Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe

Michael Artis and Massimiliano Marcellino

No 142, Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University

Abstract: This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective of the European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analysed using conventional techniques and found to be reassuring.

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Related works:
Working Paper: Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe (1998)
Working Paper: Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe (1998)
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