Ang, A. and Piazzesi, M. (2003), A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of the term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 745-787.
Ang, A., Dong, S. and Piazzesi, M. (2007). No-arbitrage Taylor rules. Working Paper, University of Chicago.
Audrino, F. (2006). Tree-structured multiple regimes in interest rates. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 24(3), 338-353.
- Audrino, F. and Buhlmann, P. (2001). Tree-structured GARCH models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 63, 727-744.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Audrino, F. and De Giorgi, E. (2007). Beta regimes for the yield curve. Journal of Financial Econometrics 5 (3), 456–490.
Bansal, R. and Zhou, H. (2002). Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts. Journal of Finance 57 (5), 1997–2043.
Bansal, R., Tauchen, G., and Zhou, H. (2004). Regime shifts, risk premiums in the term structure, and the business cycle. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22 (4), 396-409.
- Breiman, L. (1996). Bagging predictors. Machine Learning 36, 105–139.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Buhlmann, P., and Yu, B. (2002). Analyzing bagging. Annals of Statistics 30, 927–961.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
da Rosa, J., Veiga, A. and Medeiros, M.C. (2008). Tree-structured smooth transition regression models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 52, 24692488.
- Davies, R.B. (1977). Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 64, 247254.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Davies, R.B. (1987). Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 74, 3343.
Diebold, F.X., Rudebusch, G.D., and Aruoba, S.B. (2006). The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach. Journal of Econometrics 131, 309-338.
- Francq, C. and Zakoıan J.-M. (2004). Maximum likelihood estimation of pure GARCH and ARMA-GARCH Processes. Bernoulli 10, 605637.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Gray, S.F. (1996), Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regimeswitching process. Journal of Financial Economics 42, 27-62.
Hansen, A.T. and Poulsen, R. (2000), A simple regime switching term structure model. Finance and Stochastics 4, 409-429.
Hansen, P. R. (2005). A test for superior predictive ability. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 23, 365–380.
- Hastie T., Tibshirani, R. and, Friedman, J. (2001). The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference and prediction. Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, Canada.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hillebrand, E., and Medeiros, M.C. (2007). Forecasting realized volatility models: the beneï¬ts of bagging and nonlinear speciï¬cations. Working paper series 547, PUC-Rio (Brazil).
Inoue, A., and Kilian, L. (2004). Bagging time series models. Discussion paper 4333, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Inoue, A., and Kilian, L. (2005). How useful is bagging in forecasting time series? A case study of US CPI inflation. Dicussion paper 5304, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
- Kunsch, H. R. (1989). The jackknife and the bootstrap for general stationary observations.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Ling, S. and McAleer, M. (2003). Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model. Econometric Theory 19, 280-310.
- Medeiros, M., and Veiga, A. (2008). Modeling multiple regimes in ï¬nancial volatility with a flexible coefficient GARCH(1,1) model. Forthcoming in Econometric Theory.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Medeiros, M., da Rosa, J. and Veiga, A. (2005). Tree-Structured smooth transition regression models for time-series and cross-section data. Discussion paper 510, Pontiï¬cal Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Department of Economics.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Medeiros, M., Terasvirta, T. and Rech, G. (2006). Building neural network models for time series: A Statistical Approach. Journal of Forecasting 25, 4975.
- R., Saikkonen, P. and Terasvirta, T. (1988). Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive models. Biometrika 75, 491499.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Rudebusch, G.D. and Wu, T. (2004). A macro-ï¬nance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy. Forthcoming in Economic Journal.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Stout, W.F. (1974). Almost Sure Convergence. Academic Press, New York.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Summary statistics of data Central moments Autocorrelations Mean Stdev Skew Kurt Lag 1 Lag 2 Lag 3 1 mth rates 5.2462 2.6496 1.1198 4.9472 0.9652 0.9376 0.9120 1 mth changes 0.0023 0.6953 1.0930 16.721-0.1028-0.0361-0.0589 60 mth rates 6.6416 2.5365 0.9179 3.5773 0.9878 0.9739 0.9615 Spread 1.3944 1.1878 0.0353 3.8250 0.8449 0.7607 0.6774 CPI 4.0881 2.7835 1.3625 4.5441 0.9902 0.9761 0.9606 PPI 3.5130 4.4441 1.0462 4.5846 0.9761 0.9449 0.9159 HELP 83.169 25.369 0.1720 2.1040 0.9892 0.9786 0.9653 IP 3.0453 4.3952 0.7951 3.9041 0.9684 0.9178 0.8537 UE 1.3869 15.616 1.0880 4.2022 0.9550 0.9149 0.8566 GDP 6.8332 2.7445 0.0191 3.3684 0.9661 0.9324 0.8986
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Terasvirta, T. (1994). Speciï¬cation, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 208218.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Van Dijk, D., Terasvirta, T. and Franses, P. (2002). Smooth transition autoregressive models A survey of recent developments. Econometric Reviews 21, 147.
- White, H. (1994). Estimation, Inference and Speciï¬cation Analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Wooldridge, J.M. (1990). A Uniï¬ed approach to Robust, regression-based speciï¬cation tests.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now