Details about Roberto Golinelli

Homepage:	https://sites.google.com/site/robigolinelli/
Postal address:	Department of Economics Strada Maggiore, 45 40125 - Bologna Italy
Workplace:	Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (Department of Economics), Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna (University of Bologna), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Roberto Golinelli.

Last updated 2024-11-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pgo234

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Working Papers

2022

1. Professionals Forecasting Inflation: The Role of Inattentiveness and Uncertainty
   Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

2019

2. Uncertainty, Perception and the Internet
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (16)

2018

3. Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (3)

2016

4. A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (23)
5. Generalized State-Dependent Models: A Multivariate Approach
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna

2015

6. Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior: empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna
   Also in Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University (2015)

2014

7. ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (1)
   Also in Working Papers LuissLab, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli (2014) View citations (1)
8. Inflation Expectations and the Two Forms of Inattentiveness
   Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section
9. The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time
   Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time, Empirical Economics, Springer (2017) View citations (10) (2017)

2013

10. Output potenziale, gap e inflazione in Italia nel lungo periodo (1861-2010): un'analisi econometrica
    Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (4)
11. Tracking world trade and GDP in real time
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Tracking world trade and GDP in real time, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2014) View citations (31) (2014)

2012

12. Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (10)
13. Forecasting world output: the rising importance of emerging economies
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (7)
14. Household Inflation Expectations: Information Gathering, Inattentive or Stubborn ?
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna

2011

15. Did Growth and Reforms Increase Citizens Support for the Transition?
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2011)
    See also Journal Article Did growth and reforms increase citizens' support for the transition?, European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier (2013) View citations (15) (2013)

2009

16. Family firms and investments
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (17)
17. Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Who Are the 'Active' and 'Passive' Learners?
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna

2008

18. The cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area. Why do results of empirical research differ so strongly?
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (35)

2007

19. Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence froma a panel of Italian manufacturing firms
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (82) (2010)

2006

20. Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (11)

2005

21. Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (13)

2004

22. Corporate taxation and its reform:the effects on corporate financing decisions in Italy
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (4)

2003

23. What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (11)

2002

24. Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
    Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence View citations (26)
25. Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries
    Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna (2001) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2005) View citations (53) (2005)
26. Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (14)

2001

27. Hungary and Poland
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (48)
28. Is financial leverage mean-reverting? Unit root tests and corporate financing models
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (5)

2000

29. Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area View citations (43)
    Also in Working Papers, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi (2000) View citations (40)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area, Empirical Economics, Springer (2000) View citations (4) (2000)

1998

30. Fatti stilizzati e metodi econometrici "Moderni": una rivalutazione della Curva di Phillips per l'Italia (1951-1996)
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (2)
31. Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships. Analysis of price-wages models for Poland and Hungary
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna
    See also Journal Article Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price-Wages Models for Poland and Hungary, Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer (2000) View citations (2) (2000)

1996

32. Exchange rate Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: the Case of Poland and Hungary
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (11)
    Also in Ace Project Memoranda, Department of Economics, University of Leicester
    See also Journal Article Exchange Rate, Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary, Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer (1998) View citations (4) (1998)
33. Modellazione Econometrica per la previsione congiunturale: un esercizio su produzione, prezzi e moneta
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (1)

1994

34. Price-Wage Dynamics is A Transition Economy: The Case of Poland
    Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Price-Wage Dynamics in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland, Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer (1994) View citations (11) (1994)

1989

35. Medium Term Prospects for the European Economies
    Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy

Journal Articles

2022

1. Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness
   (Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area)
   Oxford Economic Papers, 2022, 74, (3), 701-720 View citations (1)

2021

2. EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index
   Economica, 2021, 88, (352), 969-1015 View citations (9)

2020

3. A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics
   Journal of Corporate Finance, 2020, 64, (C) View citations (2)

2018

4. Short- and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics
   Empirical Economics, 2018, 54, (2), 343-378 View citations (6)

2017

5. The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time
   Empirical Economics, 2017, 53, (1), 79-99 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time, Working Papers (2014) View citations (7) (2014)

2015

6. The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012
   Explorations in Economic History, 2015, 56, (C), 53-70 View citations (1)

2014

7. Tracking world trade and GDP in real time
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (4), 847-862 View citations (31)
   See also Working Paper Tracking world trade and GDP in real time, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) (2013) View citations (7) (2013)

2013

8. Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It
   Rivista di statistica ufficiale, 2013, 15, (1), 17-45 View citations (11)
9. Did growth and reforms increase citizens' support for the transition?
   European Journal of Political Economy, 2013, 30, (C), 112-137 View citations (15)
   See also Working Paper Did Growth and Reforms Increase Citizens Support for the Transition?, Working Papers (2011) (2011)
10. Family firms’ investments, uncertainty and opacity
    Small Business Economics, 2013, 40, (4), 1035-1058 View citations (37)
11. THE MACROECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR ITALY (MEMO-IT): POLICY EVALUATION AND FUTURE CHALLANGES
    RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, 2013, 67, (2), 172-179 View citations (1)
12. What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey
    European Economic Review, 2013, 61, (C), 1-13 View citations (47)

2012

13. The effect of neglecting the slope parameters’ heterogeneity on dynamic models of corporate capital structure
    Quantitative Finance, 2012, 12, (11), 1733-1751 View citations (7)

2010

14. Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models
    Empirical Economics, 2010, 39, (2), 303-336 View citations (20)
15. Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, 10, (1), 32 View citations (12)
16. Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, 32, (1), 218-238 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence froma a panel of Italian manufacturing firms, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) (2007) View citations (3) (2007)

2009

17. The Cyclical Reaction of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: The Role of Modelling Choices and Data Vintages
    Fiscal Studies, 2009, 30, (1), 39-72 View citations (63)
    Also in Fiscal Studies, 2009, 30, (1), 39-72 (2009) View citations (77)

2008

18. Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2008, 24, (3), 368-385 View citations (21)

2007

19. The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries
    Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 26, (2), 77-94 View citations (60)

2006

20. Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006, 28, (9), 943-964 View citations (73)

2005

21. Corporate Tax Reforms and Financial Choices: An Empirical Analysis
    Giornale degli Economisti, 2005, 64, (2-3), 271-294 View citations (2)
22. Le famiglie italiane e l'introduzione dell'euro: storia di uno shock annunciato
    Politica economica, 2005, (2), 201-226 View citations (9)
23. Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2005, 29, (1), 183-201 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries, Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers (2002) View citations (9) (2002)

2004

24. Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 20, (3), 447-460 View citations (215)
25. Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity: A Cross Country Comparison
    Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2004, 2004, (2), 147-170 View citations (49)

2002

26. Core inflation in the Euro area
    Applied Economics Letters, 2002, 9, (6), 353-357 View citations (26)
27. Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area
    The European Journal of Finance, 2002, 8, (4), 371-401 View citations (73)
28. Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991‐99
    The Economics of Transition, 2002, 10, (1), 55-91 View citations (8)

2001

29. Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area
    Empirical Economics, 2000, 25, (4), 541-561 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) (2000) View citations (43) (2000)

2000

30. Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price-Wages Models for Poland and Hungary
    Economic Change and Restructuring, 2000, 33, (1-2), 19-51 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships. Analysis of price-wages models for Poland and Hungary, Working Papers (1998) (1998)

1998

31. Exchange Rate, Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary
    Economic Change and Restructuring, 1998, 31, (1), 29-55 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Exchange rate Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: the Case of Poland and Hungary, Working Papers (1996) View citations (11) (1996)
32. Fatti stilizzati e metodi econometrici "moderni": una rivisitazione della curva di Phillips per l'Italia (1951-1996)
    Politica economica, 1998, (3), 411-446 View citations (5)

1994

33. Price-Wage Dynamics in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland
    Economic Change and Restructuring, 1994, 27, (3), 293-313 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Price-Wage Dynamics is A Transition Economy: The Case of Poland, Working Papers (1994) View citations (9) (1994)

Chapters

2010

1. Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods
   A chapter in The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, 2010, vol. 33, pp 227-235 View citations (2)