- 1.1.1 Step 1: Create bridges for each NAICS change There are minor changes in NAICS codes in 2002 and 2007. This step creates an employmentweighted bridge for each NAICS cell. We download bridges from the Census. 1 The SICNAICS mapping will always be problematic, but the NAICS changes are relatively minor and the weighted mappings seem to work well.
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- 1.3 De…nition of Tradable Industries, Non-tradable Industries and Construction Sector We follow Mian and Su… (2015) de…nition of tradable and non-tradable sectors. Here we should emphasize that there will be man y industries that are not classied neither as a tradable industry nor as a non-tradable.
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- Earnings Growth Table 4 Car Sales The table reports coefficient estimates of weighted least square regressions relating car sales to the unemployment insurance generosity and Bartik shock using as weights the population in 2000. The number of cars sold in each county is provided by Polk, and the full sample includes the period 2001-2011. In all columns the dependent variable is the car sales. Column 1 shows the effects without any control, while in Column 2 we include county and year fixed effects. In Columns 3 we control for the interaction between the Bartik shock and all the controls in Table 2, such as the fraction of employees in construction, manufacturing, government (which includes federal, military, state and local government), self-employed and services industries as well as the democratic share and the fraction of individuals with high-school and college degrees. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. Asterisks denote significance levels (***=1%, **=5%, *=10%).
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- Figure SA.2 Persistence of UI Generosity This graph shows the correlation between the average replacement rate in the periods 2000-2005 and 1990-1995 for all counties weighted by population.
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- Figure SA.3 UI Generosity: Max Benefit/Average Wage This graph shows the ratio of the maximum unemployment insurance weekly benefit and the average weekly wage as measured in 2000 for all counties, with darker regions having more generous UI benefits.
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- Figure SA.4 Persistence of UI Generosity This graph shows the correlation between the unemployment insurance generosity in 2000 and in 2010 for all the counties weighted by population.
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- Raw CBP data are downloaded from: http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/download/ If the selected level of geography is a Commuting Zone (CZ), this step also recodes county FIPS codes to their 2000 FIPS membership, for matching with the county-CZ bridge downloaded from http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/commuting-zones-and-labor-market-areas.aspx We replace any missing Geography X Industry X Year cell with a 0. 1.1.4 Step5 - Construct Bartik Shock This step constructs the Bartik shocks for each of the two datasets with dierent balance assumptions. The Bartik shock is de…ned as: bi;t = X k i;k; [( i;k;t i;k;t 1)= i;k;t 1] Where: i;k; is the employment share of industry k in geography i, i;k;t is the national employment share of industry k excluding geography i. is the base year, described in more detail below. First, we construct employment growth rates by industry, leaving out employment in the geography (the term in square brackets above).
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Romer, C. D. and D. H. Romer (2014). Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Eects of Social Security Bene…t Increases, 1952– 1991.
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- Serrato, J. C. S. and P. Wingender (2010b). Estimating local …scal multipliers. University of California at Berkeley, mimeo.
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- Solon, G. (1985). Work incentive eects of taxing unemployment bene…ts. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 295– 306.
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- There was also a change in NAICS codes in 2012, but the Census Core Statistics bridge will not be released until June 2016.2 1.1.2 Step3. Combine bridges This step combines all the weighted bridges constructed above: NAICS1997 to NAICS 2002, and NAICS2002 to NAICS2007. 1.1.3 Step 4. Load and clean CBP data This step loads and cleans the raw County Business Patterns (CBP) data.3 Many smaller counties and industries have employment data that are suppressed by the Census Bureau for privacy reasons. In these cases, we use the number of establishments multiplied by the midpoint of the number of employees in each size class. 1 http://fact…nder.census.gov/ (IDs: EC0700CBDG1, EC0700CBDG2, EC0200CBDG1, EC0200CBDG2). 2 See here for an update: http://www.census.gov/econ/census/help/sector/core_business_statistics_series.html 3
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Tolbert, C. M. and M. Sizer (1996). US commuting zones and labor market areas: A 1990 update.
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- We pool samples from survey years 1997-2001 (which actually refer to calendar years 1996-2000 since the survey is retrospective) to get reasonable sample sizes at the state level and calculate the mean replacement ratio and takeup rate by state. 4
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