Jiménez Polanco, Miguel Alejandro and López Hawa, Nabil and Ramírez Escoboza, Merlym (2016): Indicadores Compuestos de Actividad Económica por sectores para la República Dominicana. Published in: Documento de Trabajo Banco Central de la República Dominicana No. 2016-01 (15 December 2016)
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Abstract
In this paper we construct real activity composite indicators for service, industry and agricultural sectors, using of principal components analysis. The proposed indicators are the result of the first principal component that summarizes the common movements shared by the series of each sector. The results indicate that each of the composite indicators constructed show a high correlation with real economic activity of the sector that they represent. Additionally, these indicators are capable of capturing the secular movements of business cycle. These indicators may help in the analysis of real activity and provide signals of where the economy is going.
| Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
|---|---|
| Original Title: | Indicadores Compuestos de Actividad Económica por sectores para la República Dominicana |
| English Title: | Composite Indicators of Economic Activity for the Dominican Republic |
| Language: | Spanish |
| Keywords: | Principal Components, Common Factor, Business Cycle Analysis. |
| Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy |
| Item ID: | 75916 |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Miguel Alejandro Jimenez Polanco |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Jan 2017 12:44 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Oct 2019 05:34 |
| References: | Acevedo, I. (2013). “Indicadores Cíclicos del IMAE.” Documento de Trabajo No. 026. Banco Central de Nicaragua. Brave, S.A. y Butters, R.A. (2014). “Nowcasting using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.” Economic Perspective, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 38, pp. 19-37. Evans, C.L., Liu, C.T, y Pham-Kanter, G. (2002). “The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Identifying business cycle turning points.” Economic Perspective, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 26, pp. 26-43. Fisher, J. (2000). “Forecasting inflation with a lot of data.” Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No.151. Fuentes, J. y Salazar, R. (2009). “Cálculo de un Indicador Coincidente y Adelantado de la Actividad Económica Salvadoreña.” Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador. Mariano, R.S. y Murasawa, Y. (2004). “Constructing a coincident index of business cycles without assuming a one-factor model.” SMU Economics & Statistics Working Paper Series, Paper No. 22-2004. Singapore. Melo, L.F. y Nieto, F. (2001). “Un índice coincidente para la actividad económica colombiana.” Borradores de Economía, Banco de la República, No. 195. Mitchel, W. (1913). “Business Cycles”. Berkeley: University of California Press. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (2013). “Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.” Stock, J. y Watson, M. (1989). “New Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 4, pp. 351-395. Stock, J. y Watson, M. (1999). “Forecasting inflation.” Journal of Monetary Economics, pp. 293-335. |
| URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/75916 |
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