Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could impart enough uncertainty to throw the country into recession.
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively.
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Average hourly wages in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (CPI deflated):
Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.
From Hess and Mott, in Foreign Policy, on stifling further Russian aggression even with Trump on the gates:
From Reuters:
In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press that aired on Sunday, Trump said he did not believe that consumers ultimately pay the price of tariffs, adding “I think they’re beautiful.”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.