Robert's Stochastic thoughts

One of the policies with the greatest effect on poverty is the ild tax credit (expanded and made fully refundable by the American Reesue Plan). It caused a 44% reduction of child poverty. UNfortunately it was a tempory one year program (approptiate for stimulus bu not for an always needed prgram). It was not renewed and there was a huge increase in poverty

This is a hugely important policy issue (currently totally impossible with GOP control of the House). There was not overwhelming support for the program -- fully refundable sounds like welfare. To be blunt, some of the money went to African Americans. I think there is a rhetiral trick which might maybe even work. I think the history of generoud child credits suggests that fighting poverty was not the only objective. There was also the goal of increasing natality, often frankly aimed at producing footsoldiers for the next war. The aim was to create incentives to make babies.The concern was low fertility not (just) high child poverty.

I think a case for an expanded child tax credit can be made which might convince some natalist natavist nationalist Americans who are alarmed that imigration will be necessary to have people to pay the payrol tax to support boomers. The arbument is that native born Americans are dying off with fertility below the replacement rate. In 2022 it was1.67 well below the replacement rate of 2.1 In this the USA has joined other rich countries (which are notably more generous with children that the USA).

Logically this should terrify the numerouse xenophabic nationalists who now oppose the expanded child tax credit. Logically they should support incenI type,tives for US citizen adullts to make babies. "Logically" hah, they do not use this "logic" of which I type. But hey it's worth a try