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2016 United States presidential election in Virginia

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Virginia
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout72.1% (of registered voters)[1] Increase
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,981,473 1,769,443
Percentage 49.73% 44.41%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county
Logo used by Clinton's Virginia campaign

The 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

The Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton of New York, carried Virginia with a 49.73% plurality in the popular vote against businessman Donald Trump of New York, who carried 44.41%, a victory margin of 5.32%. Clinton seemed to benefit from having former Virginia governor Tim Kaine on the ticket. Whereas the national popular vote swung 1.77% Republican from the previous election, Virginia swung 1.44% Democratic.[2] However, due to a higher third-party vote, Clinton's percentage was lower than Obama's in both 2008 and 2012 (although her raw vote total slightly improved from Obama). Virginia was the only former Confederate state won by Clinton.

Conversely, Trump became the first Republican since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to win the presidency without carrying Virginia.[3] Virginia had been a traditionally Democratic-leaning state from the party's founding until 1952. It then became reliably Republican-leaning from 1952 until 2004, after which point it has voted Democratic in every presidential election. This was due largely to migration into counties in Northern Virginia, close to Washington, D.C., which has further tilted these densely populated areas towards the Democratic Party.

Primaries

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

The 108 delegates (95 pledged delegates and 13 super delegates) from Virginia to the Democratic National Convention were allocated in this way. Among the pledged delegates, 62 of them were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district. The 33 at-large delegates were then allocated based on the statewide popular vote.[4]

County results of the Virginia Democratic presidential primary, 2016
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Virginia Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 504,741 64.29%
62
13
75
Bernie Sanders 276,370 35.20%
33
0
33
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,930 0.50%
Uncommitted —
0
1
1
Total 785,041 100% 95 14 109
Source: The Green Papers, Virginia Department of Elections

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Virginia Republican presidential primary

The 49 delegates from Virginia to the Republican National Convention were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote.[5]

Virginia Republican primary, March 1, 2016[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 356,840 34.80% 17 0 17
Marco Rubio 327,918 31.98% 16 0 16
Ted Cruz 171,150 16.69% 8 0 8
John Kasich 97,784 9.54% 5 0 5
Ben Carson 60,228 5.87% 3 0 3
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,645 0.36% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,917 0.28% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,458 0.14% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,102 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 914 0.09% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 653 0.06% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 444 0.04% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 399 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,025,452 100.00% 49 0 49
Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
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Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Henrico County
Commonwealth's Attorney
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Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

Libertarian nomination

[edit]

The 2016 Libertarian Party presidential ticket was former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld for vice president. They earned those nominations at the Libertarian Party 2016 National ConDay weekend.[7]

Green primary

[edit]

The Virginia Green Party held its primary from March 20 through April 3. Party members were able to vote online through an email ballot or through the mail.[8] On April 13, it was announced that Jill Stein had won with 76% of the vote. The state's four delegates were apportioned at the May 28 state meeting.[9]

Virginia primary, April 3, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 35 76% 3
Kent Mesplay 3 6% 1
William Kreml 2 4.1% -
Darryl Cherney 2 3.8% -
Sedinam Curry 1 1.7% -
Write-ins 3 8.4% -
Total 46 100.00% 4

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016 § Virginia

In polling, Hillary Clinton won or tied in every pre-election poll but one. An average of the last three polls showed Clinton ahead of Trump 48% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results.[10]

Voting history

[edit]

Virginia joined the Union in June 1788 and has participated in all elections from 1789 onwards, except 1864 and 1868 (due to its secession from the US due to the American Civil War). Since 1900, Virginia voted Democratic 54.17% of the time and Republican 45.83% of the time. From 1968 to 2004, Virginia voted for the Republican Party candidate. Then, in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the state voted for the Democratic Party. The same trend continued in the 2016 presidential elections.[11]

Clinton had several advantages in Virginia. The first was due in part to her landslide win in the Democratic primary against Senator Bernie Sanders. The second was Virginia has a significant number of African American voters, many of whom backed Clinton in the primary and both of President Barack Obama's wins in the state. The third was the state's growing share of well-educated suburban voters, especially in the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C., who were moving away from the Republican Party in response to Trump being nominated for president. The fourth was Clinton's pick of the state's own US Senator, Tim Kaine, as her vice presidential running mate.[12]

While polls throughout the campaign showed Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by varying margins in Virginia, it was announced on October 13 that the Trump campaign was pulling its resources out of the state, likely ceding to Clinton what was perceived to be a critical battleground state. According to the Trump campaign, the reason for pulling out of Virginia was to compete in more critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which were states he won.[13]

Predictions

[edit]

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Virginia as of election day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[14] Lean D November 6, 2016
CNN[15] Lean D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[16] Likely D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely D November 7, 2016
NBC[18] Likely D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[19] Likely D November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[20] Likely D November 7, 2016
Fox News[21] Lean D November 7, 2016
ABC[22] Lean D November 8, 2016

Results

[edit]
Precinct results:
State senate district results:
2016 United States presidential election in Virginia
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,981,473 49.73% 13
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,769,443 44.41% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Bill Weld 118,274 2.97% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Mindy Finn 54,054 1.35% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 27,638 0.69% 0
Independent (write-in)
-
-
 33,749 0.85% 0
Totals 3,984,631 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 71.30%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections Archived December 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

By city and county

[edit]
County/City Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Evan McMullin
Independent 		Jill Stein
Green 		Various candidates
Write-ins 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Accomack 6,740 42.61% 8,583 54.26% 264 1.67% 112 0.71% 66 0.42% 53 0.34% −1,843 −11.65% 15,818
Albemarle 33,345 58.78% 19,259 33.95% 2,105 3.71% 1,059 1.87% 450 0.79% 508 0.90% 14,086 24.83% 56,726
Alexandria 57,242 75.56% 13,285 17.83% 2,020 2.67% 1,398 1.85% 592 0.78% 1,225 1.62% 43,957 58.02% 75,762
Alleghany 2,166 29.57% 4,874 66.54% 164 2.24% 69 0.94% 35 0.48% 17 0.23% −2,708 −36.97% 7,325
Amelia 2,128 30.23% 4,708 66.88% 129 1.83% 41 0.58% 11 0.16% 23 0.33% −2,580 −36.65% 7,040
Amherst 5,057 32.85% 9,719 63.13% 317 2.06% 159 1.03% 65 0.42% 79 0.51% −4,662 −30.28% 15,396
Appomattox 2,023 25.30% 5,715 71.46% 136 1.70% 50 0.63% 31 0.39% 42 0.53% −3,692 −46.16% 7,997
Arlington 92,016 75.83% 20,186 16.64% 3,827 3.15% 2,594 2.14% 819 0.67% 1,897 1.56% 71,830 59.19% 121,339
Augusta 8,177 22.50% 26,163 71.99% 1,099 3.02% 502 1.38% 200 0.55% 202 0.56% −17,986 −49.49% 36,343
Bath 603 26.76% 1,548 68.71% 56 2.49% 22 0.98% 15 0.67% 9 0.40% −945 −41.95% 2,253
Bedford 9,768 22.97% 30,659 72.10% 1,074 2.53% 627 1.47% 176 0.41% 221 0.52% −20,891 −49.13% 42,525
Bland 453 14.43% 2,573 81.97% 61 1.94% 21 0.67% 17 0.54% 14 0.45% −2,120 −67.54% 3,139
Botetourt 4,494 23.98% 13,375 71.38% 497 2.65% 185 0.99% 101 0.54% 87 0.46% −8,881 −47.40% 18,739
Bristol 1,835 26.11% 4,892 69.62% 136 1.94% 64 0.91% 50 0.71% 50 0.71% −3,057 −43.51% 7,027
Brunswick 4,481 58.43% 3,046 39.72% 72 0.94% 30 0.39% 25 0.33% 15 0.20% 1,435 18.71% 7,669
Buchanan 1,721 18.61% 7,296 78.90% 122 1.32% 59 0.64% 24 0.26% 25 0.27% −5,575 −60.29% 9,247
Buckingham 3,128 42.91% 3,950 54.19% 102 1.40% 58 0.80% 27 0.37% 24 0.33% −822 −11.28% 7,289
Buena Vista 693 28.79% 1,430 59.41% 83 3.45% 174 7.23% 13 0.54% 14 0.58% −737 −30.62% 2,407
Campbell 6,664 24.20% 19,551 71.00% 665 2.42% 419 1.52% 102 0.37% 134 0.49% −12,887 −46.80% 27,535
Caroline 6,432 45.14% 7,147 50.16% 368 2.58% 154 1.04% 99 0.69% 48 0.34% −715 −5.02% 14,248
Carroll 2,559 18.74% 10,663 78.09% 220 1.61% 88 0.64% 69 0.51% 56 0.41% −8,104 −59.35% 13,655
Charles City 2,496 60.77% 1,476 35.94% 67 1.63% 39 0.95% 15 0.37% 14 0.34% 1,020 24.83% 4,107
Charlotte 2,155 37.11% 3,479 59.91% 111 1.91% 38 0.65% 11 0.19% 13 0.22% −1,324 −22.80% 5,807
Charlottesville 17,901 79.68% 2,960 13.17% 785 3.49% 383 1.70% 230 1.02% 208 0.93% 14,941 66.51% 22,467
Chesapeake 52,627 46.71% 54,047 47.97% 3,458 3.07% 1,146 1.02% 698 0.62% 686 0.61% −1,440 −1.26% 112,662
Chesterfield 81,074 45.97% 85,045 48.22% 6,247 3.54% 2,004 1.14% 990 0.56% 1,002 0.57% −3,971 −2.25% 176,362
Clarke 3,051 37.15% 4,661 56.75% 261 3.18% 111 1.35% 55 0.67% 74 0.90% −1,610 −19.60% 8,213
Colonial Heights 2,367 27.99% 5,681 67.18% 247 2.92% 88 1.04% 44 0.52% 30 0.35% −3,314 −39.19% 8,457
Covington 914 38.37% 1,349 56.63% 73 3.06% 25 1.05% 8 0.34% 13 0.55% −435 −18.26% 2,382
Craig 541 19.38% 2,140 76.68% 54 1.93% 30 1.07% 20 0.72% 6 0.21% −1,599 −57.30% 2,791
Culpeper 7,759 34.92% 13,349 60.08% 584 2.63% 242 1.09% 176 0.79% 108 0.49% −5,590 −25.16% 22,218
Cumberland 2,036 41.50% 2,697 54.97% 95 1.94% 32 0.65% 24 0.49% 22 0.45% −661 −13.47% 4,906
Danville 11,059 58.39% 7,303 38.56% 315 1.66% 117 0.62% 73 0.39% 73 0.39% 3,756 19.83% 18,940
Dickenson 1,335 20.73% 4,932 76.58% 81 1.26% 43 0.67% 14 0.22% 35 0.54% −3,597 −55.85% 6,440
Dinwiddie 5,765 42.47% 7,447 54.86% 196 1.44% 79 0.58% 46 0.34% 42 0.31% −1,682 −12.39% 13,575
Emporia 1,530 64.67% 789 33.35% 26 1.10% 8 0.34% 10 0.42% 3 0.13% 741 31.32% 2,366
Essex 2,542 47.32% 2,657 49.46% 113 2.10% 25 0.47% 18 0.34% 17 0.32% −115 −2.14% 5,372
Fairfax 355,133 64.43% 157,710 28.61% 15,664 2.84% 10,369 1.88% 4,477 0.81% 7,830 1.42% 197,423 35.82% 551,183
Fairfax City 7,367 61.25% 3,702 30.78% 427 3.55% 263 2.19% 107 0.89% 162 1.35% 3,665 30.47% 12,028
Falls Church 5,819 75.02% 1,324 17.07% 237 3.06% 228 2.94% 70 0.90% 79 1.02% 4,495 57.95% 7,757
Fauquier 12,971 34.63% 22,127 59.07% 1,191 3.18% 597 1.59% 267 0.71% 307 0.82% −9,156 −24.44% 37,460
Floyd 2,300 28.57% 5,293 65.75% 185 2.30% 91 1.13% 107 1.33% 74 0.92% −2,993 −37.18% 8,050
Fluvanna 5,760 42.38% 7,025 51.68% 425 3.13% 218 1.60% 80 0.59% 84 0.62% −1,265 −9.30% 13,592
Franklin 7,257 26.91% 18,569 68.85% 602 2.23% 274 1.02% 115 0.43% 154 0.57% −11,312 −41.94% 26,971
Franklin City 2,519 62.03% 1,421 34.99% 72 1.77% 15 0.37% 16 0.39% 18 0.44% 1,098 27.04% 4,061
Frederick 11,932 29.51% 26,083 64.50% 1,280 3.17% 543 1.34% 325 0.80% 277 0.68% −14,151 −34.99% 40,440
Fredericksburg 6,707 59.58% 3,744 33.26% 389 3.46% 189 1.68% 137 1.22% 91 0.81% 2,963 26.32% 11,257
Galax 681 28.66% 1,603 67.47% 45 1.89% 28 1.18% 7 0.29% 12 0.51% −922 −38.81% 2,376
Giles 1,950 23.75% 5,910 71.97% 201 2.45% 78 0.95% 39 0.47% 34 0.41% −3,960 −48.22% 8,212
Gloucester 5,404 27.54% 13,096 66.75% 693 3.53% 213 1.09% 134 0.68% 79 0.40% −7,692 −39.21% 19,619
Goochland 4,889 34.83% 8,384 59.73% 474 3.38% 145 1.03% 54 0.38% 91 0.65% −3,495 −24.90% 14,037
Grayson 1,407 19.31% 5,592 76.76% 110 1.51% 93 1.28% 55 0.75% 28 0.38% −4,185 −57.45% 7,285
Greene 2,924 30.44% 5,945 61.88% 406 4.23% 167 1.74% 66 0.69% 99 1.03% −3,021 −31.44% 9,607
Greensville 2,558 58.63% 1,737 39.81% 50 1.15% 12 0.28% 6 0.14% 0 0.00% 821 18.82% 4,363
Halifax 6,897 40.58% 9,704 57.10% 237 1.39% 77 0.45% 44 0.26% 35 0.21% −2,807 −16.52% 16,994
Hampton 41,312 66.34% 17,902 28.75% 1,658 2.66% 551 0.88% 474 0.76% 380 0.61% 23,410 37.59% 62,277
Hanover 19,382 30.90% 39,630 63.18% 2,310 3.68% 741 1.18% 314 0.50% 346 0.55% −20,248 −32.28% 62,723
Harrisonburg 10,212 56.77% 6,262 34.81% 810 4.50% 310 1.72% 255 1.42% 138 0.77% 3,950 21.96% 17,987
Henrico 93,935 57.44% 59,857 36.60% 5,657 3.46% 1,997 1.22% 1,081 0.66% 1,009 0.62% 34,078 20.84% 163,536
Henry 8,198 34.03% 15,208 63.13% 378 1.57% 147 0.61% 98 0.41% 62 0.26% −7,010 −29.10% 24,091
Highland 371 26.67% 958 68.87% 33 2.37% 21 1.51% 8 0.58% 0 0.00% −587 −42.20% 1,391
Hopewell 4,724 52.44% 3,885 43.13% 212 2.35% 91 1.01% 58 0.64% 38 0.42% 839 9.31% 9,008
Isle of Wight 7,881 37.40% 12,204 57.91% 589 2.79% 207 0.98% 81 0.38% 113 0.54% −4,323 −20.51% 21,075
James City 19,105 44.26% 21,306 49.35% 1,395 3.23% 686 1.59% 281 0.65% 396 0.92% −2,201 −5.09% 43,169
King and Queen 1,468 39.78% 2,099 56.88% 75 2.03% 13 0.35% 18 0.49% 17 0.46% −631 −17.10% 3,690
King George 4,007 33.25% 7,341 60.92% 367 3.05% 177 1.47% 83 0.69% 75 0.62% −3,334 −27.67% 12,050
King William 2,760 30.18% 5,975 65.33% 261 2.85% 71 0.78% 44 0.48% 35 0.38% −3,215 −35.15% 9,146
Lancaster 2,869 43.18% 3,523 53.02% 141 2.12% 41 0.62% 35 0.53% 36 0.54% −654 −9.84% 6,645
Lee 1,627 17.31% 7,543 80.25% 106 1.13% 45 0.48% 33 0.35% 45 0.48% −5,916 −62.94% 9,399
Lexington 1,514 61.42% 766 31.08% 92 3.73% 56 2.27% 20 0.81% 17 0.69% 748 30.34% 2,465
Loudoun 100,795 55.06% 69,949 38.21% 5,674 3.10% 3,413 1.86% 1,316 0.72% 1,903 1.04% 30,846 16.85% 183,050
Louisa 6,212 35.27% 10,528 59.78% 505 2.87% 163 0.93% 124 0.70% 80 0.45% −4,316 −24.51% 17,612
Lunenburg 2,227 39.87% 3,204 57.36% 88 1.58% 32 0.57% 25 0.45% 10 0.18% −977 −17.49% 5,586
Lynchburg 14,792 41.48% 17,982 50.43% 1,379 3.87% 998 2.80% 208 0.58% 298 0.84% −3,190 −8.95% 35,657
Madison 2,203 31.57% 4,419 63.32% 184 2.64% 87 1.25% 43 0.62% 43 0.62% −2,216 −31.75% 6,979
Manassas 8,423 54.66% 5,953 38.63% 488 3.17% 246 1.60% 147 0.95% 154 1.00% 2,470 16.03% 15,411
Manassas Park 3,204 61.24% 1,733 33.12% 162 3.10% 57 1.09% 45 0.86% 31 0.59% 1,471 28.12% 5,232
Martinsville 3,533 59.81% 2,149 36.38% 114 1.93% 51 0.86% 29 0.49% 31 0.52% 1,384 23.43% 5,907
Mathews 1,563 29.43% 3,517 66.22% 147 2.77% 36 0.68% 31 0.58% 17 0.32% −1,954 −36.79% 5,311
Mecklenburg 6,285 42.05% 8,288 55.46% 239 1.60% 54 0.36% 30 0.20% 49 0.33% −2,003 −13.41% 14,945
Middlesex 2,108 35.03% 3,670 60.99% 140 2.33% 50 0.83% 33 0.55% 16 0.27% −1,562 −25.96% 6,017
Montgomery 20,021 46.53% 19,459 45.22% 2,026 4.71% 798 1.85% 401 0.93% 326 0.76% 562 1.31% 43,031
Nelson 3,689 44.39% 4,154 49.98% 244 2.94% 95 1.14% 81 0.97% 48 0.58% −465 −5.59% 8,311
New Kent 3,546 28.99% 8,118 66.36% 348 2.84% 102 0.83% 52 0.43% 67 0.55% −4,572 −37.37% 12,233
Newport News 45,618 60.31% 25,468 33.67% 2,531 3.35% 931 1.23% 591 0.78% 498 0.66% 20,150 26.64% 75,637
Norfolk 57,023 68.39% 21,552 25.85% 2,717 3.26% 761 0.91% 797 0.96% 535 0.64% 35,471 42.54% 83,385
Northampton 3,255 52.77% 2,686 43.55% 116 1.88% 37 0.60% 40 0.65% 34 0.55% 569 9.22% 6,168
Northumberland 2,852 38.56% 4,302 58.16% 136 1.84% 51 0.69% 21 0.28% 35 0.47% −1,450 −19.60% 7,397
Norton 383 26.23% 1,021 69.93% 24 1.64% 22 1.51% 6 0.41% 4 0.27% −638 −43.70% 1,460
Nottoway 2,829 41.95% 3,712 55.04% 116 1.72% 35 0.52% 25 0.37% 27 0.40% −883 −13.09% 6,744
Orange 5,957 34.50% 10,521 60.93% 399 2.31% 178 1.03% 116 0.67% 96 0.56% −4,564 −26.43% 17,267
Page 2,514 23.41% 7,831 72.91% 198 1.84% 89 0.83% 38 0.35% 70 0.65% −5,317 −49.50% 10,740
Patrick 1,768 20.74% 6,454 75.71% 147 1.72% 71 0.83% 49 0.57% 36 0.42% −4,686 −54.97% 8,525
Petersburg 12,021 87.20% 1,451 10.53% 139 1.01% 58 0.42% 67 0.49% 50 0.36% 10,570 76.67% 13,786
Pittsylvania 9,199 29.11% 21,554 68.21% 442 1.40% 202 0.64% 106 0.34% 95 0.30% −12,355 −39.10% 31,598
Poquoson 1,601 22.31% 5,092 70.95% 307 4.28% 76 1.06% 43 0.60% 58 0.81% −3,491 −48.64% 7,177
Portsmouth 28,497 65.87% 12,795 29.58% 1,096 2.53% 331 0.77% 323 0.75% 219 0.51% 15,702 36.29% 43,261
Powhatan 4,060 24.04% 11,885 70.38% 639 3.78% 151 0.89% 73 0.43% 80 0.47% −7,825 −46.34% 16,888
Prince Edward 4,591 50.21% 4,101 44.85% 286 3.13% 85 0.93% 53 0.58% 27 0.30% 490 5.36% 9,143
Prince George 6,419 39.66% 9,157 56.58% 374 2.31% 120 0.74% 70 0.43% 44 0.27% −2,738 −16.92% 16,184
Prince William 113,144 57.60% 71,721 36.51% 5,374 2.74% 2,995 1.52% 1,497 0.76% 1,711 0.87% 41,423 21.09% 196,442
Pulaski 4,172 27.51% 10,322 68.06% 351 2.31% 171 1.13% 107 0.71% 42 0.28% −6,150 −40.55% 15,165
Radford 2,925 48.09% 2,638 43.37% 301 4.95% 113 1.86% 58 0.95% 47 0.77% 287 4.72% 6,082
Rappahannock 1,747 38.97% 2,539 56.64% 93 2.07% 42 0.94% 36 0.80% 26 0.58% −792 −17.67% 4,483
Richmond 1,347 36.79% 2,213 60.45% 57 1.56% 21 0.57% 13 0.36% 10 0.27% −866 −23.66% 3,661
Richmond City 81,259 78.58% 15,581 15.07% 3,617 3.50% 1,124 1.09% 1,134 1.10% 691 0.67% 65,678 63.51% 103,406
Roanoke 17,200 33.41% 31,408 61.00% 1,620 3.15% 678 1.32% 286 0.56% 297 0.58% −14,208 −27.59% 51,489
Roanoke City 22,286 56.47% 14,789 37.47% 1,316 3.33% 413 1.05% 411 1.04% 251 0.64% 7,497 19.00% 39,466
Rockbridge 3,508 32.50% 6,680 61.88% 271 2.51% 171 1.58% 66 0.61% 99 0.92% −3,172 −29.38% 10,795
Rockingham 9,366 24.98% 25,990 69.33% 1,088 2.90% 610 1.63% 208 0.55% 225 0.60% −16,624 −44.35% 37,487
Russell 2,330 19.03% 9,521 77.75% 190 1.55% 104 0.85% 58 0.47% 43 0.35% −7,191 −58.72% 12,246
Salem 4,202 34.37% 7,226 59.11% 442 3.62% 158 1.29% 92 0.75% 105 0.86% −3,024 −24.74% 12,225
Scott 1,581 15.65% 8,247 81.65% 142 1.41% 53 0.52% 39 0.39% 38 0.38% −6,666 −66.00% 10,100
Shenandoah 5,273 25.71% 14,094 68.72% 556 2.71% 286 1.39% 149 0.73% 150 0.73% −8,821 −43.01% 20,508
Smyth 2,665 20.67% 9,750 75.64% 258 2.00% 113 0.88% 53 0.41% 51 0.40% −7,085 −54.97% 12,890
Southampton 3,595 40.52% 5,035 56.75% 156 1.76% 62 0.70% 24 0.27% 0 0.00% −1,440 −16.23% 8,872
Spotsylvania 24,207 38.70% 34,623 55.35% 1,910 3.05% 900 1.44% 450 0.72% 459 0.73% −10,416 −16.65% 62,549
Stafford 27,908 42.33% 33,868 51.37% 2,140 3.25% 1,006 1.53% 488 0.74% 524 0.79% −5,960 −9.04% 65,934
Staunton 5,333 47.38% 5,133 45.61% 419 3.72% 159 1.41% 109 0.97% 102 0.91% 200 1.77% 11,255
Suffolk 23,280 53.84% 18,006 41.64% 1,098 2.54% 436 1.01% 223 0.52% 197 0.46% 5,274 12.20% 43,240
Surry 2,272 53.74% 1,819 43.02% 81 1.92% 29 0.69% 17 0.40% 10 0.24% 453 10.72% 4,228
Sussex 2,879 57.08% 2,055 40.74% 63 1.25% 22 0.44% 22 0.44% 3 0.06% 824 16.34% 5,044
Tazewell 2,895 15.59% 15,168 81.70% 260 1.40% 127 0.68% 53 0.29% 63 0.34% −12,273 −66.11% 18,566
Virginia Beach 91,032 44.84% 98,224 48.38% 8,255 4.07% 2,237 1.10% 1,737 0.86% 1,534 0.76% −7,192 −3.54% 203,019
Warren 5,169 28.80% 11,773 65.58% 495 2.76% 222 1.24% 149 0.83% 143 0.80% −6,604 −36.78% 17,951
Washington 5,553 21.48% 19,320 74.75% 537 2.08% 229 0.89% 93 0.36% 114 0.44% −13,767 −53.27% 25,846
Waynesboro 3,764 40.90% 4,801 52.16% 336 3.65% 145 1.58% 74 0.80% 84 0.91% −1,037 −11.26% 9,204
Westmoreland 3,836 44.74% 4,448 51.88% 157 1.83% 50 0.58% 40 0.47% 43 0.50% −612 −7.14% 8,574
Williamsburg 5,206 68.27% 1,925 25.24% 231 3.03% 100 1.31% 84 1.10% 80 1.05% 3,281 43.03% 7,626
Winchester 5,164 48.42% 4,790 44.91% 400 3.75% 128 1.20% 99 0.93% 84 0.81% 374 3.51% 10,665
Wise 2,701 17.81% 12,086 79.71% 182 1.20% 65 0.43% 77 0.51% 52 0.34% −9,385 −61.90% 15,163
Wythe 2,770 20.78% 10,046 75.38% 285 2.14% 107 0.80% 49 0.37% 71 0.53% −7,276 −54.60% 13,328
York 12,999 38.11% 18,837 55.22% 1,186 3.48% 549 1.61% 252 0.74% 290 0.85% −5,838 −17.11% 34,113
Totals 1,981,473 49.75% 1,769,443 44.43% 118,274 2.97% 54,054 1.36% 27,638 0.69% 31,870 0.80% 212,030 5.32% 3,982,752
County and Independent City Flips:
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

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Trump won 6 of 11 congressional districts, while Clinton won 5, including one held by a Republican.[23]

District Clinton Trump Representative
1st 41% 53% Rob Wittman
2nd 45% 48% Scott Rigell
Scott Taylor
3rd 63% 32% Robert C. Scott
4th 58% 37% Randy Forbes
Donald McEachin
5th 42% 53% Robert Hurt
Tom Garrett Jr.
6th 35% 59% Bob Goodlatte
7th 44% 50% Dave Brat
8th 72% 21% Don Beyer
9th 27% 68% Morgan Griffith
10th 52% 42% Barbara Comstock
11th 66% 27% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

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Virginia was the only one of the eleven states that composed the Confederate States of America to vote Democratic in this election. This is a reversal from 1976, when it was the only state that had been part of the Confederacy to vote Republican. Virginia was also the only state Hillary Clinton won which was never carried by her husband Bill Clinton in either of his runs for president in 1992 and 1996 (conversely, 11 states voted for Bill Clinton twice that were lost by Hillary Clinton[a]). Virginia was one of eleven states (and the District of Columbia) to vote more Democratic than in 2012.[b] This was only the third time since Reconstruction that Virginia voted for a different candidate than Florida, after 1976 and 1996, and the first in which Virginia voted Democratic while Florida voted Republican. This would happen again four years later.

Trump was the first ever Republican to win without Harrisonburg, Manassas, and Manassas Park. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Prince William County and Hopewell since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Loudoun County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, and the first to do so without carrying Henrico County, Montgomery County, Staunton, and Winchester since Coolidge in 1924.

Voter demographics

[edit]

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 2942 total respondents.[24]

2016 Virginia presidential election (CNN)[24]
Demographic subgroup Clinton Trump % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 85 11 26
Moderates 58 36 40
Conservatives 12 83 33
Party
Democrats 92 6 40
Republicans 6 88 33
Independents 43 48 26
Age
18–24 years old 51 38 9
25–29 years old 57 34 9
30–39 years old 55 37 16
40–49 years old 51 45 21
50–64 years old 45 52 30
65 and older 45 52 16
Gender
Men 43 52 47
Women 56 39 53
Marital status
Married 44 52 59
Unmarried 54 36 41
Marital status by gender
Married men 40 56 29
Married women 47 48 30
Unmarried men 46 42 17
Unmarried women 61 32 23
Race/ethnicity
White 35 59 67
Black 88 9 21
Latino 65 30 6
Asian N/A N/A 3
Other N/A N/A 3
Gender by race
White men 29 65 32
White women 41 54 35
Black men 84 13 9
Black women 91 7 12
Latino men (of any race) N/A N/A 3
Latino women (of any race) N/A N/A 3
Other racial/ethnic groups 62 30 6
Education
Never attended college 44 52 14
Some college education 44 51 31
College graduate 51 44 31
Advanced degree 61 33 23
Education by race
White college graduated 45 49 38
White no college degree 24 71 29
Non-white college graduates 78 17 16
Non-white no college degree 81 16 16
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 50 44 21
White women without college degrees 29 66 15
White men with college degrees 40 54 17
White men without college degrees 19 75 15
Non-white 79 16 33
Income
Under $50K 53 41 30
$50K-$100K 47 49 30
$100K or more 51 44 40
Issue regarded as most important
Foreign policy 67 26 11
Immigration 27 68 10
Economy 52 41 56
Terrorism 45 53 20
Region
D.C. Suburbs 68 27 19
Northern Virginia exurbs 48 46 17
Central/ west Virginia 31 64 21
Richmond/ east 50 44 25
Tidewater 53 42 18
Area type
Urban 59 34 30
Suburban 47 48 51
Rural 41 56 19

See also

[edit]

Notes

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  1. ^ Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wisconsin
  2. ^ The other ten are Arizona, California, Georgia, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Maryland, Texas, and Utah

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on October 18, 2018. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  2. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Data - National". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  3. ^ "Historical U.S. Presidential Elections 1789-2016". 270towin.com. Retrieved March 9, 2019.
  4. ^ "Virginia Democratic Delegation 2016". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  5. ^ "Virginia Republican Delegation 2016". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  6. ^ "2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions : Virginia Republican". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 13, 2021.
  7. ^ "Libertarian Party Nominates Gov Gary Johnson Gov Bill Weld". Lpva.com. May 30, 2016. Archived from the original on September 11, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  8. ^ "GPVA Presidential Preference Primary 2016". Green Party of Virginia. March 12, 2016. Archived from the original on March 13, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
  9. ^ "GREEN PARTY OF VIRGINIA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". Green Party of Virginia. April 13, 2016. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
  10. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton".
  11. ^ "Virginia Presidential Election 2016 Results LIVE Updates". Usaelections-2016.com. October 13, 2016. Archived from the original on October 13, 2016. Retrieved October 13, 2016.
  12. ^ Cohn, Nate (July 22, 2016). "If Tim Kaine Can Help Clinton in Virginia Even a Bit, It's a Big Deal". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 9, 2019.
  13. ^ "Trump's campaign is giving up on Virginia". NBC News.
  14. ^ "Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push". Los Angeles Times.
  15. ^ David Chalian. "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN.
  16. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  17. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org.
  18. ^ "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News.
  19. ^ "ElectoralVote". Electoral-vote.com.
  20. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Realclearpolitics.com.
  21. ^ "Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News Channel. November 7, 2016.
  22. ^ "The Final 15: Latest Polls in Swing States". ABC News. November 8, 2016.
  23. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  24. ^ a b "2016 Virginia Exit Polls". CNN Politics. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
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