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The Ways the Cookie Crumbles: Education and the Margins of Cyclical Adjustment in the Labor Market. (2021). Doniger, Cynthia.
In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-19.

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  1. A Data A.1 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 The canonical papers studying the UCL and NHW utilize the 1979 cohort of the NLSY (the NLSY79). The data are an unbalanced panel of workers surveyed yearly from 1979 to 1994 and every other year thereafter. Respondents were aged 14 to 21 at the date of the initial survey. Following Kudlyak (2014) and Basu and House (2016), I restrict the sample to males. This sample selection results in 54,543 observations of whom 16, 64, and 20 percent had less than a high school education, a high school education or some college, or a bachelors degree or more, respectively. Although the sample is not representative of the U.S. population, yearly cross-sectional sampling weights render the sample comparable with each year’s population up to the natural aging of the sample.
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  2. Aaronson, S. R., M. C. Daly, W. Wascher, and D. W. Wilcox (2019). Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most From a Strong Economy? Forthcoming: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
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  27. Handling the NLSY79 tenure data as in Kudlyak (2014) and Basu and House (2016) and including the same controls, the method proposed here replicates the headline findings of those papers almost exactly. For the sample considered by Kudlyak (2014), 1978-97, I obtain a cyclical sensitivity of the UCL to the unemployment rate of −5.61 (1.08) while Kudlyak reports −5.20 (0.70), standard errors are in parentheses. Kudlyak reports standard errors from a bootstrapped method that presumably resamples the NSLY microdata but does not block bootstrap the time-series variation. Such a strategy explains the very small standard error. Meanwhile, Basu and House (2016) report cyclical sensitivities to deviations from the HP-filtered unemployment rate and log real GDP over the horizon 1978-2006 of −5.82(2.08) and 3.12 (1.35), respectively. Basu and House (2016) reports Newey-West standard errors.
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  28. I obtain −6.42 (1.14) and 2.98 (0.53). Coding the start date of employment as I do in this paper results in slightly lower point estimates. Note, the measurement error induced by the Kudlyak (2014) and Basu and House (2016) construction of the start dates is non-classical.
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