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Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  2. Axel Dreher, 2009. "IMF conditionality: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 233-267, October.
  3. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Vreeland, 2008. "The political economy of IMF forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 145-171, October.
  4. Frank Bohn & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 817-841, October.
  5. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, "undated". "Dari Pendapatan Rendah dan Kemiskinan Tinggi menuju Pendapatan Tinggi Tanpa Kemiskinan? Pandangan Optimistis Evolusi Kemiskinan Jangka Panjang di Indonesia Menurut Garis Kemiskinan Internasional, 1984," Working Papers 3438, Publications Department.
  6. Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2011. "Projecting macroeconomic outcomes: Evidence from the IMF," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 415-441, September.
  7. repec:lic:licosd:27210 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
  9. Burgess, Matthew G. & Langendorf, Ryan E. & Ippolito, Tara & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2020. "Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation," SocArXiv vndqr, Center for Open Science.
  10. repec:lic:licosd:25910 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Katja Heinisch & Axel Lindner, 2019. "For how long do IMF forecasts of world economic growth stay up-to-date?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 255-260, February.
  12. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
  13. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin F. & Richert, Katharina, 2019. "The political economy of International Finance Corporation lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 242-254.
  14. Hassan Naqvi, 2014. "IMF Conditionality and the Intertemporal Allocation of Resources," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 203-235, June.
  15. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
  16. Gudum, Melis, 2021. "Growth Forecasts vs. Realizations: The Role of Stimulus and Stringency Measures during the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 108447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
  18. Kersting, Erasmus K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2016. "With a little help from my friends: Global electioneering and World Bank lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 153-165.
  19. Andy Sumner, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  20. Roland Vaubel, 2009. "Lessons From The Financial Crisis: The International Dimension," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 22-26, September.
  21. Axel Dreher & Katharina Michaelowa, 2008. "The political economy of international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 331-334, December.
  22. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, "undated". "From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030," Working Papers 287, Publications Department.
  23. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
  24. Sumner, Andy, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series 062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  25. Andy Sumner, 2012. "Where Will the World’s Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion," Working Papers 305, Center for Global Development.
  26. Roland Vaubel, 2011. "Comment on Conway (2010): The role of the International Monetary Fund in the financial crisis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 477-482, September.
  27. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
  28. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," KOF Working papers 07-176, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  29. Hoy Chris & Sumner Andy, 2016. "Global Poverty and Inequality: Is There New Capacity for Redistribution in Developing Countries?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 117-157, June.
  30. Rybacki, Jakub, 2021. "Does International Monetary Fund Favor Certain Countries During the Fiscal Forecasting – Evidence of the Institutional Biases?," MPRA Paper 107681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Charles Kenny, Jonathan Karver, and Andy Sumner, 2012. "MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets, and Timeframe? - Working Paper 297," Working Papers 297, Center for Global Development.
  32. Franck A. Malan, 2018. "Does being an IMF executive board member (Re)pay? An examination of IMF loans and repayments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2669-2690, October.
  33. Vaubel Roland, 2009. "Lehren aus der Finanzkrise: Rolle des Staates und internationale Dimension / Lessons from the financial crisis: The role of government and the international dimension," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 247-266, January.
  34. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
  35. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
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