superforecaster
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English
[edit]Etymology
[edit]From super + forecaster.
Noun
[edit]
superforecaster (plural superforecasters)
- One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy.
- 2015, Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, →ISBN, page 205:
- On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.
- 2018, Steve Fuller, Post-Truth: Knowledge As A Power Game, →ISBN:
- An important lesson taught by the gaming approach to warfare is that the superforecaster must be always open to 'unknown unknowns', to use the decision-theoretic jargon popularized by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.
- 2018, Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen, Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life, →ISBN, page 51:
- The superforecasters turned out to outperform the other contestants by a substantial margin in the second and third years of the tournament, that is, they were not just lucky.