[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/wop/pennca/97-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this item

Evaluating Density Forecasts

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
  3. Taillardat, Maxime & Fougères, Anne-Laure & Naveau, Philippe & de Fondeville, Raphaël, 2023. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extremes using continuous ranked probability score distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1448-1459.
  4. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
  5. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
  6. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Alquier Pierre & Li Xiaoyin & Wintenberger Olivier, 2014. "Prediction of time series by statistical learning: general losses and fast rates," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2013), pages 65-93, January.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo.
  9. Li, Rui & Reich, Brian J. & Bondell, Howard D., 2021. "Deep distribution regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  10. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
  11. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Bharat Barot, 2004. "How accurate are the Swedish forecasters on GDB-Growth, CPI-inflation and unemployment? (1993 - 2001)," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(2), pages 249-278.
  13. Hördahl, Peter, 2000. "Estimating the Implied Distribution of the Future Short-Term Interest Rate Using the Longstaff-Schwartz Model," Working Paper Series 111, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  14. Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
  15. Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Papers (Old Series) 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1998. "Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  17. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Mirko Meloni & Zahid Irshad Younas, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies: A Copula Based Approach for Asymmetric Risk Marginal Allocations," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202034, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  18. Jones, David & Mingo, John, 1999. "Credit risk modeling and internal capital allocation processes: implications for a models-based regulatory bank capital standard," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 79-108, March.
  19. Sancetta, A. & Nikanrova, A., 2005. "Forecasting and Prequential Validation for Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  20. Burkhard Raunig, 2003. "Testing for Longer Horizon Predictability of Return Volatility with an Application to the German," Working Papers 86, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  21. Leopoldo Catania & Alessandra Luati & Pierluigi Vallarino, 2021. "Economic vulnerability is state dependent," CREATES Research Papers 2021-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  22. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
  23. HEINEN, Andréas, 2003. "Modelling time series count data: an autoregressive conditional Poisson model," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  24. Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics.
  25. Matthew Pritsker, 2001. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  27. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
  28. Christian Gourieroux & Joanna Jasiak, 1999. "Nonlinear Innovations and Impulse Response," Working Papers 99-44, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  29. Raunig, Burkhard & de Raaij, Gabriela, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  30. Arrieta-Prieto, Mario & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasting of wind power for multiple farms: A copula-based hybrid model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 300-320.
  31. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308.
  32. Tomás Marinozzi, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 81-110, May.
  33. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2006. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 247-281, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  34. Li, Fuchun, 2007. "Testing The Parametric Specification Of The Diffusion Function In A Diffusion Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 221-250, April.
  35. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Bootstrap conditional distribution tests in the presence of dynamic misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 779-806, August.
  36. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17.
  37. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  38. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Barot, Bharat, 2007. "Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers 98, National Institute of Economic Research.
  41. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/195, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  43. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
  44. Manner, H., 2007. "Estimation and model selection of copulas with an application to exchange rates," Research Memorandum 056, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  45. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
  46. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2002. "The Properties Of Some Goodness-Of-Fit Tests," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 653, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  47. Jean-Paul Laurent & Hassan Omidi Firouzi, 2022. "Market Risk and Volatility Weighted Historical Simulation After Basel III," Working Papers hal-03679434, HAL.
  48. Fuchun Li & Greg Tkacz, 2001. "A Consistent Bootstrap Test for Conditional Density Functions with Time-Dependent Data," Staff Working Papers 01-21, Bank of Canada.
  49. Casciaro, Gabriele & Ferrari, Francesco & Lagomarsino-Oneto, Daniele & Lira-Loarca, Andrea & Mazzino, Andrea, 2022. "Increasing the skill of short-term wind speed ensemble forecasts combining forecasts and observations via a new dynamic calibration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
  50. Gabriela De Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2005. "Evaluating density forecasts from models of stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 151-166.
  51. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  52. Jeremy Berkowitz & James M. O'Brien, 2001. "How accurate are Value-at-Risk models at commercial banks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  53. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, "undated". "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  55. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  56. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
  57. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  58. Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Bing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 39-42.
  59. Silvano Bordignon & Francesco Lisi, 2001. "Interval prediction for chaotic time series," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3-4), pages 117-140.
  60. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Jordi Pons, 2001. "The rationality of price forecasts: a directional analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 287-290.
  62. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Claudio Latini & Zahid I. Younas & Mamdouh A. S. Al-Faryan, 2023. "Optimization of portfolios with cryptocurrencies: Markowitz and GARCH-Copula model approach," Papers 2401.00507, arXiv.org.
  63. Giovanni De Luca & Paola Zuccolotto, 2003. "Finite and infinite mixtures for financial durations," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3), pages 431-455.
  64. Ioannis Anagnostou & Drona Kandhai, 2019. "Risk Factor Evolution for Counterparty Credit Risk under a Hidden Markov Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, June.
  65. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  66. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.
  67. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "A Test for Comparing Multiple Misspecified Conditional Distributions," Departmental Working Papers 200314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  68. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
  69. Enrique Sentana & Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2004. "Indirect Estimation of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2004_0409, CEMFI.
  70. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
  71. Baggio, Roberta & Muzy, Jean-François, 2024. "Improving probabilistic wind speed forecasting using M-Rice distribution and spatial data integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
  72. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2003. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
  73. Oller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-315.
  74. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F Engle, 2000. "The ACD Model: Predictability of the Time Between Concecutive Trades," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  75. Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.