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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2003 November 6, 2007 2011 →
Turnout37.1% Decrease 2.9 pp
 
Nominee Steve Beshear Ernie Fletcher
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Daniel Mongiardo Robbie Rudolph
Popular vote 619,552 435,773
Percentage 58.71% 41.29%
Beshear:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Fletcher:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Ernie Fletcher
Republican

Elected Governor

Steve Beshear
Democratic

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The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term, but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.[1] Steve Beshear's son Andy was elected Kentucky's State Attorney General in 2015 [2] and Kentucky's Governor in 2019 and 2023.

Background

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Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%,[3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).

On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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  • Running mate: Mark Wireman
  • Otis Hensley – Private contractor from Wallins Creek, Kentucky who received 3% of the vote in the Democratic primary in 2003.
  • Running mate: Richard Robbins
  • Bruce Lunsford – prominent Louisville businessman; sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2003; withdrew four days before the primary, endorsing Jody Richards.

Polling

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Source Date Steve
Beshear 		Gatewood
Galbraith 		Steve
Henry 		Otis
Hensley 		Bruce
Lunsford 		Jody
Richards 		Jonathan
Miller
Survey USA[4] May 18–20, 2007 32% 7% 17% 1% 23% 12% N/A
Penn, Schoen and Berland[5] May 16–17, 2007 26% N/A 13% N/A 22% 12% N/A
GarinHartYang Research[6] May 14–15, 2007 35% N/A 13% N/A 23% 12% N/A
Survey USA[7] May 12–14, 2007 32% 5% 18% 1% 23% 12% N/A
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[8] May 10–14, 2007 27% 4% 13% 1% 21% 7% N/A
Survey USA[9] April 28–30, 2007 23% 6% 18% 1% 29% 9% 7%
Mellman Group[10] April 19–22, 2007 15% N/A 24% N/A 16% 9% 20%
Survey USA[11] March 31 – April 2, 2007 15% 8% 20% 1% 20% 12% 8%
Survey USA[12] March 3–5, 2007 15% 6% 26% 2% 7% 13% 8%
GarinHartYang Research[13] February 20–22, 2007 21% N/A 21% N/A 8% 16% 8%

Results

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Primary results by county:
  Beshear
  •   Beshear—80-90%
  •   Beshear—70-80%
  •   Beshear—60-70%
  •   Beshear—50-60%
  •   Beshear—40-50%
  •   Beshear—30-40%
  •   Beshear—20-30%
  Lunsford
  •   Lunsford—60-70%
  •   Lunsford—50-60%
  •   Lunsford—40-50%
  •   Lunsford—30-40%
  Henry
  •   Henry—50-60%
  •   Henry—40-50%
  •   Henry—30-40%
  Richards
  •   Richards—60-70%
  •   Richards—50-60%
  •   Richards—40-50%
  •   Richards—30-40%
  •   Richards—20-30%
  Galbraith
  •   Galbraith—30-40%
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Steve Beshear 142,838 41.02%
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 74,578 21.42%
Democratic Steve Henry 60,893 17.49%
Democratic Jody Richards 45,433 13.05%
Democratic Gatewood Galbraith 20,704 5.95%
Democratic Otis Hensley 3,792 1.09%
Total votes 348,238 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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  • Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, State Secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; State Secretary of Finance, 2003–2006.
  • Billy Harper – Businessman
  • Running mate: Dick Wilson.

Polling

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Source Date Ernie
Fletcher 		Billy
Harper 		Anne
Northup
Survey USA[4] May 18–20, 2007 44% 17% 34%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[8] May 10–15, 2007 41% 10% 26%
Survey USA[7] May 12–14, 2007 44% 14% 34%
Survey USA[9] April 28–30, 2007 46% 14% 34%
Survey USA[11] March 31 – April 2, 2007 40% 16% 31%
Survey USA[12] March 3–5, 2007 33% 13% 31%
Public Opinion Strategies[15] January 28–29, 2007 39% 10% 39%

Results

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Primary results by county:
  Fletcher
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Northup
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Harper
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) 101,328 50.08%
Republican Anne Northup 73,919 36.53%
Republican Billy Harper 27,092 13.39%
Total votes 202,339 100.00%

General election

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Polling

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Source Date Steve
Beshear (D) 		Ernie
Fletcher (R)
Survey USA[16] November 2–4, 2007 59% 39%
Rasmussen Reports[17] November 1, 2007 54% 39%
Survey USA[18] October 27–29, 2007 60% 36%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[19] October 26–29, 2007 56% 33%
Research 2000[20] October 22–24, 2007 55% 40%
Survey USA[21] October 19–21, 2007 58% 38%
Survey USA[22] October 8–9, 2007 56% 40%
Insider Advantage[23] September 24–25, 2007 45% 35%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[24] September 13–18, 2007 55% 35%
Preston-Osborne[25] September 13–17, 2007 51% 36%
Research 2000[26] September 10–13, 2007 56% 39%
Survey USA[27] September 8–10, 2007 58% 39%
Survey USA[28] August 4–6, 2007 58% 37%
Preston-Osborne[29] July 25 – August 2, 2007 49% 31%
Survey USA[30] July 14–16, 2007 59% 36%
Insider Advantage[31] July 8–9, 2007 41% 38%
Rasmussen Reports[32] May 24–25, 2007 51% 35%
Survey USA[33] May 23–24, 2007 62% 34%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Likely D (flip) November 1, 2007

Results

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Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2007
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Steve Beshear 619,552 58.71% +13.74%
Republican Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) 435,773 41.29% −13.74%
Total votes 1,055,325 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov Archived May 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  2. ^ "Democratic Attorney General-elect Andy Beshear pledges cooperation with Republican Governor". WDRB. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
  3. ^ "SurveyUSA News Poll #12133". Surveyusa.com. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  4. ^ a b Survey USA
  5. ^ Penn, Schoen and Berland
  6. ^ GarinHartYang Research Archived 2007-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
  7. ^ a b Survey USA
  8. ^ a b Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  9. ^ a b Survey USA
  10. ^ Mellman Group
  11. ^ a b Survey USA
  12. ^ a b Survey USA
  13. ^ GarinHartYang Research
  14. ^ a b "Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections". Elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on August 24, 2011. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  15. ^ Steitzer, Stephenie (February 2, 2007). "Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher". The Kentucky Post. Covington, Kentucky. p. A2.
  16. ^ Survey USA
  17. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  18. ^ Survey USA
  19. ^ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  20. ^ Research 2000
  21. ^ Survey USA
  22. ^ Survey USA
  23. ^ Insider Advantage
  24. ^ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  25. ^ Preston-Osborne
  26. ^ Research 2000
  27. ^ Survey USA
  28. ^ Survey USA
  29. ^ Preston-Osborne
  30. ^ Survey USA
  31. ^ Insider Advantage
  32. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  33. ^ Survey USA
  34. ^ "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
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Candidates

Information

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