024.
  31. ^ "Junts hace llegar a sus dirigentes una encuesta propia con un empate entre Puigdemont y Illa". El Nacional (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  32. ^ "Una encuesta de Junts augura un empate en escaños entre Puigdemont y el socialista Illa". El Liberal.cat (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  33. ^ "Enquesta de l'ARA: L'efecte Sánchez impulsa el PSC i posa en dubte la majoria independentista". Ara (in Catalan). 4 May 2024.
  34. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: El PSC es manté fort però el parlament s'aboca a una situació incerta". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 4 May 2024.
  35. ^ "Illa ganaría las elecciones con el separatismo bordeando la mayoría de un Parlamento bloqueado". El Debate (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  36. ^ "El PSC se consolida en cabeza con Junts a la zaga". El País (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  37. ^ a b c "Informe preelectoral para las elecciones catalanas. Ola 2. Mayo 2024" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  38. ^ "El PSC ganaría las elecciones con Puigdemont al acecho y la gobernabilidad quedará sin resolver". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  39. ^ a b "Junts ganaría de nuevo en Lleida y el PSC obtendría la victoria en Catalunya". Segre (in Spanish). 5 May 2024.
  40. ^ "Encuesta DYM. El PSC gana pero podría no sumar con ERC y la gobernabilidad quedaría en vilo". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  41. ^ "Encuesta El Nacional: Illa mantiene la ventaja sobre Puigdemont a caballo del efecto Sánchez". El Nacional (in Spanish). 4 May 2024.
  42. ^ "La suma del independentismo amenaza la amplia victoria de Illa: el partido antiinmigración de Orriols es clave". El Mundo (in Spanish). 5 May 2024.
  43. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: S'escurça la distància entre Junts i ERC, que s'allunyen de la majoria". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 3 May 2024.
  44. ^ "El amago de dimisión de Sánchez lleva a Illa a los 42 escaños y aleja la mayoría separatista de Puigdemont". El Español (in Spanish). 2 May 2024.
  45. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: S'escurça la distància entre Junts i ERC, que s'allunyen de la majoria". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 2 May 2024.
  46. ^ a b c d "Campaña de las elecciones autonómicas de Cataluña 2024 (Estudio nº 3456. Abril 2024)". CIS (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  47. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3456. Campaña de las elecciones autonómicas de Cataluña 2024)". CIS (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  48. ^ "El PSC ganaría con holgura las catalanas, según Celeste-Tel". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 3 May 2024.
  49. ^ "[A] CATALUÑA. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 03/05/2024: PSC 28,3% (40), CAT-JUNTS+ 20,5% (32), ERC 17,4% (26), PP 9,6% (13), VOX 7,4% (10), COMUNS SUMAR 5,8% (6), CUP-DT 4,6% (6), ALIANÇA.CAT 3,1% (2), CS 1,0%". Electográfica (in Spanish). 4 May 2024.
  50. ^ "El PSC consolida su victoria con el 'sorpasso' de Puigdemont a ERC y el PP al alza". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  51. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: Aliança Catalana entraria al parlament i el PSC s'estancaria". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 1 May 2024.
  52. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: El PSC modera el creixement i Aliança Catalana seria a punt d'entrar a Barcelona". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 30 April 2024.
  53. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: Sánchez enlairaria Illa i l'independentisme perdria la majoria". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 29 April 2024.
  54. ^ "El PSC lidera los sondeos y podría formar gobierno con ERC y Comuns ante un imposible pacto independentista". Público (in Spanish). 27 April 2024.
  55. ^ "Enquesta de VilaWeb: El PSC suma dos escons i millora l'avantatge, tot esperant la decisió de Sánchez". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 28 April 2024.
  56. ^ "Elecciones en Cataluña: Illa gana hasta dos escaños en plena reflexión de Sánchez". La Razón (in Spanish). 29 April 2024.
  57. ^ "S'escurça la distància entre Illa i Puigdemont, però ERC decidirà, segons l'enquesta de VilaWeb". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 27 April 2024.
  58. ^ a b "Encuesta de GAD3 para Mediaset sobre las elecciones catalanas: el PSC ganaría con ventaja sobre los independentistas". Cuatro (in Spanish). 28 April 2024.
  59. ^ "Barómetro Mediaset. Estimación elecciones catalanas". GAD3 (in Spanish). 30 April 2024.
  60. ^ "El PP se queda sin su gran objetivo: obtener representación en todas las provincias". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 29 April 2024.
  61. ^ "Encuesta El Nacional: La campaña del 12-M arranca con Illa en cabeza y Puigdemont distanciado de Aragonès". El Nacional (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  62. ^ "Illa ganaría las elecciones pero Puigdemont tendría todas las papeletas para lograr la Generalitat". El Debate (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  63. ^ "Enquesta de l'ARA: Avantatge del PSC pel 12-M amb una majoria independentista difícilment operativa". Ara (in Catalan). 27 April 2024.
  64. ^ "La sociedad catalana prioriza la economía al independentismo. Informe Opinión Pública y elecciones en Cataluña 2024" (PDF). Llorente y Cuenca (in Spanish). 26 April 2024.
  65. ^ "Enquesta electoral al Parlament de Catalunya 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 26 April 2024.
  66. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral de Cataluña. Elecciones autonómicas 2024 (Estudio nº 3453. Abril 2024)". CIS (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  67. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3453. Preelectoral de Cataluña. Elecciones autonómicas 2024)". CIS (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  68. ^ a b "Salvador Illa mantiene su ventaja, el 'efecto Puigdemont' se diluye y los separatistas no suman". El Español (in Spanish). 21 April 2024.
  69. ^ "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC se afianza en cabeza y Junts toma la delantera en su pulso con ERC". El Periódico (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  70. ^ "El PSC parte con clara ventaja en Cataluña con Junts al alza y la caída de ERC". El País (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  71. ^ a b c "Informe preelectoral para las elecciones catalanas. Abril 2024" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  72. ^ "Illa ganaría con holgura en Catalunya mientras el independentismo perdería la mayoría absoluta". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  73. ^ "Un sondeo de los Comuns apunta que el PSC ganaría con 40 escaños, Junts tendría 30 y ERC 28". Europa Press (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  74. ^ "El PP crece en Barcelona y supera a Vox como segunda fuerza constitucionalista en Cataluña". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 13 April 2024.
  75. ^ "Junts ganaría en Lleida con 6 escaños y el PSC en Catalunya, pero con mayoría soberanista". El Español (in Spanish). 2 May 2024.
  76. ^ "Illa ganaría el 12M pero quedará en manos del separatismo para gobernar en plena amnistía". OKDiario (in Spanish). 1 April 2024.
  77. ^ "Las elecciones catalanas darían forma a un Parlament ingobernable". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
  78. ^ "El 'efecto Puigdemont' no frena a Illa y el independentismo se queda muy lejos de poder gobernar Cataluña". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 March 2024.
  79. ^ a b c "El PSC ganaría las elecciones catalanas a Junts y ERC, que libran una apretada pugna". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 24 March 2024.
  80. ^ a b "Illa lograría hoy 42 escaños: tendría mayoría con ERC o Junts sin necesitar a los Comunes". El Español (in Spanish). 18 March 2024.
  81. ^ "Encuesta elecciones catalanas: El PSC ganaría pero Puigdemont superaría a ERC". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 March 2024.
  82. ^ a b "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC sale en cabeza y se mantiene la pugna entre ERC y Junts". El Periódico (in Spanish). 18 March 2024.
  83. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 21 March 2024.
  84. ^ "ElectoPanel Cataluña: así estaban las cosas el 28 de febrero". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2024.
  85. ^ "Junts supera a ERC y recupera el liderazgo entre los votantes independentistas". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 25 February 2024.
  86. ^ "El PP da el 'sorpasso' a Vox en Cataluña tras los acuerdos de Sánchez con los nacionalistas". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 15 January 2024.
  87. ^ "La amnistía favorece a ERC, hunde a Junts y deja al PSC como ganador en Cataluña". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 6 December 2023.
  88. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  89. ^ "Illa ganaría hoy las elecciones catalanas y Junts sería la segunda fuerza política". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 16 October 2023.
  90. ^ "Carles Puigdemont ya rentabiliza la negociación con Pedro Sánchez y superaría a ERC en unas generales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 September 2023.
  91. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 July 2023.
  92. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2023.
  93. ^ "ERC ganaría las elecciones catalanas: el independentismo vuelve a sumar". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 13 December 2022.
  94. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 9 November 2022.
  95. ^ a b c "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC afianza su ventaja y ERC se impone a Junts tras la ruptura del Govern". El Periódico (in Spanish). 16 October 2022.
  96. ^ "EP Cataluña (15oct): continúa la lucha PSC-ERC. Subida de Valents". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2022.
  97. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 July 2022.
  98. ^ "CatPanel (31My): Valents irrumpe en el Parlament. ERC en cabeza, con el PSC detrás". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 May 2022.
  99. ^ "El PSC se impondría en las elecciones catalanas y el independentismo recularía". El Nacional (in Spanish). 23 May 2022.
  100. ^ "¿Quién ganaría las elecciones en Catalunya en plena polémica por el espionaje de Pegasus?". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 May 2022.
  101. ^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta Ipsos 14/05/2022: CUP 7,8% (10), JxCAT 15,7% (25), ERC 20,8% (33), PDeCAT 1,5%, ECP-PEC 7,6% (9), PSC 25,2% (36), Cs 3,5% (3), PP 5,8% (7), VOX 9,3% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 May 2022.
  102. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 7 April 2022.
  103. ^ "Empate PSC-ERC, Junts baja y Vox cuarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2021.
  104. ^ "ERC adelanta al PSC, que también ampliaría su ventaja sobre Junts". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
  105. ^ "CatPanel (15JL): bajada de Vox, que es sorpassado por la CUP. Subida del PSC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2021.
  106. ^ a b "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2021" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 May 2021.
  107. ^ a b "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: Una repetición electoral reforzaría a PSC y a ERC, y haría caer a Junts". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
  108. ^ "El PSC ampliaría su ventaja y ERC superaría a Junts si se votara otra vez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
  109. ^ "Elecciones en Cataluña: Castigo a JxCat por el "no" a ERC y trasvase de votos de Cs al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  110. ^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta NC Report 03/04/2021: CUP-G 6,9% (9), JxCAT 19,2% (31), ERC 22,4% (34), ECP-PEC 6,7% (8), PSC 23,5% (34), Cs 3,1% (2), PP 5,4% (5), VOX 8,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  111. ^ "Los socialistas de Illa solo conseguirían mayoría absoluta con el prófugo Puigdemont". Diario de León (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  112. ^ "Enquesta electoral al Parlament de Catalunya 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 26 April 2024.
  113. ^ "La encuesta de EL PERIÓDICO sobre las elecciones en Catalunya, al completo: tablas, cruces y respuestas de cada entrevistado". El Periódico (in Spanish). 25 April 2024.
  114. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2024. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 21 March 2024.
  115. ^ a b "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2023" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 12 January 2024.
  116. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  117. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 July 2023.
  118. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2023. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2023.
  119. ^ a b "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2022" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 13 January 2023.
  120. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 9 November 2022.
  121. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2022. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 July 2022.
  122. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2022. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 7 April 2022.
  123. ^ "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2021". ICPS (in Catalan). 3 December 2021.
  124. ^ "Sondeo de GAD3 para 'La Vanguardia'. Ficha técnica". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
  125. ^ "Método de estimación de voto y escaños". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
  126. ^ a b "Sondeo elecciones Catalunya: Los catalanes prefieren un pacto PSC-ERC a otro Govern independentista". El Periódico (in Spanish). 5 May 2024.
  127. ^ a b "Sondeo elecciones Catalunya: Los catalanes prefieren a Illa como president y puntúan mejor a Aragonès que a Puigdemont". El Periódico (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
  128. ^ a b "Sondeo elecciones Catalunya: Los catalanes dan ganador a Illa, puntúan mejor a Aragonès y prefieren como president a Puigdemont". El Periódico (in Spanish). 19 March 2024.
  129. ^ "Puigdemont se beneficia de la inhabilitación de Junqueras y barre a Aragonès como líder independentista". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 6 May 2024.
  130. ^ "Illa mantiene cinco puntos de ventaja a Puigdemont como presidente favorito de los catalanes". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 30 April 2024.
  131. ^ "La inmensa mayoría de catalanes prefieren a Salvador Illa de 'president' de la Generalitat". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 1 April 2024.
  132. ^ "Sondeo Catalunya: Illa es el preferido como 'president' y Aragonès aventaja a Puigdemont". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
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