[go: up one dir, main page]

create a website
Modeling and Forecasting Short-term Interest Rates: The Benefits of Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging. (2010). Medeiros, Marcelo ; Audrino, Francesco.
In: Textos para discussão.
RePEc:rio:texdis:570.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Cited: 6

Citations received by this document

Cites: 35

References cited by this document

Cocites: 50

Documents which have cited the same bibliography

Coauthors: 0

Authors who have wrote about the same topic

Citations

Citations received by this document

  1. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High Frequency Information. (2014). Lee, Tae Hwy ; Huang, Huiyu .
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201409.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  2. Bagging Constrained Equity Premium Predictors. (2013). Medeiros, Marcelo ; Lee, Tae Hwy ; Hillebrand, Eric.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201421.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  3. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High-Frequency Information. (2013). Lee, Tae Hwy ; Huang, Huiyu .
    In: Econometrics.
    RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:127-140:d:26621.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  4. Let´s do it again: bagging equity premium predictors. (2012). Medeiros, Marcelo ; Lee, Tae Hwy ; Hillebrand, Eric.
    In: Textos para discussão.
    RePEc:rio:texdis:604.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  5. Lets Do It Again: Bagging Equity Premium Predictors. (2012). Medeiros, Marcelo ; Lee, Tae Hwy ; Hillebrand, Eric.
    In: CREATES Research Papers.
    RePEc:aah:create:2012-41.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

References

References cited by this document

  1. Ang, A. and Piazzesi, M. (2003), A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of the term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 745–787.

  2. Ang, A., Dong, S. and Piazzesi, M. (2007). No-arbitrage Taylor rules. Working Paper, University of Chicago.

  3. Audrino, F. (2006). Tree-structured multiple regimes in interest rates. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 24(3), 338–353.

  4. Audrino, F. and B uhlmann, P. (2001). Tree-structured GARCH models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 63, 727–744.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  5. Audrino, F. and De Giorgi, E. (2007). Beta regimes for the yield curve. Journal of Financial Econometrics 5 (3), 456–490.

  6. Bansal, R. and Zhou, H. (2002). Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts.

  7. Bansal, R., Tauchen, G., and Zhou, H. (2004). Regime shifts, risk premiums in the term structure, and the business cycle. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22 (4), 396-409.

  8. Berk, R.A. (2008). Statistical learning from a regression perspective, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, New York.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  9. Breiman, L. (1996). Bagging predictors. Machine Learning 36, 105–139. B
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  10. da Rosa, J., Veiga, A. and Medeiros, M.C. (2008). Tree-structured smooth transition regression models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 52, 2469-2488.

  11. Davies, R.B. (1977). Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 64, 247-254.

  12. Davies, R.B. (1987). Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 74, 33-43.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  13. Diebold, F.X. and Mariano, R.S. (1995), Comparing predictive accuracy, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13, 253–263.

  14. Diebold, F.X., Rudebusch, G.D., and Aruoba, S.B. (2006). The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach. Journal of Econometrics 131, 309–338.

  15. Francq, C. and Zako ıan J.-M. (2004). Maximum likelihood estimation of pure GARCH and ARMA-GARCH Processes. Bernoulli 10, 605-637.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  16. Gray, S.F. (1996), Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regimeswitching process. Journal of Financial Economics 42, 27–62.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  17. Hansen, A.T. and Poulsen, R. (2000), A simple regime switching term structure model. Finance and Stochastics 4, 409–429.

  18. Hansen, P. R. (2005). A test for superior predictive ability. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 23, 365–380.

  19. Hastie T., Tibshirani, R. and, Friedman, J. (2001). The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference and prediction. Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, Canada.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  20. Hillebrand, E., and Medeiros, M.C. (2007). Forecasting realized volatility models: the benefits of bagging and nonlinear specifications. Working paper series 547, PUC-Rio (Brazil).

  21. Inoue, A., and Kilian, L. (2004). Bagging time series models. Discussion paper 4333, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

  22. Inoue, A., and Kilian, L. (2008). How useful is bagging in forecasting time series? A case study of US CPI inflation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, 511–522. K

  23. Ling, S. and McAleer, M. (2003). Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model. Econometric Theory 19, 280–310.

  24. Luukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P. and Ter asvirta, T. (1988). Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive models. Biometrika 75, 491-499.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  25. Medeiros, M., and Veiga, A. (2009). Modeling multiple regimes in financial volatility with a flexible coefficient GARCH(1,1) model. Econometric Theory 25, 117–161.

  26. Medeiros, M., Ter asvirta, T. and Rech, G. (2006). Building neural network models for time series: A Statistical Approach. Journal of Forecasting 25, 49-75.

  27. Rudebusch, G.D. and Wu, T. (2004). A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy. Forthcoming in Economic Journal.

  28. Stout, W.F. (1974). Almost Sure Convergence. Academic Press, New York.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  29. Summary statistics of data Central moments Autocorrelations Mean Stdev Skew Kurt Lag 1 Lag 2 Lag 3 1 mth rates 5.2462 2.6496 1.1198 4.9472 0.9652 0.9376 0.9120 1 mth changes 0.0023 0.6953 1.0930 16.721-0.1028-0.0361-0.0589 60 mth rates 6.6416 2.5365 0.9179 3.5773 0.9878 0.9739 0.9615 Spread 1.3944 1.1878 0.0353 3.8250 0.8449 0.7607 0.6774 CPI 4.0881 2.7835 1.3625 4.5441 0.9902 0.9761 0.9606 PPI 3.5130 4.4441 1.0462 4.5846 0.9761 0.9449 0.9159 HELP 83.169 25.369 0.1720 2.1040 0.9892 0.9786 0.9653 IP 3.0453 4.3952 0.7951 3.9041 0.9684 0.9178 0.8537 UE 1.3869 15.616 1.0880 4.2022 0.9550 0.9149 0.8566 GDP 6.8332 2.7445 0.0191 3.3684 0.9661 0.9324 0.8986
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  30. Ter asvirta, T. (1994). Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 208– 218.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  31. uhlmann, P. and Yu, B. (2002). Analyzing bagging. Annals of Statistics 30, 927– 961.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  32. unsch, H. R. (1989). The jackknife and the bootstrap for general stationary observations.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  33. Van Dijk, D., Ter asvirta, T. and Franses, P. (2002). Smooth transition autoregressive models A survey of recent developments. Econometric Reviews 21, 1-47.

  34. White, H. (1994). Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.

  35. Wooldridge, J.M. (1990). A Unified approach to Robust, regression-based specification tests. Econometric Theory 6, 17-43.

Cocites

Documents in RePEc which have cited the same bibliography

  1. Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors. (2014). Pegoraro, Fulvio ; SIEGEL, A. F. ; Pezzoli, Tiozzo L..
    In: Working papers.
    RePEc:bfr:banfra:490.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  2. Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models. (2014). Fontaine, Jean-Sebastien ; Feunou, Bruno.
    In: Staff Working Papers.
    RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-13.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  3. The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union. (2010). Salotti, Simone ; Marattin, Luigi.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:bol:bodewp:695.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  4. Challenges in macro-finance modeling. (2008). Kim, Don.
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-06.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  5. Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model. (2008). Swanson, Eric ; Rudebusch, Glenn.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-25.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  6. Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters. (2007). van der Wel, Michel ; Koopman, Siem Jan ; Max I. P. Mallee, .
    In: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070095.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  7. Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information. (2007). van Dijk, Dick ; Ravazzolo, Francesco ; De Pooter, Michiel.
    In: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070028.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  8. Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information. (2007). van Dijk, Dick ; Ravazzolo, Francesco ; De Pooter, Michiel.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:2512.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  9. The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models. (2007). Rudebusch, Glenn ; Diebold, Francis ; Christensen, Jens ; Jens H. E. Christensen, .
    In: PIER Working Paper Archive.
    RePEc:pen:papers:07-029.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  10. The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules. (2007). Taylor, John ; Smith, Josephine.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13635.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  11. The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models. (2007). Rudebusch, Glenn ; Diebold, Francis ; Christensen, Jens ; Jens H. E. Christensen, .
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13611.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  12. Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach. (2007). Yue, Vivian ; Diebold, Francis ; Li, Canlin.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13588.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  13. No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules. (2007). Piazzesi, Monika ; Ang, Andrew ; Dong, Sen .
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13448.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  14. Cracking the Conundrum. (2007). Wright, Jonathan ; Backus, David.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13419.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  15. Mortgage Timing. (2007). Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn ; koijen, ralph ; Van Hemert, Otto ; Ralph S. J Koijen, .
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13361.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  16. Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors. (2007). Stambaugh, Robert ; Pastor, Lubos.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12814.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  17. Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market. (2007). Spencer, Peter.
    In: Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006.
    RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:73.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  18. Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions vs. Large Information Set. (2007). Sala, Luca ; Niu, Linlin ; Favero, Carlo.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:igi:igierp:318.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  19. Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach. (2007). Guidolin, Massimo ; Timmerman, Allan.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-059.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  20. Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models. (2007). Zin, Stanley ; Palomino, Francisco ; Hollifield, Burton ; Gallmeyer, Michael.
    In: Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:305-326:n:v.89no.4.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  21. Commentary on Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium. (2007). Cochrane, John.
    In: Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:271-282:n:v.89no.4.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  22. Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium. (2007). Swanson, Eric ; Rudebusch, Glenn ; Sack, Brian P..
    In: Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:241-270:n:v.89no.4.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  23. What does the yield curve tell us about the Federal Reserves implicit inflation target?. (2007). Doh, Taeyoung.
    In: Research Working Paper.
    RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp07-10.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  24. On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads. (2007). Thomson, James ; C. N. V. Krishnan, ; Ritchken, Peter H..
    In: Working Papers (Old Series).
    RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0705.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  25. The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model. (2007). Vicente, José Valentim ; Almeida, Caio.
    In: FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE).
    RePEc:fgv:epgewp:657.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  26. Inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates. (2007). Tristani, Oreste ; Hördahl, Peter ; Hordahl, Peter.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007734.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  27. Term Structure Forecasting: No-Arbitrage Restrictions vs Large Information Set. (2007). Sala, Luca ; Niu, Linlin ; Favero, Carlo.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6206.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  28. An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve. (2007). Peacock, Chris ; Lildholdt, Peter ; Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos .
    In: Bank of England working papers.
    RePEc:boe:boeewp:322.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  29. Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy. (2007). Tinsley, Peter ; Kozicki, Sharon.
    In: Staff Working Papers.
    RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-30.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  30. A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate. (2007). Yang, Jun ; Chabi-Yo, Fousseni.
    In: Staff Working Papers.
    RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-21.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  31. IMPACT OF MACRO SHOCKS ON SOVEREIGN DEFAULT PROBABILITIES. (2007). Matsumura, Marco S..
    In: Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting].
    RePEc:anp:en2007:060.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  32. The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules. (2006). Vázquez, Jesús ; Maria-Dolores, Ramón.
    In: Computing in Economics and Finance 2006.
    RePEc:sce:scecfa:6.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  33. The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics. (2006). Vestin, David ; Tristani, Oreste ; Hrdahl, Peter.
    In: Computing in Economics and Finance 2006.
    RePEc:sce:scecfa:203.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  34. Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve. (2006). Holly, Sean ; Chadha, Jagjit.
    In: Computing in Economics and Finance 2006.
    RePEc:sce:scecfa:105.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  35. A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources, and Generalized Duration. (2006). Diebold, Francis ; Li, Canlin ; Ji, Lei .
    In: PIER Working Paper Archive.
    RePEc:pen:papers:06-017.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  36. A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy. (2006). Maes, Konstantijn ; Lyrio, Marco ; Dewachter, Hans.
    In: Journal of Applied Econometrics.
    RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:4:p:439-462.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  37. Extracting inflation expectations from the term structure: the Fisher equation in a multivariate SDF framework. (2006). Wickens, Michael ; Balfoussia, Hiona.
    In: International Journal of Finance & Economics.
    RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:261-277.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  38. How professional forecasters view shocks to GDP. (2006). Krane, Spencer.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-06-19.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  39. Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium. (2006). Swanson, Eric ; Rudebusch, Glenn ; Sack, Brian P..
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-46.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  40. The bond yield conundrum from a macro-finance perspective. (2006). Wu, Tao ; Swanson, Eric ; Rudebusch, Glenn.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-16.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  41. A factor risk model with reference returns for the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets. (2006). Nyholm, Ken ; Coche, Joachim ; Bernadell, Carlos.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006641.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  42. New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure. (2006). Moreno, Antonio ; Cho, Seonghoon ; Bekaert, Geert.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5956.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  43. Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve: An assessment of the Fit. (2006). Holly, Sean ; Chadha, Jagjit.
    In: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.
    RePEc:cam:camdae:0640.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  44. Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioners Perspective. (2006). Bolder, David.
    In: Staff Working Papers.
    RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-48.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  45. Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?. (2006). Diez de los Rios, Antonio.
    In: Staff Working Papers.
    RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-27.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  46. The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields. (2005). Valente, Giorgio ; Thornton, Daniel ; Sarno, Lucio.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5259.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  47. Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates. (2004). Fendel, Ralf.
    In: Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies.
    RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2290.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  48. What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?. (2004). Wei, Min ; Piazzesi, Monika ; Ang, Andrew ; Piazessi, Monika.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10672.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  49. Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model. (2004). Ichiue, Hibiki.
    In: Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings.
    RePEc:ecm:feam04:581.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  50. Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility. (2004). Smith, Daniel ; Parignon, Christophe.
    In: Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings.
    RePEc:ecm:ausm04:307.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Coauthors

Authors registered in RePEc who have wrote about the same topic

Report date: 2024-12-23 13:46:51 || Missing content? Let us know

CitEc is a RePEc service, providing citation data for Economics since 2001. Sponsored by INOMICS. Last updated October, 6 2023. Contact: CitEc Team.