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2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia
← 2016 November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03) 2024 →
Turnout75.07% (Increase5.8 pp)
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 2,413,568 1,962,430
Percentage 54.11% 44.00%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Ballot measures
Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Henrico County
Commonwealth's Attorney
Norfolk
Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.11% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.1%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.[3] Trump became the first Republican incumbent to consecutively lose Virginia since William Howard Taft and Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976.[4] He also flipped Chesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since 1960 to win without Westmoreland County, a notable bellwether. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Caroline County, Nelson County, or Covington.[citation needed]

The diversification of Northern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in it. Biden won Henrico County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first outside Richmond and the others in Northern Virginia. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. In Arlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in more than a century to do so. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carried government workers by 18%.[5]

Primary elections

[edit]

Canceled Republican primary

[edit]
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses.[6] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[7][8] At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6][9][10]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information: 2020 Virginia Democratic primary
Sanders at a rally in Richmond on February 27, 2020

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.[11]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary § VAresults.[edit]
county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
congressional district
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary[12][a]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[14]
Joe Biden 705,501 53.30 67
Bernie Sanders 306,388 23.15 31
Elizabeth Warren 142,546 10.77 1
Michael Bloomberg 128,030 9.67
Tulsi Gabbard 11,288 0.85
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] 11,199 0.85
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] 8,414 0.64
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[c] 3,361 0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,910 0.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] 1,472 0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[c] 1,437 0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 902 0.07
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 691 0.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[c] 370 0.03
Write-in votes 184 0.01
Total 1,323,693 100% 99

Green primary

[edit]

The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020.[15]

2020 Green Party of Virginia primary[15]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Howie Hawkins 42 62.7% 42 62.7% 43 64.2% 44 65.7%
Dario Hunter 17 25.4% 18 26.9% 21 31.3% 23 34.3%
Kent Mesplay 3 4.5% 3 4.5% 3 4.5% Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry 2 3.0% 2 3.0% Eliminated
Jill Stein (write-in) 2 3.0% Eliminated
Jesse Ventura (write-in) 1 1.5% Eliminated
Total votes 67 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Likely D November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[17] Solid D November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Likely D November 3, 2020
Politico[19] Likely D November 3, 2020
RCP[20] Lean D November 3, 2020
Niskanen[21] Safe D November 3, 2020
CNN[22] Solid D November 3, 2020
The Economist[23] Likely D November 3, 2020
CBS News[24] Likely D November 3, 2020
270towin[25] Likely D November 3, 2020
ABC News[26] Solid D November 3, 2020
NPR[27] Likely D September 16, 2020
NBC News[28] Likely D November 3, 2020
538[29] Solid D November 3, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[d] 		Margin
270 to Win[30] October 15–31, 2020 November 3, 2020 52.8% 41.0% 6.2% Biden +11.8
FiveThirtyEight[31] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.7% 41.9% 4.4% Biden +11.8
Average 53.1% 41.5% 5.3% Biden +11.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 4,550 (LV) ± 2% 41%[f] 57% - - – –
Swayable[33] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 467 (LV) ± 6.4% 39% 59% 2% 1% – –
Data for Progress[34] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 54% 1% 0% 1%[g] –
Roanoke College[35] Oct 23–29, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 53% 2% - 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Oct 1–28, 2020 7,663 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – –
Christopher Newport University[36] Oct 15–27, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 53% - - 2%[h] 4%
Swayable[37] Oct 23–26, 2020 351 (LV) ± 5.2% 44% 55% 1% - – –
Virginia Commonwealth University[38] Oct 13–22, 2020 709 (LV) ± 4.93% 39% 51% - - 2%[i] 8%[j]
Schar School/Washington Post[39] Oct 13–19, 2020 908 (LV) ± 4% 41% 52% 3% - 0%[k] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[40] Oct 11–14, 2020 1,231 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 55% - - 3%[l] 1%
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College[41] Sep 30 – Oct 12, 2020 602 (LV) – 39%[m] 54% 4% - - 4%
Survey Monkey/Tableau[42] Sep 15 – Oct 12, 2020 4,248 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – 2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[43][A] Oct 9–11, 2020 607 (LV) – 42% 51% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,882 (LV) – 42% 56% - - – 2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[44][1][A] Sep 22–25, 2020 600 (LV) – 41% 52% - - – –
Christopher Newport University[45] Sep 9–21, 2020 796 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 48% - - 2%[n] 7%
Virginia Commonwealth University[46] Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020 693 (LV) ± 6.22% 39% 52% - - 1%[o] 8%[j]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Aug 1–31, 2020 2,626 (LV) – 41% 57% - - – 2%
Roanoke College[47] Aug 9–22, 2020 566 (LV) ± 4.1% 39% 53% - - 3%[p] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Jul 1–31, 2020 3,178 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – 2%
Morning Consult[48] Jul 17–26, 2020 1,156 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 52% - - – –
Virginia Commonwealth University[49] Jul 11–19, 2020 725 (LV) ± 6.2% 39% 50% - - 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32] Jun 8–30, 2020 1,619 (LV) – 42% 57% - - – 1%
Morning Consult[48] May 17–26, 2020 1,148 (LV) – 42%[q] 52% - - – –
Roanoke College[50] May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 39% 51% - - – –
Virginia Commonwealth University[51] Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020 812 (A) ± 4.5% 41% 51% - - – 8%
Hampton University[52] Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 45% - - – –
Roanoke College[53] Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 48% - - – –
Mason-Dixon[54] Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - – 6%
Virginia Commonwealth University[55] Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 46% 49% - - – 5%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth University[56] Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 44% 52% - - – 4%[j]
University of Mary Washington/Research America[57] Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 37% 55% - - 1% 4%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Hampton University[52] Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 43%
Roanoke College[53] Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Hampton University[52] Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% –
Roanoke College[53] Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% –
Mason-Dixon[54] Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Mary Washington[58] Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 50% 2% 5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Hampton University[52] Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 37% 39%
Roanoke College[53] Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 46%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Hampton University[52] Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 44% – –
Roanoke College[53] Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49% – –
Mason-Dixon[54] Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 45% – 4%
Virginia Commonwealth University[55] Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 45% – 7%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth University[56] Sep 2 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 48% – 5%[j]
University of Mary Washington/Research America[57] Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 2% 4%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Hampton University[52] Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 42% – –
Roanoke College[53] Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% – –
Mason-Dixon[54] Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Virginia Commonwealth University[55] Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 47% – 6%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth University[56] Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 50% – 4%[j]
University of Mary Washington[58] Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 1% 5%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Wason Center, Christopher Newport University[59] Sep 4–30, 2019 726 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 51% 6%[r] 6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Other Undecided
Wason Center, Christopher Newport University[60] Feb 3–23, 2020 866 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 59%[s] 0%[t] 2%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University[56] Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 48% 49% – 3%[j]
Ipsos/University of Virginia[61] Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 25% 45% 3% 20%

Results

[edit]
Line for early voting in Herndon
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia[62][63]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,413,568 54.11% +4.38%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,962,430 44.00% −0.41%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		64,761 1.45% −1.52%
Write-in 19,765 0.44% -0.41%
Turnout 4,460,524 75.07% +5.8%
Total votes 4,460,524 100.00%

By city and county

[edit]
County/City Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Accomack 7,578 44.68% 9,172 54.07% 212 1.25% -1,594 -9.39% 16,962
Albemarle 42,466 65.68% 20,804 32.18% 1,387 2.14% 21,662 33.50% 64,657
Alexandria 66,240 80.28% 14,544 17.63% 1,724 2.09% 51,696 62.65% 82,508
Alleghany 2,243 27.34% 5,859 71.43% 101 1.23% -3,616 -44.09% 8,203
Amelia 2,411 30.55% 5,390 68.29% 92 1.16% -2,979 -37.74% 7,893
Amherst 5,672 33.35% 11,041 64.93% 292 1.72% -5,369 -31.58% 17,005
Appomattox 2,418 26.09% 6,702 72.31% 148 1.60% -4,284 -46.22% 9,268
Arlington 105,344 80.60% 22,318 17.08% 3,037 2.32% 83,026 63.52% 130,699
Augusta 10,840 25.64% 30,714 72.65% 724 1.71% -19,874 -47.01% 42,278
Bath 646 25.83% 1,834 73.33% 21 0.84% -1,188 -47.50% 2,501
Bedford 12,176 25.02% 35,600 73.15% 893 1.83% -23,424 -48.13% 48,669
Bland 532 15.29% 2,903 83.44% 44 1.27% -2,371 -68.15% 3,479
Botetourt 5,700 26.99% 15,099 71.49% 321 1.52% -9,399 -44.50% 21,120
Bristol 2,313 29.63% 5,347 68.50% 146 1.87% -3,034 -38.87% 7,806
Brunswick 4,552 57.27% 3,357 42.24% 39 0.49% 1,195 15.03% 7,948
Buchanan 1,587 15.94% 8,311 83.50% 55 0.56% -6,724 -67.56% 9,953
Buckingham 3,471 42.71% 4,544 55.92% 111 1.37% -1,073 -13.21% 8,126
Buena Vista 825 29.72% 1,863 67.11% 88 3.17% -1,038 -37.39% 2,776
Campbell 8,070 27.00% 21,245 71.07% 577 1.93% -13,175 -44.07% 29,892
Caroline 7,657 47.01% 8,336 51.18% 295 1.81% -679 -4.17% 16,288
Carroll 2,842 18.16% 12,659 80.88% 150 0.96% -9,817 -62.72% 15,651
Charles City 2,624 59.09% 1,761 39.65% 56 1.26% 863 19.44% 4,441
Charlotte 2,317 37.43% 3,815 61.62% 59 0.95% -1,498 -24.19% 6,191
Charlottesville 20,696 85.50% 3,094 12.78% 415 1.72% 17,602 72.72% 24,205
Chesapeake 66,377 52.22% 58,180 45.77% 2,551 2.01% 8,197 6.45% 127,108
Chesterfield 106,935 52.45% 93,326 45.77% 3,623 1.78% 13,609 6.68% 203,884
Clarke 3,920 41.98% 5,192 55.61% 225 2.41% -1,272 -13.63% 9,337
Colonial Heights 2,972 32.50% 6,007 65.68% 167 1.82% -3,035 -33.18% 9,146
Covington 964 37.03% 1,580 60.70% 59 2.27% -616 -23.67% 2,603
Craig 587 18.52% 2,536 80.03% 46 1.45% -1,949 -61.51% 3,169
Culpeper 10,617 39.15% 16,012 59.05% 487 1.80% -5,395 -19.90% 27,116
Cumberland 2,227 41.94% 3,019 56.85% 64 1.21% -792 -14.91% 5,310
Danville 11,710 60.40% 7,428 38.31% 251 1.30% 4,282 22.09% 19,389
Dickenson 1,503 20.58% 5,748 78.71% 52 0.71% -4,245 -58.13% 7,303
Dinwiddie 6,224 41.24% 8,695 57.61% 173 1.15% -2,471 -16.37% 15,092
Emporia 1,612 67.70% 754 31.67% 15 0.63% 858 36.03% 2,381
Essex 3,038 49.17% 3,075 49.77% 65 1.06% -37 -0.60% 6,178
Fairfax 419,943 69.89% 168,401 28.03% 12,479 2.08% 251,542 41.86% 600,823
Fairfax City 9,174 68.04% 4,007 29.72% 302 2.24% 5,167 38.32% 13,483
Falls Church 7,146 81.03% 1,490 16.90% 183 2.07% 5,656 64.13% 8,819
Fauquier 17,565 40.23% 25,106 57.50% 990 2.27% -7,541 -17.27% 43,661
Floyd 3,004 31.93% 6,225 66.17% 179 1.90% -3,221 -34.24% 9,408
Fluvanna 7,414 46.81% 8,155 51.48% 271 1.71% -741 -4.67% 15,840
Franklin 8,381 28.22% 20,895 70.35% 426 1.43% -12,514 -42.13% 29,702
Franklin City 2,525 62.22% 1,487 36.64% 46 1.14% 1,038 25.58% 4,058
Frederick 17,207 35.33% 30,558 62.74% 938 1.93% -13,351 -27.41% 48,703
Fredericksburg 8,517 66.22% 4,037 31.39% 308 2.39% 4,480 34.83% 12,862
Galax 777 29.45% 1,838 69.67% 23 0.88% -1,061 -40.22% 2,638
Giles 2,156 23.50% 6,876 74.93% 144 1.57% -4,720 -51.43% 9,176
Gloucester 6,964 31.25% 14,875 66.76% 443 1.99% -7,911 -35.51% 22,282
Goochland 6,685 39.44% 9,966 58.80% 299 1.76% -3,281 -19.36% 16,950
Grayson 1,535 18.88% 6,529 80.30% 67 0.82% -4,994 -61.42% 8,131
Greene 4,163 36.80% 6,866 60.70% 282 2.50% -2,703 -23.90% 11,311
Greensville 2,627 57.43% 1,914 41.85% 33 0.72% 713 15.58% 4,574
Halifax 7,666 42.01% 10,418 57.09% 164 0.90% -2,752 -15.08% 18,248
Hampton 46,220 70.14% 18,430 27.97% 1,251 1.89% 27,790 42.17% 65,901
Hanover 25,307 35.66% 44,318 62.45% 1,342 1.89% -19,011 -26.79% 70,967
Harrisonburg 11,022 64.51% 5,591 32.72% 473 2.77% 5,431 31.79% 17,086
Henrico 116,572 63.65% 63,440 34.64% 3,140 1.71% 53,132 29.01% 183,152
Henry 9,127 34.96% 16,725 64.07% 253 0.97% -7,598 -29.11% 26,105
Highland 417 27.20% 1,092 71.23% 24 1.57% -675 -44.03% 1,533
Hopewell 5,430 56.52% 4,020 41.84% 158 1.64% 1,410 14.68% 9,608
Isle of Wight 9,399 40.07% 13,707 58.44% 350 1.49% -4,308 -18.37% 23,456
James City 25,553 51.50% 23,153 46.66% 916 1.84% 2,400 4.84% 49,622
King and Queen 1,590 38.64% 2,450 59.54% 75 1.82% -860 -20.90% 4,115
King George 5,404 37.99% 8,446 59.38% 374 2.63% -3,042 -21.39% 14,224
King William 3,260 30.37% 7,320 68.18% 156 1.45% -4,060 -37.81% 10,736
Lancaster 3,368 47.09% 3,697 51.69% 87 1.22% -329 -4.60% 7,152
Lee 1,489 14.97% 8,365 84.10% 92 0.93% -6,876 -69.13% 9,946
Lexington 1,791 64.84% 906 32.80% 65 2.36% 885 32.04% 2,762
Loudoun 138,372 61.54% 82,088 36.51% 4,402 1.95% 56,284 25.03% 224,862
Louisa 8,269 37.73% 13,294 60.66% 352 1.61% -5,025 -22.93% 21,915
Lunenburg 2,418 40.30% 3,537 58.95% 45 0.75% -1,119 -18.65% 6,000
Lynchburg 18,048 49.63% 17,097 47.02% 1,218 3.35% 951 2.61% 36,363
Madison 2,698 33.19% 5,300 65.20% 131 1.61% -2,602 -32.01% 8,129
Manassas 10,356 61.03% 6,256 36.87% 356 2.10% 4,100 24.16% 16,968
Manassas Park 3,992 65.58% 1,979 32.51% 116 1.91% 2,013 33.07% 6,087
Martinsville 3,766 62.63% 2,165 36.01% 82 1.36% 1,601 26.62% 6,013
Mathews 1,825 31.33% 3,901 66.96% 100 1.71% -2,076 -35.63% 5,826
Mecklenburg 6,803 41.98% 9,266 57.18% 135 0.84% -2,463 -15.20% 16,204
Middlesex 2,491 36.71% 4,196 61.84% 98 1.45% -1,705 -25.13% 6,785
Montgomery 23,218 51.55% 20,629 45.80% 1,190 2.65% 2,589 5.75% 45,037
Nelson 4,327 46.45% 4,812 51.65% 177 1.90% -485 -5.20% 9,316
New Kent 4,621 31.95% 9,631 66.59% 211 1.46% -5,010 -34.64% 14,463
Newport News 53,099 65.39% 26,377 32.48% 1,727 2.13% 26,722 32.91% 81,203
Norfolk 64,440 71.69% 23,443 26.08% 1,998 2.23% 40,997 45.61% 89,881
Northampton 3,667 54.47% 2,955 43.89% 110 1.64% 712 10.58% 6,732
Northumberland 3,252 41.61% 4,485 57.39% 78 1.00% -1,233 -15.78% 7,815
Norton 464 28.98% 1,109 69.27% 28 1.75% -645 -40.29% 1,601
Nottoway 2,971 41.98% 4,027 56.89% 80 1.13% -1,056 -14.91% 7,078
Orange 7,995 38.54% 12,426 59.91% 321 1.55% -4,431 -21.37% 20,742
Page 3,007 24.03% 9,345 74.68% 162 1.29% -6,338 -50.65% 12,514
Patrick 1,954 20.50% 7,485 78.51% 95 0.99% -5,531 -58.01% 9,534
Petersburg 12,389 87.75% 1,584 11.22% 145 1.03% 10,805 76.53% 14,118
Pittsylvania 10,115 29.55% 23,751 69.39% 361 1.06% -13,636 -39.84% 34,227
Poquoson 2,054 26.14% 5,605 71.34% 198 2.52% -3,551 -45.20% 7,857
Portsmouth 30,948 69.42% 12,755 28.61% 879 1.97% 18,193 40.81% 44,582
Powhatan 5,320 26.96% 14,055 71.24% 355 1.80% -8,735 -44.28% 19,730
Prince Edward 4,973 51.94% 4,434 46.31% 167 1.75% 539 5.63% 9,574
Prince George 7,103 40.75% 10,103 57.96% 226 1.29% -3,000 -17.21% 17,432
Prince William 142,863 62.64% 81,222 35.61% 3,971 1.74% 61,641 27.03% 228,056
Pulaski 4,925 28.34% 12,127 69.79% 324 1.87% -7,202 -41.45% 17,376
Radford 3,358 53.13% 2,786 44.08% 176 2.79% 572 9.05% 6,320
Rappahannock 2,096 42.11% 2,812 56.49% 70 1.40% -716 -14.38% 4,978
Richmond 1,513 36.88% 2,547 62.09% 42 1.03% -1,034 -25.21% 4,102
Richmond City 92,175 82.92% 16,603 14.94% 2,381 2.14% 75,572 67.98% 111,159
Roanoke 21,801 38.12% 34,268 59.93% 1,115 1.95% -12,467 -21.81% 57,184
Roanoke City 26,773 61.80% 15,607 36.02% 943 2.18% 11,166 25.78% 43,323
Rockbridge 4,086 33.02% 8,088 65.37% 199 1.61% -4,002 -32.35% 12,373
Rockingham 12,644 28.86% 30,349 69.27% 818 1.87% -17,705 -40.41% 43,811
Russell 2,373 17.73% 10,879 81.27% 134 1.00% -8,506 -63.54% 13,386
Salem 5,148 39.45% 7,683 58.87% 220 1.68% -2,535 -19.42% 13,051
Scott 1,692 15.57% 9,063 83.38% 114 1.05% -7,371 -67.81% 10,869
Shenandoah 6,836 28.86% 16,463 69.51% 385 1.63% -9,627 -40.65% 23,684
Smyth 3,008 21.28% 10,963 77.55% 165 1.17% -7,955 -56.27% 14,136
Southampton 3,969 40.56% 5,730 58.55% 87 0.89% -1,761 -17.99% 9,786
Spotsylvania 34,307 45.55% 39,411 52.33% 1,599 2.12% -5,104 -6.78% 75,317
Stafford 40,245 50.54% 37,636 47.27% 1,744 2.19% 2,609 3.27% 79,625
Staunton 6,981 53.74% 5,695 43.84% 314 2.42% 1,286 9.90% 12,990
Suffolk 28,676 57.77% 20,082 40.45% 884 1.78% 8,594 17.32% 49,642
Surry 2,397 53.61% 2,025 45.29% 49 1.10% 372 8.32% 4,471
Sussex 2,827 55.56% 2,219 43.61% 42 0.83% 608 11.95% 5,088
Tazewell 3,205 15.92% 16,731 83.10% 198 0.98% -13,526 -67.18% 20,134
Virginia Beach 117,393 51.59% 105,087 46.18% 5,081 2.23% 12,306 5.41% 227,561
Warren 6,603 31.22% 14,069 66.53% 475 2.25% -7,466 -35.31% 21,147
Washington 6,617 23.07% 21,679 75.58% 389 1.35% -15,062 -52.51% 28,685
Waynesboro 4,961 46.29% 5,507 51.39% 249 2.32% -546 -5.10% 10,717
Westmoreland 4,501 45.31% 5,318 53.54% 114 1.15% -817 -8.23% 9,933
Williamsburg 4,790 69.59% 1,963 28.52% 130 1.89% 2,827 41.07% 6,883
Winchester 6,610 54.60% 5,221 43.13% 275 2.27% 1,389 11.47% 12,106
Wise 3,110 18.72% 13,366 80.45% 139 0.83% -10,256 -61.73% 16,615
Wythe 3,143 20.85% 11,733 77.85% 196 1.30% -8,590 -57.00% 15,072
York 17,683 45.59% 20,241 52.19% 863 2.22% -2,558 -6.60% 38,787
Totals 2,413,568 54.11% 1,962,430 44.00% 84,526 1.89% 451,138 10.11% 4,460,524
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won 7 out of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 51.4% 47% Rob Wittman
2nd 46.7% 51.4% Elaine Luria
3rd 31.2% 67.2% Bobby Scott
4th 36.8% 61.8% Donald McEachin
5th 53.6% 45.1% Denver Riggleman
Bob Good
6th 59.8% 38.6% Ben Cline
7th 48.7% 49.8% Abigail Spanberger
8th 21.1% 77.6% Don Beyer
9th 70.4% 28.4% Morgan Griffith
10th 39.6% 58.9% Jennifer Wexton
11th 28.3% 70.3% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

[edit]

In this election, Virginia voted 5.6% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliably Republican state at the presidential level from 1952 to 2004 (having only gone to the Democrats once during that period, in Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide), it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004. In recent years, densely populated counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., have tilted towards the Democrats. This was the first election since 1988 that a presidential candidate won Virginia by double digits (George H. W. Bush having carried the state by 20.5% in his first run), and the first election in which any presidential candidate received over 2 million votes in Virginia.

As fellow Southern state Georgia tilted towards Biden, he became the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to carry both states. This was also the first election in which a former Confederate state backed a Democratic candidate by a margin of victory greater than 10% since 1996, when Arkansas and Louisiana did so for Bill Clinton.

Following the election, news and political analysts considered the presidential results in Virginia, along with Democrats holding the senate seat held by Mark Warner, their house congressional majority, plus the previous year's elections in which Democrats flipped the state General Assembly, to be indicative that it was no longer a swing state, but a blue state.[64][65]

Their domination of state and local offices would be short-lived, however, as in 2021 the Republicans flipped the Democratic-held offices of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, as well as winning control of the Virginia House of Delegates.[66][67] In 2023, Democrats recaptured the House of Delegates, winning full control of the General Assembly once again, albeit by narrower margins than what they acquired in 2019.

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump No
Answer 		% of
Voters
Party
Democrat 96 4 N/A 36
Republican 9 90 N/A 34
Independent 57 38 N/A 30
Gender
Men 49 48 1 49
Women 61 38 1 51
Race
White 45 53 2 67
Black 89 10 1 18
Latino 61 36 3 7
Asian 60 38 2 4
Other 50 43 7 3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 39 58 3 33
White women 50 49 1 33
Black men 86 14 N/A 8
Black women 92 8 N/A 11
Latino men (of any race) 53 41 6 3
Latino women (of any race) 68 32 N/A 4
All other races 58 40 2 8
Gender by marital status
Married men 50 49 N/A 29
Married women 51 47 N/A 28
Unmarried men 58 39 3 20
Unmarried women 69 30 N/A 23
Parents
Men with children 49 49 1 15
Women with children 58 41 1 19
Men no children 53 43 4 34
Women no children 60 38 2 32
Age
18–24 years old 62 33 1 12
25–29 years old 63 34 3 8
30–39 years old 60 38 2 17
40–49 years old 63 36 1 16
50–64 years old 48 51 N/A 29
65 and older 45 54 1 18
LGBT
Yes 83 11 N/A 5
No 53 43 4 95
First time voter
First time voter 65 32 3 9
Everyone else 55 42 N/A 91
U.S. military veteran
Yes 36 62 N/A 16
No 59 38 N/A 84
Education
College graduate 57 40 N/A 43
No college degree 53 46 1 57
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates 52 45 3 33
White no college degree 38 62 N/A 34
Non-white college graduates 75 24 1 10
Non-white no college degree 76 22 2 23
Income
Under $50,000 60 39 1 33
$50,000–99,999 52 47 1 27
Over $100,000 46 53 1 41
Abortion should be
Legal 78 20 2 54
Illegal 29 69 1 42
Area Type
Urban 64 34 2 24
Suburban 53 45 2 60
Rural 46 52 2 16
Region
DC Suburbs 68 30 N/A 30
Central Virginia 44 53 3 16
Hampton Roads 62 36 N/A 16
Richmond/Southside 56 42 N/A 18
Mountain 35 63 N/A 20
Source: CNN[68]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary" website published by the Virginia Department of Elections does not include the write-in votes.[13] This article includes them.
  2. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
  3. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i Includes "refused"
  11. ^ "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  13. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ "Third party candidate" with 1%
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  17. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  18. ^ "Would vote for a third party candidate" with 6%
  19. ^ "It is time to have someone else in office" as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected" with 59%
  20. ^ "Refused" with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Without Northern Virginia, Trump would have won the state". Inside Nova. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  4. ^ "Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn't backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that". Virginia Mercury. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  5. ^ "Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  6. ^ a b "Virginia Republicans Will Hold 2020 Presidential Preference Vote at State Convention". Frontloading. September 18, 2019. Retrieved September 19, 2019.
  7. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". The Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  8. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  9. ^ "Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  10. ^ Mattingly, Justin (June 30, 2020). "Republican Party of Virginia reschedules 'unassembled' convention for August". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  11. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  12. ^ "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia.gov. Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on March 17, 2020. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Virginia Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  15. ^ a b Jonah Thomas (May 12, 2020). "2020 GPVA Presidential Primary Results".
  16. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  20. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  21. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  22. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  23. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  26. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  27. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (September 16, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape tightens some, but Biden is still ahead". NPR. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  28. ^ "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. October 27, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  29. ^ "Biden is very likely to win Virginia". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  30. ^ 270 to Win
  31. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  32. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  33. ^ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  34. ^ Data for Progress
  35. ^ Roanoke College
  36. ^ Christopher Newport University
  37. ^ Swayable
  38. ^ Virginia Commonwealth University
  39. ^ Schar School/Washington Post
  40. ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  41. ^ Reconnect Research/Roanoke College
  42. ^ Survey Monkey/Tableau
  43. ^ Cygnal/Gade for Virginia
  44. ^ Cygnal/Gade for Virginia
  45. ^ Christopher Newport University
  46. ^ Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  47. ^ Roanoke College
  48. ^ a b Morning Consult
  49. ^ Virginia Commonwealth University
  50. ^ Roanoke College
  51. ^ Virginia Commonwealth University
  52. ^ a b c d e f Hampton University
  53. ^ a b c d e f Roanoke College
  54. ^ a b c d Mason-Dixon
  55. ^ a b c Virginia Commonwealth University
  56. ^ a b c d Virginia Commonwealth University[permanent dead link]
  57. ^ a b University of Mary Washington/Research America
  58. ^ a b University of Mary Washington
  59. ^ "2019 Virginia Legislative Election Survey - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University". cnu.edu. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
  60. ^ "2020 Virginia Presidential Primary Poll - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University". cnu.edu. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
  61. ^ Ipsos/University of Virginia
  62. ^ "2020 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived from the original on January 2, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  63. ^ "Virginia Department of Elections - Registration/Turnout Reports".
  64. ^ "Virginia went from purple to blue. Here's what lies ahead for Virginia Republicans". 13newsnow.com. November 5, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  65. ^ "EDITORIAL: 'NoVA creep" turns former red state blue". Fredericksburg.com. November 18, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  66. ^ "So, what color is Virginia now?". Roll Call. November 16, 2021. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  67. ^ "Republicans Bucked Virginia's Blue State Trend. Here Are A Few Reasons Why". WAMU. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  68. ^ "Virginia 2020 President Exit Polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
[edit]
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