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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | elmallah, mariam |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an assessment of the effects of the main trade agreements implemented in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The empirical analysis in this paper is based on a gravity model for a panel of 14 countries (7 South Mediterranean, 4 EU member states in addition to USA and Japan) for the time span 1991 till 2012. The trade agreements of interest are the Pan-Arab Free Trade Agreement (PAFTA), the Agadir Agreement and the Association Agreements (AAs) signed between the EU and the South Mediterranean countries (SMCs) and are considered the main building blocks for the Euro-Med Free Trade Area. Results show a positive and significant effect of both the PAFTA and the Agadir Agreement on the exports of their signatories. Differently, signing the AAs seems to have no significant impact on the exports of the countries on average as well as the exports of the majority of the SMCs in specific. However, there is a positive and significant impact of the AAs on the exports of the EU member states. When analyzing the behavior of the single countries, emerges a positive impact of PAFTA on the exports of Egypt and Morocco, a negative impact on Tunisia and insignificant impact on Algeria and Jordan. The Agadir Agreement benefited both Egypt and Morocco, leaving no significant effects on both Tunisia and Jordan. Finally, signing the AAs had a positive impact on Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, a negative impact on Algeria and Jordan, and insignificant impact on the exports of both Israel and Tunisia. These results imply the success of the intra-regional integration efforts, unlike the outcome of the inter-regional AAs. The current design of the AAs seems to have asymmetric outcome on its signatories. The persistence of this problem can hinder the path towards a mutually beneficial and fully fledged Euro-Med Free Trade Area. |
| Keywords: | Empirical Studies of Trade, Economic Integration |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2014–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57448&r=ara |
| By: | A. F. AYSAN; M. DISLI; H. OZTURK; I. M. TURHAN (-) |
| Abstract: | We look at market discipline in the Islamic deposit market of Turkey for the period after the 2000 crisis. We find support for quantity based disciplining of Islamic banks through the capital ratio. The evidence for price disciplining is, however, less convincing. In addition, we also look at the effect of the deposit insurance reform in which the dual deposit insurance was revised and all banks were put under the same deposit insurance company in December 2005. We observe that the reform increased quantity based disciplining in the Turkish Islamic deposit market. |
| Keywords: | Depositor discipline, Islamic banks |
| JEL: | G23 G28 O52 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:13/871&r=ara |
| By: | Sahbi, Farhani; Shahbaz, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to explore the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption, output and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 10 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period of 1980–2009. The results from panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) show that renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption add in CO2 emissions while output (real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita) exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with CO2 emissions i.e. environment Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated. The short-run dynamics indicate the unidirectional causality running from renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption and output to CO2 emissions. In the long-run, there appears to be the bidirectional causality between electricity consumption (renewable and non-renewable) and CO2 emissions. The findings suggest that future reductions in CO2 emissions might be achieved at the cost of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Electricity consumption, Output, CO2 emissions, MENA region |
| JEL: | C5 |
| Date: | 2014–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57461&r=ara |
| By: | Giray Berberoglu (Department of Secondary Mathematics and Science Education, METU); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany; Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effectiveness of private tutoring in Turkey. The authors introduce their study by providing some background information on the two major national examinations and three different kinds of tutoring. They then describe how they aimed to analyse whether attending private tutoring centres (PTCs) enhances Turkish students’ academic performance. By way of multiple linear regression analysis, their study sought to evaluate whether the impact of private tutoring varies in different subject areas, taking into account several student-related characteristics such as family and academic backgrounds as well as interest in and perception of academic success. In terms of subject areas, the results indicate that while private tutoring does have a positive impact on academic performance in mathematics and Turkish language, this is not the case in natural sciences. However, as evidenced by the effect sizes, these impacts are rather small compared to the impacts of other variables such as interest in and perception of academic success, high school graduation fields of study, high school cumulative grade point average (CGPA), parental education and students’ sociocultural background. While the authors point out that more research on the impact of further important variables needs to be done, their view is that school seems to be an important factor for determining students’ academic performance. |
| Keywords: | Private tutoring, Academic Performance, Regression analysis, Turkey. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1408&r=ara |
| By: | Ibrahim Fatnassi; Habib Hasnaoui; Zied Ftiti |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of capital on profitability and risk for Islamic and conventional Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banks, through the structure-conduct-performance, moral hazard, and regulatory hypotheses. We apply the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique for dynamic panels, using bank-level data for 113 banks over the period 2003–2011. First, we find that both highly capitalized Islamic banks and highly capitalized conventional banks generate low returns. Second, higher-capitalized GCC banks (Islamic and conventional) are found to be more risky. Third, all profitability and risk variables show persistence. Finally, we arrive at the same conclusions about the capital, profitability, and risk relationship during the subprime crisis and with the introduction of regulatory variables. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital; Profitability; Risk; Dynamic panel; |
| JEL: | G21 C23 E52 |
| Date: | 2014–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-413&r=ara |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | This text is for the relation between credit default swap (CDS) spreads and some chosen macro economic data in Turkish economy. Credit default swap spread as an insurance spread is the most important sign for the solvency of the debitors in that country about the securities that public sector and companies export in an economy. Thus, the decisions of investors for the investment feasibility related to economy are based on the information that was supplied by these spreads. Therefore, the credit default swap spreads have become a kind of reliability index. Moreover, they have become an information source about the general view of economy except the investee securities. In this study, the relation between the interest rates of CDS spreads and GDP is determined over time. |
| Keywords: | Credit Default Swap Spreads, GDP, Interest Rates, Turkish Economy. |
| JEL: | G24 O40 O52 |
| Date: | 2014–07–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57380&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | The strong recovery in the real estate market in Dubai requires close monitoring and further measures to discourage speculative demand. The residential and hospitality segments have seen buoyant growth (although the momentum seems to have slowed in recent months), while growth in the commercial segments (excluding hospitality) has been slower. Dubai’s economy is now more resilient to exogenous shocks; however, speculation in the residential segment of the Dubai’s real estate market may still return at a significant scale. A number of measures that are expected to help reduce flipping activity have already been introduced. More measures from the macroprudential and fiscal toolkit for containing real estate booms may be needed, particularly if signs of flipping activity emerge strongly. Hosting a global-scale event may offer direct and indirect economic benefits, but it can also present risks. With its well-established status as a hub of regional tourism and well- developed infrastructure, the economy of Dubai (and of the United Arab Emirates) economy can benefit substantially from hosting the Expo 2020. Careful macroeconomic management and appropriate strategic planning measures will be essential to minimize cost overruns, avoid overheating, and limit real estate risks. These measures include preparing a sound feasibility study linked to the post-event period, developing realistic demand projections, financing the Expo and other project-related spending in a fiscally sustainable manner, and continuing to strengthen Dubai’s public finances to increase buffers for possible cost overruns and losses. |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/188&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Economic context. Economic growth has been solid, supported by tourism, hospitality, and a rebounding real estate sector. Rapid price increases in some segments of the real estate market have prompted concerns about possible excessive risk-taking. The pace of fiscal consolidation slowed in 2013. The economic recovery, combined with higher real estate prices and a liquid banking system, has further supported the rollover of the still- large debt maturities of government-related entities (GREs). Policy Focus. Economic and financial policies should continue to aim at mitigating the risk of a renewed cycle of exuberance, and at strengthening the fiscal position. Efforts in deleveraging and restructuring GREs should continue. Macroeconomic policy mix. Fiscal plans for this year and the medium term imply appropriate countercyclical fiscal policy amid economic strengthening. Monetary policy in coming years is expected to tighten under the U.S. dollar peg, helping the United Arab Emirates (UAE) mitigate the risk of potentially large private credit growth, and could be supported by macroprudential tightening should deposit and credit growth accelerate further. Real estate. Further measures, such as setting higher fees for reselling properties within a short time, and restrictions on reselling off-plan properties, are warranted, particularly if rapid price increases continue. These measures could be supported by targeted macroprudential tightening in case real estate lending picks up further. GREs. Strengthening the coordinating mechanisms for prioritizing and sequencing major projects will be important, as is continuing to avoid new large-scale risk-taking by highly indebted GREs. Building on recent progress, upcoming debt maturities should be managed proactively; this should include timely communication and improving GREs’ transparency and governance. Financial stability. The banking system maintains significant capital and liquidity buffers. Banking system soundness should be further strengthened by gradually reducing the exposure to emirate governments and GREs of those banks exceeding recently imposed loan concentration limits, by strengthening corporate governance in banks, and by continuing to enhance the financial integrity framework. |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/187&r=ara |
| By: | Bouoiyour, Jamal; Miftah, Amal; Selmi, Refk |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, it attempts to analyze accurately the volatility of economic growth and financial flows (i.e. remittances and FDI) in the case of Morocco. Secondly, it tries to address the possible effects of these financial flows on the economic growth. We provide evidence that remittances are less volatile than FDI in terms of duration of persistence, intensity of shock and the “volatility clustering”. Furthermore, remittances can smooth the volatility of growth, while FDI flows sustain and aggravate it. Altruistic foundations, counter-cyclicality and concentration of remittances in Europe have been advanced as elements of explanation of these outcomes. Similarly, foreign investors seeking only profits have a pro-cyclical behavior and are greatly sensitive to economic conditions in the country of origin. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth volatility; Remittances; FDI; GARCH models. |
| JEL: | F0 F24 G0 |
| Date: | 2014–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57258&r=ara |
| By: | Zied Ftiti; Khaled Guesmi; Frédéric Teulon; Slim Chouachi |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the degree of interdependence between oil prices and four major countries (United |
| Keywords: | oil price shocks, stock markets, evolutionary co-spectral analysis, OPEC |
| JEL: | C14 C22 G12 G15 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-421&r=ara |
| By: | Hilel HAMADACHE (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA; Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier, Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Sophie Drogue (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present a Social accounting matrix and a computable general equilibrium model of the Algerian economy for 2009. The model is then use to perform scenarios simulation of reduction and removal of consumption subsidies on the wheat sector in Algeria. |
| Keywords: | social accounting matrix, general equilibrium, food subsidy, algeria, marché agricole, politique agricole, prix alimentaire, ble tendre, matricemodèle d'équilibre généralalgérie |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inr:wpaper:264676&r=ara |
| By: | M. DISLI; K. SCHOORS (-) |
| Abstract: | We analyze how rebranding affects depositor discipline in a sample of Turkish banks. Depositor discipline refers to the empirical regularity that banks with higher capitalization attract more deposits at lower cost. Bank rebranding tends to increase depositor discipline, especially when there is only a small cosmetic change to the name. Rebranding a Turkish named bank into a foreign named one is associated with increased depositor discipline. In a similar manner, depositor discipline tends to decrease in the short-run if the bank rebrands from a foreign name to a Turkish one. These results suggest the presence of depositor ethnocentrism. Our main findings are robust to controls for major ownership changes and for selection effects. |
| Keywords: | depositor discipline; rebranding; banks |
| JEL: | G2 M3 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:13/867&r=ara |
| By: | Aytekin Güven (Abant izzet Baysal Universitesi, iktisat Bolumu); Basak Dalgic (Hacettepe Universitesi, Maliye Bolumu); Aysit Tansel (Orta Dogu Teknik Universitesi, iktisat Bolumu; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany; Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | Son donemlerde dunya genelinde artan gelir esitsizlikleri, iktisatcilarin dikkatlerini esitsizlikleri dengeleyici faktorlerden biri olarak gorulen bireylerin gelir durumlarini daha ust ya da daha alt gelir gruplarina tasiyabilmeleri olarak adlandirilan gelir hareketliligi konusuna cevirmelerine neden olmustur. Gelir hareketliligi ve esitsizlikler uzerindeki etkileri 2000’li yillardan sonra ve daha cok gelismis ulkeler icin incelenmeye baslanmis ve genel bir sonuca ulasmak icin henuz yeterli sayida calisma yapilmamistir. Bu calisma gelir dagilimi en adaletsiz ulkeler arasinda yer alan Turkiye icin bir gelir esitsizligi ve gelir hareketliligi analizi yaparak gelismekte olan ulke ornegi ile literature katki sunmayi amaclamaktadir. Calismadan elde edilen sonuclar ozetle soyledir: i) Ele alinan donem uzadikca gelir hareketliligi atmaktadir ancak bu hareketlilik gelir esitsizligini azaltici nitelikte degildir. ii) Gelir dagiliminin an alt ve en ust gruplari diger gruplara gore daha hareketlidir. iii) Ele alindan alt donemlerde en alt gelir grubundaki bireylerin %30’u issiz durumuna duserken, yalnizca %1,5’i en ust gelir grubuna yukselebilmistir. |
| Keywords: | Gelir Hareketliligi, Gelir Esitsizligi, Turkiye. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J60 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1407&r=ara |