In RealClearPolitics, a provocative thesis, from Vikram Maheshri (U. Houston) and Cliff Winston* (Brookings):
Maheshri and Winston: “The U.S.’s Decades Long 2nd Great Depression”
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Trump CEA Nominee: Stephen Miran
From Politico today:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
An Alternative Perspective on PCE Deflator Inflation: Instantaneous Inflation
PCE deflator below 2%:
“More and more market participants don’t believe the Fed anymore.”
That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues:
Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at 3% basically as the implicit target. Now we’re in for a lot of pain. So the question is just, is this going to be 1920 or is it going to be 1929
“Putin’s Central Banker Angers Russian Elite With Rate Hikes”
Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.”
Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on the Russian Central Bank’s interest rate decision… nothing happened?
Guest Contribution: “Trump threatens tariffs against a BRICs chimera”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Business Cycle Indicators for November 2024
Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today:
FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts.