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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Whelsy Boungou (Psb research lab (PSB) - PSB - Paris School of Business - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université); Alhonita Yatié (UCO - Université Catholique de l'Ouest) |
| Abstract: | This article mainly investigates whether the war in Ukraine-Russia induces uncertainties and how this affects the returns of world stock market indices and commodity prices. To do so, we use the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), 96 stock market indices and the prices of 67 commodities worldwide over the period from January 2022 to April 2023. Our empirical results show that the war between Ukraine and Russia increases uncertainties, and which negatively affect the performance of global financial markets and lead to higher commodity prices. These negative shocks tend to be smaller the longer the war persists. We also observe that responses to war-induced uncertainties are stronger in Europe and America. Overall, we provide unique evidence of the impact of war on uncertainties and how this is transmitted to stock market performance and commodity prices. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine-Russia war, Uncertainty, Stock index |
| Date: | 2024–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04746052 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | Si l’année 2021 fut marquée, dans une situation de rattrapage économique post-Covid, par la progression des cours de la quasi-totalité des matières premières agricoles, minérales ou énergétiques, tel ne fut pas le cas pour 2022, caractérisée, au contraire, par une grande hétérogénéité de trajectoires. Le déclenchement de la guerre en Ukraine a certes conduit à une élévation forte de nombreux produits de base en raison du poids de la Russie, de l’Ukraine voire du Belarus, dans la production mondiale. Néanmoins, ce sont l’imposition, ou non, de sanctions commerciales et financières envers les entreprises exportatrices russes ainsi que la mise en œuvre de mesures de représailles par Moscou qui ont fondamentalement déterminé la trajectoire haussière ou baissière des prix. Tout ne s’expliquait cependant pas par la situation géopolitique, la macroéconomie mondiale reprenant quelque peu ses droits au second semestre 2022. L’appréciation du dollar sur une majeure partie de l’année a ainsi pesé sur les prix, tout comme les incertitudes économiques et sanitaires en Chine et les doutes relatifs à la politique zéro-Covid décrétée par Pékin jusqu’en décembre. Alors que le conflit entre la Russie et l’Ukraine devrait perdurer, ces mêmes variables détermineront en large part la physionomie des marchés en 2023 dans une situation macroéconomique déprimée. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb_05-23 |
| By: | Brunninger, Lukas; Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Gugler, Klaus; Heim, Sven |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and rising gas prices, the “gas Price brake” was implemented in Germany. We employ a difference-in-differences Approach and analyze data on offered gas contracts from two countries with comparable gas markets, where one country (Germany) has implemented the gas price brake and the other (Austria) has not. Our findings support the theoretical prediction, indicating that the gas price brake led to an increase in total annual gas costs in Germany. This increase is entirely attributable to incumbents increasing counterfactual gas prices by up to 90%. Non-incumbents do not ’milk‘ the brake. |
| Keywords: | Energy Policy; Gas Price Brake; Moral Hazard; Incumbents |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:68240794 |
| By: | Jan Fidrmuc; Maksym Obrizan; Piotr Stanek |
| Abstract: | We analyze the wellbeing socio-economic characteristics of Ukrainian refugees in Poland and compare them with their co-nationals who remained in Ukraine. Specifically, we identify the determinants of happiness, trust and self-declared health, and the patterns of self-selection into becoming a refugee in Poland. We focus on how having experienced violence in the course of the current conflict affects socio-economic outcomes of refugees and stayers. We find that the refugees are less well-off both economically and in terms of their general wellbeing (happiness). Having experienced violence does not seem to compel Ukrainians to become refugees, suggesting that they move preemptively, due to the threat of violence, and not after having experienced it. Having suffered violence, however, has a lasting adverse impact on the happiness, trust and health of Ukrainians in Poland and Ukraine alike. |
| Keywords: | refugees, violence, happiness, trust, health, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F22 F51 I10 I30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11393 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Les fluctuations que connaissent les marchés de l'énergie depuis le début de la pandémie de la Covid-19 en 2019/2020 se sont prolongées, avec une incertitude sans précédent, sur l'approvisionnement énergétique mondial, qui s'est développée au cours de 2022 à la suite de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, dans un contexte d'affaiblissement de la macroéconomie et d'inflation élevée. Alors que certains voyaient en ce contexte un risque de ralentissement de la transition énergétique, d’autres y ont vu une opportunité pour s’affranchir des énergies fossiles et accélérer le développement des technologies propres. Ce Policy Brief explore cinq tendances récentes qui sont susceptibles de façonner la transformation du système énergétique en 2023 et met l’accent sur les enjeux des technologies propres qui seront nécessaires pour accélérer la transition vers un avenir plus vert. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb_04_23 |
| By: | Panayotis G. Papaioannou; George P. Papaioannou; George Evangelidis; George Gavalakis |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of several critical events associated with the Russo Ukrainian war, started officially on 24 February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on ten European electricity markets, two natural gas markets (the European reference trading hub TTF and N.Y. NGNMX market) and how these markets interact to each other and with USDRUB exchange rate, a financial market. We analyze the reactions of these markets, manifested as breakpoints attributed to these critical events, and their interaction, by using a set of three tools that can shed light on different aspects of this complex situation. We combine the concepts of market efficiency, measured by quantifying the Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) via rolling Hurst exponent, with structural breakpoints occurred in the time series of gas, electricity and financial markets, the detection of which is possible by using a Bayesian ensemble approach, the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonal change and Trend (BEAST), a powerful tool that can effectively detect structural breakpoints, trends, seasonalities and sudden abrupt changes in time series. The results show that the analyzed markets have exhibited different modes of reactions to the critical events, both in respect of number, nature, and time of occurrence (leading, lagging, concurrent with dates of critical events) of breakpoints as well as of the dynamic behavior of their trend components. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.07224 |
| By: | Lukas Brunninger (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt (University of Münster and Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods); Klaus Gugler (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Sven Heim (Mines Paris – PSL, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research Mannheim and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and rising gas prices, the “gas Price brake” was implemented in Germany. We employ a difference-in-differences Approach and analyze data on offered gas contracts from two countries with comparable gas markets, where one country (Germany) has implemented the gas price brake and the other (Austria) has not. Our findings support the theoretical prediction, indicating that the gas price brake led to an increase in total annual gas costs in Germany. This increase is entirely attributable to incumbents increasing counterfactual gas prices by up to 90%. Non-incumbents do not ’milk‘ the brake. |
| Keywords: | Energy Policy, Gas Price Brake, Moral Hazard, Incumbents |
| JEL: | D04 Q40 Q48 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp372 |
| By: | Ajayi, Victor (Energy Policy Research Centre, University of Cambridge); Andrew Burlinson, Andrew (University of Sheffield); Giulietti, Monica (Nottingham University Business School); Waterson, Michael (University of Warwick & CAGE research centre) |
| Abstract: | In April 2022, consumers in Great Britain (GB) witnessed a 54% increase in the energy price cap, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, which sent wholesale gas prices spiralling across Europe. We leverage high-frequency data collected by the Smart Energy Research Lab, a representative panel containing daily gas and electricity data for around 13, 000 households in Great Britain between January 2021 and December 2023 to investigate the implications. We exploit several datasets linked to the panel data which include time-varying and cross-sectional information. We rely on two price shocks : 1) in October 2021 a wave of energy retail suppliers leaving the industry. At this time over two million consumers on fixed contracts were forced to join a new supplier and pay a variable tariff, and 2) these consumers were exposed to a second price shock caused by the Ukraine-Russia conflict which fed through April 2022’s energy price cap. Exploiting this pseudo-natural experiment, we use a difference-in-difference framework to estimate average treatment effects on this group of consumers and find that they would have consumed an additional 10 percentage points more electricity and 16 percentage points more gas had their prices remained fixed. These estimates are robust to a battery of robustness checks and point towards a significant loss in welfare for consumers on variable tariffs in the early stages of the energy price crisis |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences ; energy consumption ; energy crisis JEL Codes: L94 ; E31 ; D12 ; I19 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1523 |
| By: | Inna S. Lola (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dmitry Asoskov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic activity in the context of Russia. In an era characterized by global economic volatility and geopolitical shifts, understanding the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact on overall economic performance is of paramount importance. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset based on the results of business tendency surveys in Russia, spanning the period from 2009 to the first half of 2024. Given the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic outcomes, the central research question of this study is: “Can uncertainty indicators predict business activity in Russia or not?”. To address this question, we compared two alternative approaches to calculating business uncertainty: the ex-ante approach, which uses the business community's assessments of future business trends to measure uncertainty as a measure of the dispersion of opinions expressed, and the ex-post approach, which uses entrepreneurial assessments of both future and current trends to determine business uncertainty as the degree of deviation of entrepreneurial expectations from the real picture. National indicators and sectoral indicators were calculated for the mining and quarrying industry, manufacturing industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and services. For most of the industries under consideration (except for the construction and service sector) and at the national level, the specifications of vector autoregression models that were effective for forecasting real indicators of economic activity, characterized by lower forecast errors compared to standard autoregressive models, were built. According to the results obtained, at the national level, when forecasting GDP, clear preference should be given to the ex-post indicator. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty, business tendency survey, Russia, forecasting. |
| JEL: | C82 D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:128sti2024 |
| By: | Anton Galeev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses Yuli Zhukovsky’s 1864 article “Smithian Direction and Positivism in Economics”, one of the first research in methodology of political economy in Russia. Zhukovsky contrasts the abstract theorising of classical economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo with the empiricism of his contemporaries like Henry Macleod. Zhukovsky advocates for a deductive, universal approach in economic theory, emphasising the importance of abstract models to explain economic phenomena. His interpretation of Smith aligns with modern views on classical political economy, focusing on the formation of theoretical systems from empirical facts. |
| Keywords: | classical political economy, economic methodology, Adam Smith, Yuli Zhukovsky, deduction, abstraction |
| JEL: | B12 B41 B31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:270/ec/2024 |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | Heightened geopolitical rivalry has greatly complicated the challenges facing the Global South. Countries identifying with the Global South now have to deal with the long-standing problem of promoting changes in the current international political and economic system to better serve their development needs, while navigating the geopolitically driven fragmentation of trade and investment flows. Moreover, the strategic approaches that could be adopted to deal with those challenges are influenced by the vague definition of the ‘Global South’ itself. Further complicating the picture is the fact that China and Russia have played very ambiguous roles—siding with developing countries in the desire for change, but representing one side of the geopolitical competition for global influence. Against the backdrop of an ill-defined Global South, developing countries need to examine the various approaches pursued by major countries. This can inform their efforts to calibrate an appropriate strategy for themselves, depending on their specific circumstances. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_07_24 |
| By: | Wagner, Christian (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Während der letzten Jahre hat die Indische Union eine deutliche Aufwertung in der deutschen und europäischen Außenpolitik erfahren. Gefördert wurde dieser Prozess durch Indiens wirtschaftliche Dynamik als am schnellsten wachsende Demokratie und seine geopolitische Rolle als Partner im Indo-Pazifik gegen die hegemonialen Ambitionen Chinas. Für Deutschland ist Indien ein unverzichtbarer, aber zugleich schwieriger Partner. Das Land wird seiner strategischen Autonomie treu bleiben und die sino-amerikanische Rivalität nutzen, um seine eigenen Aufstiegsambitionen voranzutreiben. Trotz des gemeinsamen Bekenntnisses zu einer regelbasierten Ordnung wird es weiterhin Unterschiede bei der Bewertung geopolitischer Krisenherde geben, wie im Fall von Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine. Durch die Abkommen zur Dreieckskooperation sowie zu Migration und Mobilität haben die deutsch-indischen Beziehungen eine neue Qualität erreicht. Die ersten gemeinsamen Militärübungen im Sommer 2024, mit denen sich Indiens langgehegter Wunsch nach engerer rüstungspolitischer Zusammenarbeit erfüllte, werden dazu beitragen, dass sich die bilateralen Beziehungen weiter vertiefen. Da Indien in der deutschen Außenpolitik stetig an Bedeutung gewinnt, ist es notwendig, in der deutschen Wissenschaftslandschaft die Sachkompetenz zu den innen- und außenpolitischen Entwicklungen des Landes erheblich zu verbessern. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:305249 |
| By: | Nisha Taneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanjana Joshi (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanya Dua; Alina Siddiqui |
| Abstract: | The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) has emerged as a crucial alternative route for global trade in the context of recent geopolitical disruptions. With shipping lines through the Red Sea facing rising risk of attacks related to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and the Suez Canal being prone to blockages, the INSTC offers a more efficient and costeffective alternative for transporting goods between India, Russia, and the Central Asian countries. This policy brief examines India's export potential to the INSTC member countries, emphasizing the untapped export opportunities that could be instrumental in achieving India's ambitious target of reaching US$ 2 trillion in exports by 2030. The policy brief also highlights the challenges in fully operationalizing the corridor, including the need for improved inter-modal transfers, enhanced banking and insurance services, and stronger hinterland connectivity. Addressing these challenges and leveraging the INSTC's potential could significantly expand India's trade in the region. |
| Keywords: | INSTC, export potential, shipping disruptions, icrier |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:24 |
| By: | Hamza Mjahed |
| Abstract: | The North Sea has been an important energy hub for many European countries for centuries. It is home to many natural resources, from oil and natural gas, to wind and wave energy, making it a powerhouse of energy production. In recent decades, the North Sea has seen significant investment in energy infrastructure and innovation, allowing many of these resources to be harnessed and used to supply energy to much of Europe. Furthermore, the North Sea has become more important for European energy security in the context of the volatility in global energy markets and European efforts to decouple from Russian fossil fuels. The North Sea is thus bound to play a vital role in the future of European energy security, with a large number of projects set to come online in the coming years, providing a significant boost to energy production. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_09_23 |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Avec un chiffre d’Affaires en hausse de 50 % par rapport à 2022, l’industrie pharmaceutique au Maroc a connu une année record en 2023. Cette étude est consacrée à l’une des trois composantes de ce secteur :la composante industrielle. Elle regroupe 50 Établissements pharmaceutiques industriels (EPI). (Source : la Direction des médicaments et de la pharmacie (DMP). L’analyse de chacun de ces EPI met en évidence un écosystème, amorcé dès 1933 avec la création de Pharma-Cooper. Écosystème constitué, en 2024, d’EPI, en synergie, dont les effectifs vont de quelques dizaines à plusieurs milliers. Écosystème très ouvert aussi à l’international, où 21 EPI sont des filiales marocaines de multinationales étrangères, leaders mondiaux dans leur domaine. En 2024, cet écosystème est particulièrement dynamique, avec un fort potentiel de développement à partir d’un double moteur de croissance : interne et externe. Pôle d’excellence, spécialisédanslaproductiondegénériquesdemoinsenmoinschers, quigénère deséconomies importantes, indispensables à la préservation des équilibres financiers de l’assurance maladie, mais aussi à l’amélioration de la balance commerciale. Pôle confronté de nos jours à un autre défi mis en évidence par la pandémie de la Covid-19 et les conséquences de la guerre Russo- Ukrainienne : la souveraineté sanitaire. En priorisant l’usage des génériques et en diversifiant son offre, ce pôle est-il prêt à relever le défi de la souveraineté sanitaire du Maroc ? |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_37-24 |
| By: | Hisham Aidi |
| Abstract: | Considering the current situation in Burkina Faso, the international media is speaking of institutional weakness and state failure in Africa and the role of international institutions and local non-state actors in providing security and public goods in the Sahel. The discourse of state failure and counter-state sovereignty has a decades-old genealogy, but recent work by African scholars has sought to contest top-down Western labels and categories. African attempts to decolonize social science research began shortly after independence in the 1960s. Yet, lately, scholars like Ugandan sociologist Sylvia Tamale have taken the critique of Western knowledge production in a new direction. As French Special Forces prepare to depart Burkina Faso, commentators have begun speculating that the Russian mercenary group Wagner will be arriving to assist the Burkinabe leader Captain Ibrahima Traore in countering a ten-year Islamist insurgency that has displaced an estimated two million people. 1 Once again, the media is speaking of institutional weakness and state failure in Africa and the role of international institutions and local non-state actors in providing security and public goods in the Sahel. As we show below, the discourse of state failure and the rebel/Jihadi governance model has a decades- old genealogy. However, recent work by African scholars has sought to contest top-down labels and Western categories. African attempts to decolonize social science research began shortly after independence in the 1960s, and scholars like Ugandan sociologist Sylvia Tamale have taken the critique of Western knowledge production in a new direction. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_07_23 |
| By: | Emmanuel Pinto Moreira |
| Abstract: | African countries were severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which quickly drove the continent into its worst recession in fifty years. According to the 2022 African Development Bank African Economic Outlook (AEO), real GDP declined by -1.5% in 2020 compared to growth of 3.3% in 2019. Africa has recovered quickly from the recession, but this has not translated into favorable debt prospects for many countries. To make a challenging situation even worse, the Russia/Ukraine crisis has cast further doubt on prospects for debt sustainability in Africa. The international community has reacted to these events by putting in place a Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). To address debt needs further, the G20 has introduced a Common Framework to facilitate debt relief, including from the private sector. These two initiatives have not proven sufficient to meet Africa’s debt challenge. Africa thus would benefit from the introduction of a financial stability mechanism that would work with countries to put their finances back on a sustainable path and help ensure market access. Section 1 of this paper details Africa’s new wave of debt crises since 2010. Section 2 discusses the new debt resolution framework and its limitations. The paper then concludes by setting out the rationale for a new financial stability mechanism. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_25-23 |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | The Global South features prominently in the context of geopolitical rivalry and efforts by developing countries to change the current international economic and financial architecture. While there are questions about whether some countries—such as China or Russia—should be considered parts of the Global South (GS) , it is obvious that Africa is at the center of the group. Different aspects of Africa—its potential, its reality, and its efforts to realize its potential—embody the challenges and the prospects of the GS in general. More specifically, the difficulties Africa faces, how it will deal with them, its progress or lack of progress, and the changes it would like to see in the current international economic and financial system to help it overcome the obstacles to development, help make clear what the GS is all about. Africa’s desirable action plan constitutes a comprehensive agenda GS countries can rally around. On the other hand, the various fault lines inherent in Africa typify the lack of cohesiveness that has kept the GS from speaking with one voice, able to pull its weight in international fora. Instead, Africa, and similarly the GS, have been viewed by major powers as arenas of competition for influence. As such, how Africa deals with these problems will offer benchmarks to judge how the GS has progressed. In other words, Africa embodies the agenda of the GS; its progress drives that of the GS. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_32_24 |
| By: | Hisham Aidi |
| Abstract: | The global wave of democratic retrenchment has not spared North Africa as seen in the cases of Tunisia and Sudan, where democratic transitions have stalled or regressed into autocracy. How do to explain Tunisia and Sudan’s troubled transitions from authoritarian rule? Both states are attempting to transition from single-party authoritarianism. In both cases, economic crises exacerbated by COVID, the Russian-Ukraine war, and involvement by external actors stymied the fragile transition process. But there are also clear differences in the role of European powers, the strength of political parties and civil society actors, and discourses of national identity. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_69-22 |