Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area

G. Bodo, Roberto Golinelli and Giuseppe Parigi

Working Papers from Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi

Abstract: The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short-term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity.

Keywords: FORECASTS; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION; BUSINESS MANAGEMENT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M10 M11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (40)

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Journal Article: Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area (2000)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area (2000)
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