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COVID-19/All-cause deaths

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This material is about all-cause deaths especially as they relate to COVID-19, created by Dan Polansky, including text, scripting, analysis/computation design and plotting.

What follows are all-cause death charts for multiple countries, most of which were created from data from Human Mortality Database (HMD), mortality.org[1], a collaboration between organizations from Germany, the U.S., and France: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; University of California, Berkeley and INED, Paris. Some charts were created from other sources.

Note: The charts were originally plotted using the graphing plugin/extension of the Mediawiki software. Many charts have now been replotted as svg and display well; one can also view the svg file separately and zoom into it. The charts that have not yet been replotted as svg are not shown since the graphing plugin/extension of the Mediawiki software is disabled for security reasons. For those charts, with a bit of effort, one can pick the data marked up for the graphing plugin from the source wiki markup (after pressing "Edit source"), transfer it to a spreadsheet, and plot it there. There is more information at mediawiki.org and phabricator.org.

Source of data

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There are repetitive disclaimers under the charts about the data being preliminary.

Registration delay: The data from 2020 suffers from registration delay. The last two weeks suffer especially badly, but other weeks are also not free from the registration delay effect.

The number of years covered varies, depending on how much data HMD was able to obtain from the countries. Some data starts in 2000. The more years included, the stronger conclusion one can make about how rare the COVID death elevation in 2020 is compared to other years.

Scripts

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Python scripts to create the charts are at /Scripts.

All regions

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Some countries and regions are transcluded in sections below, while some are only in their separate pages, to prevent chart rendering problems and speed up page loading. Regions covered:

See also Category:Pages with graphs.

Many more countries could be added from world_mortality.csv, using script plotWmd.py.

All region ratios using HMD

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What follows are all-region all-cause death ratios for Covid and pre-Covid year ranges using Human Mortality Database (HMD). We pick year lengths 2, 3 and 4, treating 2020 as the first Covid year and 2019 as the last pre-Covid year.

Reservations:

  • This method of calculation is very simple and can be misleading.
  • The "dry tinder" effect can happen: a country will have very few excess deaths in the pre-Covid years and as a result more excess deaths in the Covid years, resulting in a higher ratio. In case of doubt, it is advisable to inspect all-cause death charts on a per-region basis.
  • There is no accounting for different age structure.
  • There is no accounting for changes in the base population size. Thus, a country whose relevant part of the base population was declining is going to turn out better than a country for which it was going up.
  • This method has not been reviewed by a professional.
  • Someone should try to do an independent plotting using the same method and confirm they get the same results (the scripts have not been reviewed).

Bulgaria

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Weekly all-cause deaths in Bulgaria, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[2], 3-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

Weekly all-cause deaths in Bulgaria for 0-14 year olds, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[3], 7-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

All-cause deaths in Bulgaria in weeks 1-15, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[4]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause deaths in Bulgaria in weeks 40+ the year before and weeks 1-15 of the year, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[5]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause death excess percentage in Bulgaria, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[6]:

Above, the minimum over previous last 5 years is taken as the baseline against which the excess is calculated, and the last year is dropped as incomplete.

Script oneliners to update the charts:

  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv BGR DTotal 3 --svg
  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv BGR D0_14 7 --svg
  • plotHmdPerYear.py stmf.csv BGR DTotal
  • plotHmdPerSeason.py stmf.csv BGR DTotal
  • plotHmdExcessDeathPercPerYear.py stmf.csv BGR DTotal 5 --svg

See also:

External links:

Denmark

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Weekly all-cause deaths in Denmark, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[7], 3-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

Weekly all-cause deaths in Denmark for 0-14 year olds, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[8], 7-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

All-cause deaths in Denmark in weeks 1-18, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[9]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause deaths in Denmark in weeks 40+ the year before and weeks 1-18 of the year, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[10]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause death excess percentage in Denmark, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[11]:

Above, the minimum over previous last 5 years is taken as the baseline against which the excess is calculated, and the last year is dropped as incomplete.

Script oneliners to update the charts:

  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv DNK DTotal 3 --svg
  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv DNK D0_14 7 --svg
  • plotHmdPerYear.py stmf.csv DNK DTotal
  • plotHmdPerSeason.py stmf.csv DNK DTotal
  • plotHmdExcessDeathPercPerYear.py stmf.csv DNK DTotal 5 --svg

See also:

External links:

England and Wales

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Weekly all-cause deaths in England and Wales, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[12], 3-week average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

Weekly all-cause deaths in England and Wales for 0-14 year olds, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[13], 7-week average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

All-cause deaths in England and Wales in weeks 1-17, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[14]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause deaths in England and Wales in weeks 40+ the year before and weeks 1-17 of the year, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[15]::

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause death excess percentage in England and Wales, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[16]:

Above, the minimum over previous last 5 years is taken as the baseline against which the excess is calculated, and the last year is dropped as incomplete.

Script oneliners to update the charts:

  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv GBRTENW DTotal 3 --svg
  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv GBRTENW D0_14 7 --svg
  • plotHmdPerYear.py stmf.csv GBRTENW DTotal
  • plotHmdPerSeason.py stmf.csv GBRTENW DTotal
  • plotHmdExcessDeathPercPerYear.py stmf.csv GBRTENW DTotal 5 --svg

See also:

External links:

Germany

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Weekly all-cause deaths in Germany based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv [17], 3-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded as suffering significantly from registration delay.

Weekly all-cause deaths in Germany for 0-14 year olds, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[18], 7-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

All-cause deaths in Germany in weeks 1-17, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[19]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause deaths in Germany in weeks 40+ the year before and weeks 1-17 of the year, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[20]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause death excess percentage in Germany, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[21]:

Above, the minimum over previous last 5 years is taken as the baseline against which the excess is calculated, and the last year is dropped as incomplete.

Script oneliners to update the charts:

  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv DEUTNP DTotal 3 --svg
  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv DEUTNP D0_14 7 --svg
  • plotHmdPerYear.py stmf.csv DEUTNP DTotal
  • plotHmdPerSeason.py stmf.csv DEUTNP DTotal
  • plotHmdExcessDeathPercPerYear.py stmf.csv DEUTNP DTotal 5 --svg

See also:

External links:

Italy

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Weekly all-cause deaths in Italy based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[22], 3-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

Weekly all-cause deaths in Italy for 0-14 year olds, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[23], 7-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

All-cause deaths in Italy in weeks 1-10, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[24]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause deaths in Italy in weeks 40+ the year before and weeks 1-10 of the year, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[25]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause death excess percentage in Italy, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[26]:

Above, the minimum over previous last 5 years is taken as the baseline against which the excess is calculated, and the last year is dropped as incomplete.

Script oneliners to update the charts:

  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv ITA DTotal 3 --svg
  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv ITA D0_14 7 --svg
  • plotHmdPerYear.py stmf.csv ITA DTotal
  • plotHmdPerSeason.py stmf.csv ITA DTotal
  • plotHmdExcessDeathPercPerYear.py stmf.csv ITA DTotal 5 --svg

See also:

External links:

Spain

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Weekly all-cause deaths in Spain, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[27], 3-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

Weekly all-cause deaths in Spain for 0-14 year olds, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[28], 7-week moving average:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay.

All-cause deaths in Spain in weeks 1-15, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[29]:

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause deaths in Spain in weeks 40+ the year before and weeks 1-15 of the year, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[30]::

mortality.org indicates the data for the last weeks to be preliminary; above, the last two weeks available from mortality.org were excluded to prevent the worst effect of registration delay. The above is not adjusted by population size.

All-cause death excess percentage in Spain, year by year, based on mortality.org data, stmf.csv[31]:

Above, the minimum over previous last 5 years is taken as the baseline against which the excess is calculated, and the last year is dropped as incomplete.

Script oneliners to update the charts:

  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv ESP DTotal 3 --svg
  • plotHmd.py stmf.csv ESP D0_14 7 --svg
  • plotHmdPerYear.py stmf.csv ESP DTotal
  • plotHmdPerSeason.py stmf.csv ESP DTotal
  • plotHmdExcessDeathPercPerYear.py stmf.csv ESP DTotal 5 --svg

See also:

External links:

Age-standardized mortality

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ONS article linked below has weekly age-standardised mortality rates in 2020, which includes Montenegro, Serbia, Wales and Northern Ireland, and shows comparison between the selected country and England in a chart. The mortality rates are per 100,000 and are age-standardized.

A staggering observation is that the overall normal-mortality differences between countries make much more of a difference than the COVID does, as apparent e.g. from comparing low-rate Switzerland and high-rate Serbia; they do so year after year and are going to in near future. Switzerland's mid-term low values (as opposed to peak values) are at or below 15 weekly deaths per 100,000 while Serbia's are about 25 weekly deaths per 100,000.

Links:

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