Working Papers

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2417: Gender Gaps in the Federal Reserve System

Deepa Datta and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2416: Real Exchange Rates and the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Davis and Andrei Zlate

2415: The Problem of Quality Change in Historical Price Statistics: An Illustrative Example Using Baedeker Travel Guides

Jarod Coulter, Braden Strackman and Mark Wynne

2414: Nonparametric Local Projections

Silvia Goncalves, Ana María Herrera, Lutz Kilian and Elena Pesavento

2413: Labor Market Effects of Worker- and Employer-Targeted Immigration Enforcement

Pia Orrenius, Chloe N. Smith and Madeline Zavodny

2412: Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg

Isabel Gödl-Hanisch, Ronald Mau and Jonathan Rawls

2411: Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?

Tucker Smith

2410: What Imports to Import Prices?

Enrique Martínez García and Braden Strackman

2409: The Macroeconomics of Labor, Credit and Financial Market Imperfections

Miroslav Gabrovski, Ioannis Kospentaris and Lucie Lebeau

2408: What Fuels the Volatility of Electricity Prices?

Jeremy Lin, Alessio Saretto and Anastasia Shcherbakova

2407: The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

2406: Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S

Anton Cheremukhin, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria and Antonella Tutino

2405: Do Bill Shocks Induce Energy Efficiency Investments?

Corey Lang, Kevin Nakolan, David Rapson and Reid Taylor

2404: When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2403: Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter

2402: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Jesus Cañas, Aparna Jayashankar, Emily Kerr and Diego Morales-Burnett

2401: The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices

Lutz Kilian, David Rapson and Burkhard Schipper

2316: A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

2315: Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl and Josh Younger

2314: Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market

Michael Plante

2313: Marriage and Work Among Prime-Age Men

Adam Blandin, John Jones and Fang Yang

2312: Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2311: High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali Ozdagli

2310: How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises

Lutz Kilian

2309: Global Transportation Decarbonization

Erich Muehlegger and David Rapson

2308: Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy

Chiara Scotti

2307: Complementary Currencies and Liquidity: The Case of Coca-Base Money

Cristian Frasser and Lucie Lebeau

2306: Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession

Michael Bordo and John Duca

2305: The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

2304: Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter

2303: Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies

Andrea Gamba and Alessio Saretto

2302: State-Dependent Local Projections

Silvia Goncalves, Ana María Herrera, Lutz Kilian and Elena Pesavento

2301: Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2224: A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2223: Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter

2222: Why Has U.S. Stock Ownership Doubled Since the Early 1980s? Equity Participation Over the Past Half Century

John Duca and Mark Walker

2221: The Dual Beveridge Curve

Anton Cheremukhin and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

2220: The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification

James Bushnell and David Rapson

2219: Nonlinear Budget Set Regressions for the Random Utility Model

Sören Blomquist, Anil Kumar, Che-Yuan Liang and Whitney Newey

2218: Central Bank Digital Currency: Financial Inclusion vs. Disintermediation

Jeremie Banet and Lucie Lebeau

2217: A Rescue or a Trap?—An Analysis of Parent PLUS Student Loans

Wenhua Di, Carla Fletcher and Jeff Webster

2216: Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe

Lei Fang and Fang Yang

2215: Operational Loss Recoveries and the Macroeconomic Environment: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Sector

W Frame, Nika Lazaryan, Ping McLemore and Atanas Mihov

2214: Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No

Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto

2213: Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks

Ricardo Nunes, Ali Ozdagli and Jenny Tang

2212: Uncertainty, Stock Prices and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War

Ali Ozdagli and Jianlin Wang

2211: Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

2210: Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth

Michael Dotsey, Wenli Li and Fang Yang

2209: Audit Partners and Loan Loss Provisioning: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies

Gauri Bhat, Hemang Desai, Christoffer Koch, Erik J. Mayer and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2208: A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors

Daniel Lewis and Karel Mertens