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2015 Canadian federal election

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2015 Canadian federal election
← 2011 October 19, 2015 (2015-10-19) 2019 →
338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout68.3%[1] (Increase7.2pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Justin Trudeau APEC 2015 (cropped).jpg
Stephen Harper 2014 (cropped).jpg
Thomas Mulcair 2015 (cropped).jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Stephen Harper Tom Mulcair
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 14, 2013 March 20, 2004 March 24, 2012
Leader's seat Papineau Calgary Heritage Outremont
Last election 34 seats, 18.91% 166 seats, 39.62% 103 seats, 30.63%
Seats before 36 159 95
Seats won 184 99 44
Seat change Increase148 Decrease60 Decrease51
Popular vote 6,942,937 5,613,633 3,469,368
Percentage 39.47% 31.91% 19.72%
Swing Increase20.56pp Decrease7.71pp Decrease10.91pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Gilles Duceppe 2011 (cropped).jpg
Elizabeth May 2014 (cropped).jpg
Leader Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May
Party Bloc Québécois Green
Leader since June 10, 2015 August 27, 2006
Leader's seat Ran in Laurier—Sainte-Marie (lost) Saanich—Gulf Islands
Last election 4 seats, 6.04% 1 seat, 3.91%
Seats before 2 2
Seats won 10 1
Seat change Increase8 Decrease1
Popular vote 821,144 602,933
Percentage 4.67% 3.43%
Swing Decrease1.38pp Decrease0.49pp
Prime Minister before election

Stephen Harper
Conservative

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

The 2015 Canadian federal election held on October 19, 2015, saw the Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, win 184 seats, allowing it to form a majority government with Trudeau becoming the next prime minister.

The election was held to elect members to the House of Commons of the 42nd Canadian Parliament. In keeping with the maximum four year term under a 2007 amendment to the Canada Elections Act, the writs of election for the 2015 election were issued by Governor General David Johnston on August 4. The ensuing campaign was one of the longest in Canadian history.[2] It was also the first time since the 1979 election that a prime minister attempted to remain in office into a fourth consecutive Parliament and the first time since the 1980 election that someone attempted to win a fourth term of any kind as prime minister.

The Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, won 184 seats, allowing it to form a majority government with Trudeau becoming the next prime minister.[3] Trudeau and the rest of his cabinet were sworn in on November 4, 2015.[4] The Conservative Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper, won 99 seats, becoming the Official Opposition after nearly a decade on the government benches. The New Democratic Party, led by Tom Mulcair, won 44 seats, becoming the third-largest party in the House of Commons, after having formed the Official Opposition following the 2011 election.[5] The Bloc Québécois won 10 seats, the Green Party won 1 seat, and Strength in Democracy lost all its seats.

The Liberal Party's increase of 148 seats from the previous election was the largest-ever numerical increase by a party in a Canadian election. Prior to the campaign, the Liberals had held only 36 seats—the fewest seats ever held at dissolution by any federal party that won the following election. The Liberals also became the first federal party in Canadian history to win a majority of seats without having been either the governing party or the Official Opposition in the previous parliament, and this was only the second time a party went from having the third-most seats to the most seats (the first being in 1925). It was the second largest number of seats won in a federal election for the Liberals, the best being 191 in 1949. The election also had the highest voter turnout since 1993.[1] Every party represented in the House of Commons except the Liberal Party recorded a decrease in its popular vote share. There was an increase in voter turnout among all age groups. The largest was among eligible voters aged 18 to 24, which increased 18.3 points, to 57.1%. Elections Canada reported that this was the biggest increase in turnout among this age group since it began making demographic turnout estimates.[6]

Following the election, Harper conceded defeat to Trudeau and resigned as leader of the Conservative Party.[7] Gilles Duceppe resigned as leader of the Bloc Québécois shortly after the election on October 22, 2015. Tom Mulcair announced his intention to remain leader of the NDP, but was forced to step down in October 2017, after losing a party vote on his leadership in the spring of 2016.

Background

[edit]
See also: Timeline of the 2015 Canadian federal election and 41st Canadian Parliament

The 2011 federal election resulted in the continuation of the incumbent Conservative government headed by Stephen Harper, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) became Official Opposition and the Liberal Party became the third party. The Bloc Québécois won four seats and the Green Party won one seat. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe resigned shortly after failing to win their own ridings. The Bloc Québécois lost official party status by failing to attain the minimum seats needed (12).

Bob Rae was chosen as interim leader of the Liberal Party. In July 2011 Jack Layton, suffering from cancer, temporarily stepped down as leader of the NDP because of illness, indicating his intention to return for the reconvening of Parliament in September. Weeks later Layton died of cancer and was given a state funeral. In March 2012 Tom Mulcair was elected leader of the New Democratic Party. In April 2013 Justin Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberal Party. Bloc Québécois leader Daniel Paillé stepped down in December 2013 and was eventually replaced in June 2014 by Mario Beaulieu, who in turn was later replaced in June 2015[8] by Duceppe. In late 2014, MPs Jean-François Larose of the NDP and Jean-François Fortin of the Bloc formed the new political party Strength in Democracy.

As set forth in the Fair Representation Act,[9] the number of seats in the House of Commons to be contested in the 42nd Canadian federal election was 338, an increase of 30 seats from the 308 seats comprising the House of Commons of Canada of the 41st Parliament of Canada, at its dissolution.[10]

Prime Minister Stephen Harper requested writs of election for a federal general election from Governor General David Johnston on August 2. The official proclamations were issued on August 4.[11] The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date Canada Elections Act.[12] At 11 weeks, the campaign was the longest in modern Canadian history.[13]

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, the number of electoral districts was increased to 338, with additional seats based on population assigned to Alberta (6), British Columbia (6), Ontario (15), and Quebec (3).[14]

Campaign slogans

[edit]
Party English French Translation of French (unofficial)
Conservative Party "Proven leadership for a strong Canada."[15]
"Safer Canada/Stronger Economy"[16]
"Protect our Economy"[17] 		"Un leadership qui a fait ses preuves pour une économie plus forte" "Leadership that has proven itself for a stronger economy"
New Democratic Party "Ready for Change."[18] "Ensemble pour le changement" "Together for change"
Liberal Party "Real Change (Now)."[19][20] "Changer ensemble (maintenant)" "Change together (now)"
Bloc Québécois — "Des gains pour le Québec"[21]
"On a tout à gagner" 		"Gains for Quebec"
"We have everything to win"
Green Party "A Canada That Works. Together."[22] "Prendre l'avenir en main" "Take the future in hand"
Strength in Democracy "Empowering our regions, uniting our strengths."[23] "Allier les forces de nos régions" "Combine the strengths of our regions"

Election campaign

[edit]

Leaders' debates

[edit]
See also: Canadian leaders' debates

Traditionally, party leaders participated in at least two nationally televised debates during the federal election – at least one each in English and French. These debates were produced by a consortium of Canada's major television networks.[24] In May 2015, the Conservatives said they would not participate in the consortium debates and instead would take part in as many as five independently staged debates in the run-up to the fall federal election.[24] Ultimately, the Conservatives agreed to participate in a French-language debate organized by the consortium of broadcasters as one of their five debates.[25] The New Democratic Party confirmed that Tom Mulcair would accept every debate where the prime minister was present. The NDP had previously confirmed its intention to participate in both of the consortium debates before Stephen Harper withdrew[26][27] but ultimately only participated in the French language consortium debate which included the Conservatives.[25] Liberal leader Justin Trudeau attended the Maclean's, Globe and Mail, and French consortium debates; and the Liberals confirmed he would attend the other debates.[27][28][29][30][31] The Bloc Québécois attended the French language consortium debate and confirmed its attendance at the French-language TVA debate. The Green Party attended the Maclean's and French language consortium debates, and confirmed its intention to participate in the English language consortium debate.[27][30][32][33] Strength in Democracy, which had the same number of seats in the House of Commons at dissolution as the Greens and Bloc Québécois, were not invited to participate in any of the televised debates. The leaders of the party objected to their exclusion and launched a petition demanding that all parties represented in Parliament be invited to the debates.[34] Other minor parties without representation in the House of Commons were not invited to participate in any of the televised debates.

Televised debates
Subject Participants Date Organizer Moderator Location Notes
General Harper, May, Mulcair, Trudeau August 6[35] Rogers Media (Maclean's)[36] Paul Wells Toronto The debate included live translations into French, Italian, Mandarin, Cantonese and Punjabi. Aired live on City stations (English), CPAC (French), and Omni Television stations (all other languages); streamed live at the Maclean's website and all networks' websites, Facebook and YouTube; and on Rogers Media news radio stations.[37]
Economy Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau[28][31] September 17[31] The Globe and Mail and Google Canada[28] David Walmsley Calgary The first half of the 90-minute debate covered five central themes on the economy: jobs, energy and the environment, infrastructure, housing and taxation. The second half consisted of follow-up questions and questions sent in by voters. Aired live nationwide on CPAC in both official languages with an additional English feed in Ontario on CHCH,[38] streamed live on The Globe and Mail's website, and distributed on YouTube. Uninvited Green Party leader Elizabeth May answered questions on Twitter live during the debate at an event in Victoria, British Columbia.[39]
General Duceppe, Harper, May, Mulcair, Trudeau[25] September 24[25] Consortium (CBC/Radio-Canada, CTV, Global, Télé-Québec) and La Presse[25][27][40] Anne-Marie Dussault Montreal The debate included live translation into English. Aired live in French on Ici Radio-Canada Télé and Télé-Québec stations, and participant networks' websites; and in English on CBC News Network, CTV News Channel, and participant networks' websites.[33]
Foreign Policy Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau[25] September 28[25] Aurea Foundation[41] and Facebook Canada[42] Rudyard Griffiths Toronto Bilingual[25] debate on Canada's foreign policy hosted as part of the foundation's regular Munk Debates.[29][43] The debate consisted of six 12-minute segments, with two leaders debating for the first seven minutes and the third leader brought in to the debate for the final five.[43] Aired on CPAC in both official languages with an additional English feed in Ontario on CHCH,[44] streamed live on the Munk Debates website, and distributed on Facebook.[42]
General Duceppe, Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau[45] October 2[45] Quebecor Media (TVA) Pierre Bruneau Montreal The debate focused on three themes: the economy, national security and Canada's place in the world, and social policies; the format consisted of six rounds of four-minute debate between two leaders, with an open debate section at the end of each theme.[46] Aired live in French on TVA stations, Le Canal Nouvelles, and streamed on the TVA Nouvelles website;[46] Aired with simultaneous interpretation to English on CPAC.[47]

Controversies

[edit]

The second Canadian federal election to significantly incorporate social media, the 2015 campaign was notable for the rise of new avenues of scrutiny for potential candidates.[48] A number of damaging revelations for each of the major political parties late in the campaign led to calls for increased vetting amongst political strategists, academics and outside observers.[49][50][51]

Party Description
Conservative
  • August 7, 2015: Hochelaga candidate Augustin Ali Kitoko was removed as a candidate after sharing a Facebook photo album from New Democrat leader Tom Mulcair.[52]
  • August 21, 2015: Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie candidate Gilles Guibord was no longer a candidate after a number of online comments on Le Journal de Montréal were uncovered, including blaming First Nations for not integrating into European culture, claiming the French, not the Mohawks, have ancestral rights to Quebec, and speaking about man's "authority over women."[53]
  • August 24, 2015: Ahuntsic-Cartierville candidate Wiliam Moughrabi deleted his Facebook account after violent and sexist posts were discovered.[54]
  • August 25, 2015: Joliette candidate Soheil Eid apologized after comparing New Democrat leader Tom Mulcair's statements regarding the Energy East pipeline project to Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels by quoting "Mentez mentez, il en restera toujours quelque chose" ("Lie lie and something will always remain").[55]
  • September 6, 2015: Scarborough—Rouge Park candidate Jerry Bance was dropped from the party after a video from CBC's Marketplace surfaced showing an appliance repairman named Jerry urinating into a mug in a client's kitchen. It was later discovered that it was Bance himself.[56] It became a popular meme on Twitter under the hashtag #peegate.[57]
  • September 7, 2015: Toronto—Danforth candidate Tim Dutaud was forced to resign his candidacy after it was discovered he was YouTube user UniCaller, who has uploaded videos of himself pretending to orgasm while on the phone with female customer service representatives, and mocking people with mental disabilities.[58]
  • September 8, 2015: Bay of Quinte Conservative Electoral District Association board member Sue MacDonell was fired after she posted on Facebook that Cree woman and newly crowned Mrs. Universe Ashley Callingbull-Burnham was a "monster" and a "smug entitled Liberal pet."[52]
  • September 15, 2015: Bonavista—Burin—Trinity candidate Blair Dale was removed from his candidacy after racist and sexist online comments surfaced, including saying that abortion should not be an option for "irresponsible" people.[59]
  • September 17, 2015: Prime Minister Stephen Harper's use of the appellation "Old Stock Canadians" during a nationally televised debate with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, and NDP Leader Tom Mulcair created a Twitter frenzy and substantial media coverage.[60] Without specifically repeating the phrase, Harper later claimed to be referring to Canadians whose families have been here for "one or more generations."[61]
  • October 1, 2015: Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook candidate Robert Strickland was lambasted after Facebook remarks made by Strickland (or a staffer) told a young voter to "gain some experience in life" before engaging in political discussions.[62]
  • October 1, 2015: St. Catharines incumbent Rick Dykstra was alleged to have purchased six Cîroc vodka bottles for underage girls at a local nightclub and then had his campaign offer bribes in exchange for their silence, a charge Dykstra denied.[63]
  • October 6, 2015: Mississauga—Malton candidate Jagdish Grewal was dropped from the party after an editorial by Grewal was printed in the Punjabi Post titled "Is it wrong for a homosexual to become a normal person?" in which he defended gay-conversion therapy to return gay youths to their "normal" heterosexuality. He remained on the ballot.[64]
  • October 10, 2015: The Economist said that "Muslim-bashing" had entered the election campaign, led primarily by the Conservatives, through the issue of the public wearing of the niqab.[65] See also: Zunera Ishaq
NDP
  • August 10, 2015: Kings—Hants candidate Morgan Wheeldon resigned his candidacy after a Facebook comment surfaced where he is accused of saying Israel intended to "ethnically cleanse the region."[66]
  • September 8, 2015: Shawn Dearn, Tom Mulcair's director of communications apologized after tweets came to light criticizing the Catholic Church, including stating that the "misogynist, homophobic, child-molesting Catholic church" is no moral authority, and used an expletive to refer to Pope Benedict XVI after the pope denounced Britain's gay equality rights.[67]
  • September 20, 2015: NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was forced to apologize for using the term "Newfie" in a derogatory fashion as a synonym for "stupid" during a heated exchange in the Quebec legislature in 1996.[68]
  • September 21, 2015: Winnipeg Centre MP Pat Martin apologized for offensive language. Martin called Green Party candidate Don Woodstock a "son of a bitch" during a candidates debate the previous week. In a Huffington Post article, Martin was quoted as saying Liberal candidate Robert-Falcon Ouellette is a "political slut" because he had considered running for different political parties before running for the Liberals.[69][70]
  • September 22, 2015: Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas candidate Alex Johnstone apologized for Facebook comments from seven years prior, where she commented on photos of the Auschwitz concentration camp with "Ahhh, the infamous Pollish [sic], phallic, hydro posts." She claimed to not know that the picture was of the infamous concentration camp.[71]
  • September 24, 2015: Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley candidate Stefan Johansson was asked to step down as candidate after social media posts from three years earlier emerged where he compared the Haredim sect of Judaism to the Taliban and other extremists.[72]
  • October 7, 2015: Brampton East candidate Harbaljit Singh Kahlon, who once told a television programme same-sex marriage could lead to polygamy and public nudity, offered an apology and said he no longer held those views.[73]
Liberal
  • August 18, 2015: Calgary Nose Hill candidate Ala Buzreba stepped down as candidate after offensive Twitter tweets from several years earlier were uncovered, including "Go blow your brains out you waste of sperm" and "Your mother should have used that coat hanger."[74]
  • September 10, 2015: South Surrey—White Rock candidate Joy Davies resigned her candidacy after Facebook comments surfaced where she suggested that marijuana reduced family violence, that growing marijuana in a home poses no harm to children, and that the Canadian Cancer Society was "another outlet for big pharma."[75]
  • September 10, 2015: Peace River—Westlock candidate Chris Brown apologized for offensive tweets he made in December 2009, during a bout of alcoholism after the death of his wife.[76]
  • September 16, 2015: Sturgeon River—Parkland candidate Chris Austin had his candidacy removed because of views that "are irreconcilable with the values" of the Liberals, including saying Stephen Harper "has turned our Nation's Capital into a War Zone as his thirst for War" in the aftermath of the Parliament Hill shootings, and suggesting that the RCMP are the "Canadian Gestapo."[77]
  • September 28, 2015: Cowichan—Malahat—Langford candidate Maria Manna resigned her candidacy after Facebook comments surfaced questioning the events of the September 11 attacks.[78]
  • September 30, 2015: Victoria candidate Cheryl Thomas resigned after past social media posts came to light, including referring to mosques as "brainwashing stations" and saying "the oppressed of the Warsaw ghettos and the concentration camps have become the oppressors." As the candidate deadline (September 28) had already passed, her name remained on the ballot.[79]
  • October 14, 2015: Dan Gagnier, a co-chair of the Liberal Party's national campaign, stepped down from his position after the reveal of an email indicating he had provided advice to TransCanada on how to lobby a potential Liberal government regarding energy issues.[80]
BQ
  • Late August 2015: Mégantic—L'Érable candidate Virginie Provost was embarrassed after a survey asking what she would need in the event of a nuclear attack was revealed. Her answer was that she would bring "her cellphone, a penis and chips."[52]
  • September 19, 2015: Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Sœurs candidate Chantal St-Onge apologized after sharing an anti-Islam Pegida post on Facebook.[52]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main articles: Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election, by constituency
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency

Evolution of voting intentions during the campaign leading up to the 2015 Canadian federal election to be held on October 19, 2015. Points represent results of individual polls.

Endorsements

[edit]
Main articles: Newspaper endorsements in the 2015 Canadian federal election and Endorsements from individuals and organizations in the 2015 Canadian federal election

Election spending

[edit]

Before the campaign, there were no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun. Because the election period is set longer than the standard 37-day election period, spending limits are increased in proportion to the length of the period.[81]

Party spending limits and actual spending, 2015 vs 2011
Type Spending limits 2015 2011[82]
2015[83] 2011 Conservative NDP Liberal Conservative NDP Liberal
Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount %
Political party $54,475,840[84] $21,025,793 $29,000,000 $28,000,000 $26,000,000 $19,519,995 93% $20,372,231 97% $19,507,746 93%
Party candidates $73,611,590[85] $28,244,499 $21,000,000 $11,000,000 $15,000,000 $19,655,136 70% $7,117,962 25% $14,517,363 41%
Total $128,087,430 $49,270,292 $39,175,131 80% $27,490,193 56% $34,025,109 69%
Candidates spending > 75% of limit 173 44 91
Candidates spending > 50% of limit 228 70 169

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

[edit]

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, candidates (through their official agents) receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.[86]

Fundraising

[edit]

Elections Canada reports that during the financial quarter preceding the writ period, the Conservatives received $7.4 million in contributions, the NDP received $4.5 million, and the Liberals received $4.0 million.[87] The NDP had the most individual donors at 48,314, followed by the Conservatives at 45,532 and then the Liberals at 32,789.[87][88]

The New Democratic Party stated that it collected greater than $9 million in the third quarter of 2015, the most it ever received from donors, and greater than the quarterly record established by the Conservative Party in 2011.[89]

At the riding level, financial reports in each of the 338 constituencies showed that in Conservative electoral district associations ended 2014 with net assets totalling more than $19 million, Liberal riding associations reported a total of about $8 million in net assets, and NDP associations more than $4.4 million.[90]

Individuals are able to give up to $1,500 to each political party and an additional $1,500 to all the registered associations, nomination contestants and candidates of each registered party combined.[91]

Registered third parties

[edit]

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[92] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. There were 112 registered third parties in the 2015 election.[93] There was a $150,000 election advertising expenses limit. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 could be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[93]

Results

[edit]
Main articles: Results of the 2015 Canadian federal election and Results of the 2015 Canadian federal election by riding
Cartogram of the 2015 Canadian federal election results
A polling station on election day
Summary of the 2015 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2011 Dissol. Redist.[a] 2015 % change
from 2011 		% seats Votes Vote
change 		% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[b] 34 36 36 184 +441.18% 54.44% 6,942,937 +4,159,861 39.47% +20.57pp 39.47%
Conservative Stephen Harper 338[c] 166 159 188 99 -40.36% 29.29% 5,613,633 −221,637 31.91% −7.72pp 31.91%
New Democratic Tom Mulcair 338 103 95[d] 109 44 -57.28% 13.02% 3,469,368 −1,043,043 19.72% −10.92pp 19.73%
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 78 4 2 4 10 +150% 2.96% 821,144 −70,281 4.67% −1.39pp 19.36%
Green Elizabeth May 336 1 2[d] 1 1 0% 0.3% 602,933 +30,838 3.43% −0.46pp 3.44%
  Independent and No Affiliation 80 0 8 0 0 0 0 49,616 −23,245 0.28% −0.21pp 1.18%
Libertarian Tim Moen 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 36,775 +30,773 0.21% +0.17pp 0.93%
Christian Heritage Rod Taylor 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 15,232 −3,678 0.09% −0.04pp 0.97%
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,838 −1,087 0.05% −0.02pp 0.23%
Strength in Democracy Jean-François Fortin 17 — 2[e] — 0 0 0 8,274 * 0.05% * 0.90%
Rhinoceros Sébastien Corriveau 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,263 +3,463 0.04% +0.02pp 0.52%
Progressive Canadian Sinclair Stevens 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,476 −1,314 0.03% −0.01pp 1.03%
Communist Miguel Figueroa 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,393 +1,499 0.02% +0.01pp 0.32%
Animal Alliance Liz White 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,699 +355 0.01% – 0.36%
Marijuana Blair Longley 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,557 −199 0.01% – 0.34%
Democratic Advancement Stephen Garvey 4 — 0 — 0 0 0 1,187 * 0.01% * 0.62%
Pirate Roderick Lim 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 908 −2,289 0.01% −0.02pp 0.32%
Canadian Action Jeremy Arney 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 401 −1,550 0.00% −0.01pp 0.24%
Canada Party Jim Pankiw 1 — 0 — 0 0 0 271 * 0.00% * 0.72%
Seniors Daniel J. Patton 1 — — — 0 0 0 157 * 0.00% * 0.29%
Alliance of the North François Bélanger 1 — — — 0 0 0 136 * 0.00% * 0.22%
Bridge David Berlin 1 — 0 — 0 0 0 122 * 0.00% * 0.29%
PACT Michael Nicula 1 — 0 — 0 0 0 91 * 0.00% * 0.17%
United Bob Kesic 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 −237 0.00% −0.00pp 0.10%
  Vacant 0 4 0 0 —
Total 1,792 308 308 338 338 +9.74% 100% 17,591,468 +2,870,888 100% 100%
Source: Elections Canada (Final results)
Popular vote
Liberal
 
 39.47%
Conservative
 
 31.91%
New Democratic
 
 19.73%
Bloc Québécois
 
 4.67%
Green
 
 3.43%
Others
 
 0.79%


Seat totals
Liberal
 
 54.44%
Conservative
 
 29.29%
New Democratic
 
 13.02%
Bloc Québécois
 
 2.96%
Green
 
 0.3%
Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2015
Party 2011
(redist.) 		Gain from (loss to) 2015
Lib Con NDP BQ Grn
Liberal 36 96 51 1 184
Conservative 188 (96) (3) 99
New Democratic 109 (51) 3 (7) 44
Bloc Québécois 4 (1) 7 10
Green 1 1
Total 338 (148) 99 55 (6) 338
Swing analysis Conservative to Liberal NDP to Liberal NDP to Conservative
+14.15pp +15.74pp +1.60pp

Results by province

[edit]
Party name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL YT NT NU Total
     Liberal Seats: 17 4 1 7 80 40 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 184
Vote: 35.2 24.6 23.9 44.6 44.8 35.7 51.6 61.9 58.3 64.5 53.6 48.3 47.2 39.5
     Conservative Seats: 10 29 10 5 33 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 99
Vote: 30.0 59.5 48.5 37.3 35.0 16.7 25.3 17.9 19.3 10.3 24.0 18.0 24.8 31.9
     New Democratic Seats: 14 1 3 2 8 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44
Vote: 25.9 11.6 25.1 13.8 16.6 25.4 18.3 16.4 16.0 21.0 19.5 30.8 26.5 19.7
     Bloc Québécois Seats: — 10 — 10
Vote: 19.3 4.7
     Green Seats: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Vote: 8.2 2.5 2.1 3.2 2.9 2.3 4.6 3.4 6.0 1.1 2.9 2.8 1.5 3.4
     Independent and No Affiliation Vote: 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.9 0.2
Total seats 42 34 14 14 121 78 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 338

Election aftermath

[edit]
Pie chart detailing the percentage of seats won in the House of Commons

Hours after conceding defeat on election night, incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper resigned as leader of the Conservative Party, though he announced his intention to remain in the new parliament as a backbencher after being elected in the riding of Calgary Heritage.[7][94] The Conservative caucus met on November 5, 2015, and elected former health minister and Alberta MP Rona Ambrose as interim leader of the party, and hence, interim Leader of the Official Opposition.[95] The next Conservative Party of Canada leadership election was held on May 27, 2017.[96] Following his swearing in on November 4, 2015, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that parliament would reconvene on December 3, 2015, with the Speech from the Throne to follow on December 4.[97]

Commentary

[edit]

In the aftermath of the 2011 election, many pundits had characterized it as a realigning election. Lawrence Martin, commentator for The Globe and Mail said, "Harper has completed a remarkable reconstruction of a Canadian political landscape that endured for more than a century. The realignment saw both old parties of the moderate middle, the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals, either eliminated or marginalized."[98] Andrew Coyne, writing in Maclean's, said the election marked "an unprecedented realignment of Canadian politics" as "the Conservatives are now in a position to replace the Liberals as the natural governing party in Canada."[99]

Despite the grim outlook and poor early poll numbers, when the 2015 election was held, the Liberals under Trudeau made an unprecedented comeback. Gaining 148 seats, they won a majority government for the first time since 2000.[100] Chantal Hébert, writing in the Toronto Star, claimed the comeback was "headed straight for the history books" and that Harper's name would "forever be joined with that of his Liberal nemesis in Canada's electoral annals".[101] Spencer McKay, writing for the National Post, suggested that "maybe we've witnessed a revival of Canada's 'natural governing party'".[102]

International reactions

[edit]

Cabinet appointments

[edit]
Main article: 29th Canadian Ministry

On November 4, 2015, the following individuals were sworn in as cabinet ministers of the 29th Canadian Ministry, in addition to Justin Trudeau as prime minister and minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Youth:[107][108][109]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ The party totals are theoretical. They are the transposition of the 2011 district results redistributed to the new districts formed in 2015.
  2. ^ Includes Liberal candidate Cheryl Thomas from Victoria, who publicly withdrew from the election after the final list of candidates was released and thus remained on the ballot as the Liberal candidate.
  3. ^ Includes Conservative candidate Jagdish Grewal from Mississauga—Malton, who was expelled by the Conservative Party after the final list of candidates was released and thus remained on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.
  4. ^ a b Does not include José Núñez-Melo, an incumbent MP who was denied the NDP nomination in Vimy after the writ was dropped, and subsequently announced he was running as a Green candidate.
  5. ^ Does not include Montcalm MP Manon Perreault, who sat as an independent before the writ was dropped, after which she announced her candidacy for Strength in Democracy.

References

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Further reading

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