Search Results

A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay,
Pablo Galaso and Sandra Rodriguez, from Instituto de Economía - IECON (2014)
Keywords: leading indicator, business cycle, turning points, Uruguay

A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency,
Bengi Kibritcioglu, Bulent Kose and Gamze Ugur, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2001)
Keywords: Leading economic indicators, predictability of currency crises, Turkey

Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles,
Ulrich Fritsche and Felix Marklein, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2001)
Keywords: Business Cycle, Leading Indicators, EMU, Eurozone, Euroland

A Composite Leading Indicator of Tunisian Inflation,
Mohamed Daly Sfia, from William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan (2010)
Keywords: Tunisia, Inflation, Leading indicators, Composite index

An Evaluation of Japanese Leading Indicators,
Hiroshi Yamada, Yuzo Honda and Yasuyoshi Tokutsu, in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (2008)
Keywords: Business cycle turning points, Leading indicators, Baxter-King filter

Leading indicators in a globalised world,
Ferdinand Fichtner, Rasmus Rüffer and Bernd Schnatz, from European Central Bank (2009)
Keywords: business cycle, forecast comparison, globalisation, Leading Indicator, structural change

The Composite Leading Indicator of Mongolia,
Erdenebat Bataa, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)
Keywords: macroeconomic forecasting, Mongolia, composite leading indicator, structural changes.

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions,
Jonas Dovern and Christina Ziegler, from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2008)
Keywords: leading indicators, forecasting, recessions

Out-of-sample Performance of Leading Indicators for the German Business Cycle: Single vs. Combined Forecasts,
Christian Dreger and Christian Schumacher, in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (2005)
Keywords: Leading Indicators, Combined forecasts

Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition,
Jonas Dovern and Christina Ziegler, in Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) (2008)
Keywords: leading indicators, forecasting, recessions

A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System,
Henk C. Kranendonk, Jan Bonenkamp and Johan Verbruggen, from CESifo (2004)
Keywords: leading indicator, short-term forecasts

A COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR CALCULATION FOR TURKISH EXPORTS,
Güzin Bayar and Rahmet Uslu, in Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences (2012)
Keywords: Export, Leading Indicator, Noise/Signal Ratio

Current Period Performance of OECD Composite Leading Indicators,
Ronny Nilsson and Emmanuelle Guidetti, in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (2008)
Keywords: Revision analysis, Leading indicators, Turning points, Smoothness

Interest Rate Expectations in a Model Using Leading Indicators,
Miroslav Klucik, from International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences (2014)
Keywords: leading indicators, heterogenous agents, expectations, monetary policy

Incorporating macroeconomic leading indicators in tactical capacity planning,
Yves R. Sagaert, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Stijn De Vuyst, El-Houssaine Aghezzaf and Bram Desmet, in International Journal of Production Economics (2019)
Keywords: Leading indicators; Inventory; Forecasting; Capacity planning;

A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate,
Burcu Gürcihan Yüncüler, Gonul Sengul and Arzu Yavuz, from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2013)
Keywords: Leading Indicator,Unemployment Rate,GrangerCausality Test

A Leading Indicator for Employment using Big Data,
Renzo Castellares and Gerson Cornejo, from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (2020)
Keywords: Formal Employment, Job Ads, Leading Indicator, Forecast.

Leading Indicators of Business Cycles in Malaysia and the Philippines,
Wenda Zhang and Juzhong Zhuang, from Asian Development Bank (2002)
Keywords: economic cycles; leading indicators; Malaysia; Philippines; prediction

Considering the systems engineering leading indicators to improve project performance measurement,
Li Zheng, Claude Baron, Philippe Esteban, Rui Xue and Qiang Zhang, from HAL (2017)
Keywords: KPIs,leading indicators,performance measurement,lagging indicators

Leading Indicators in Quantile Index Percentile,
Felipe Dutra Calainho and Alex van de Minne, from European Real Estate Society (ERES) (2024)
Keywords: Leading indicators; Machine Learning; Quantile Index; Time Series

A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting,
Ann-Ni Soh, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2020)
Keywords: leading indicator; growth cycle; forecasting; composite indicator; early warning system

Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?,
Massimiliano Marcellino, from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2005)
Keywords: Business cycles; Leading indicators; Coincident indicators; Turning points; Forecasting

New composite leading indicator of the Hungarian business cycle,
Andrea Tkáčová and Marianna Siničáková, in Acta Oeconomica (2015)
Keywords: leading indicators, composite leading indicator, business cycle, reference series, GDP, industrial production index, Hungary

IDENTIFICATION OF INDUSTRIAL CYCLE LEADING INDICATORS USING CAUSALITY TEST,
Rafal Kasperowicz, in Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy (2010)
Keywords: business cycle, industrial fluctuations, leading indicators, leading index, Granger causality

An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States,
Maria Silgoner, in Monetary Policy & the Economy (2005)
Keywords: Leading indicators.

Are the leading indicators really leading? Evidence from mixed-frequency spillover approach,
Yu Wei, Zhuo Wang, Xiaorui Zhou, Yue Shang and Lin Ren, in Finance Research Letters (2024)
Keywords: Leading indicators; Financial markets; Mixed-frequency spillover; Common-frequency spillover;

Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan,
Joannes Mongardini and Tahsin Saadi Sedik, from International Monetary Fund (2003)
Keywords: WP;leading indicator;economic activity;composite index; Jordan; coincident indicators; leading indicators; Jordanian dinar; composite index of leading economic indicators; confidence interval; adjusted leading indicators; OECD methodology; composite indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators; leading indicators of economic activity; share price; Cyclical indicators; Business cycles; Industrial production; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Production index; Global

Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models,
Jörg Döpke, from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (1999)
Keywords: Leading indicators, business cycles, probit models

Are lodging revenue cycles leading indicators for shifts in financial well-being?,
L. Taylor Damonte and Arch G. Woodside, in Journal of Business Research (2021)
Keywords: Dow; Lodging demand; Leading indicator; Tourism economy;

Forecasting the Global Electronics Cycle with Leading Indicators: A VAR Approach,
Keen Meng Choy and Hwee Kwan Chow, from Econometric Society (2004)
Keywords: Leading indicators; Global electronics cycle; VAR; Forecasting

Forecasting the Global Electronics Cycle with Leading Indicators: A VAR Approach,
Hwee Kwan Chow and Keen Meng Choy, from Singapore Management University, School of Economics (2004)
Keywords: Leading indicators; Global electronics cycle; VAR; Forecasting

Leading indicator variables and managerial incentives in a dynamic agency setting,
Qintao Fan and Wei Li, in Review of Accounting Studies (2018)
Keywords: Leading indicator variables, Holdup problem, Ratchet effect

The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017,
Rebecca Stuart, in Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (2020)
Keywords: Switzerland, Term structure, Recessions, Leading indicators

Forecasting the Greek office price index using macroeconomic leading indicators,
Vasiliki Vlachostergiou and Anastasios Karaganis, from European Real Estate Society (ERES) (2017)
Keywords: Forecasting; Macro-economic leading indicators; office prices

Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models,
Heather Anderson and Farshid Vahid, from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2000)
Keywords: Event probabilities, Leading Indicators, Nonlinear Models

How many jobs? A leading indicator model of New Zealand employment,
Edda Claus and Iris Claus, from New Zealand Treasury (2002)
Keywords: Composite index of leading indicators, forecasting, employment

Short Term Macro Monitoring: Leading Indicator Construction-Mexico,
Stephen Everhart and Robert Duval-Hernandez, from International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University (2001)
Keywords: Macro Monitoring, Leading Indicator Construction, Mexico

Assessment of State Capacity to Identify and Track Disparities in the Leading Health Indicators,
Allison Hedley Dodd, Melissa Neuman and Marsha Gold, from Mathematica Policy Research
Keywords: Leading Health Indicators , State Capacity , Track Disparities

Forecasting with leading economic indicators - a non-linear approach,
Timotej Jagric, in Prague Economic Papers (2003)
Keywords: leading economic indicators, neural network, forecasting, aggregate economic activity

Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators,
Katja Drechsel, Sebastian Giesen and Axel Lindner, from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) (2014)
Keywords: IMF WEO forecasts, leading indicators, real-time data

Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy,
Miroslav Klucik and Ján Haluška, in Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015) (2008)
Keywords: Composite leading indicator, turning points, cyclical analysis, time series

A Leading Indicator of Austrian Exports Based on Truck Mileage,
Gerhard Fenz and Martin Schneider, in Monetary Policy & the Economy (2009)
Keywords: leading indicator, transport volume, export activity, business cycle, forecasting

Currency equivalent monetary aggregates as leading indicators of inflation,
Sunil Paul and M Ramachandran, in Economic Modelling (2011)
Keywords: Currency equivalent monetary aggregate Leading indicators Cointegration and error correction models

A New Composite Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity,
Aslihan Atabek Demi̇rhan, Evren Erdoğan Coşar and Saygin Sahinöz, in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade (2005)
Keywords: detrending, industrial production index, leading indicators, seasonal adjustment,

In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany,
Harm Bandholz and Michael Funke, from Hamburg University, Department of Economics (2003)
Keywords: Business Cycles, Leading Indicators, Turning Points, Markov Switching, Germany

Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany,
Ivan Savin and Peter Winker, from COMISEF (2011)
Keywords: Leading indicators, business cycle forecasts, VAR, model selection, genetic algorithms.

Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany,
Ivan Savin and Peter Winker, from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) (2011)
Keywords: Leading indicators, business cycle forecasts, VAR, model selection, genetic algorithms

Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth,
Anindya Banerjee, Massimiliano Marcellino and Igor Masten, from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2003)
Keywords: Leading indicator; Factor model; Model selection; Gdp growth; inflation

In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany,
Harm Bandholz and Michael Funke, from CESifo (2001)
Keywords: business cycles, leading indicators, turning points, Markov, switching, Germany

A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators,
Robert McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, from The Conference Board, Economics Program (2003)
Keywords: business cycle, forecasting, indicators, leading index, times series

A Composite Leading Indicator for the Hotel Industry,
Candy Mei Fung Tang and Nada Kulendran, in Tourism Economics (2011)
Keywords: composite leading indicators; hotel occupancy growth cycle; turning points; logistic regression; Hong Kong

Coincident and Leading Indicators for Brazilian Cycles,
Aloisio Campelo, Ataman Ozyildirim, Jing Sima-Friedman, Paulo Picchetti and Sarah Piassi Machado Lima, from Springer (2019)
Keywords: Business cycle, Turning points, Indicators, Coincident index, Leading index, Time series, Markov switching/forecasting

Recession Prediction with OptimalUse of Leading Indicators,
Heikki Kauppi, from Aboa Centre for Economics (2019)
Keywords: gradient boosting, leading indicators, non-parametric esti-mation, optimal binary prediction, recession prediction

The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts,
Filippo Altissimo, Domenico J. Marchetti and Gian Paolo Oneto, in Giornale degli Economisti (2000)
Keywords: business cycles, cyclical indicators, leading indicators, stylized facts

The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts,
Filippo Altissimo, Domenico J. Marchetti and Gian Paolo Oneto, from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area (2000)
Keywords: business cycles, cyclical indicators, leading indicators, Italian stylized fact

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND TAIWAN STOCK MARKET – A CASE STUDY OF LEADING AND LAGGING INDICATORS,
Tzu-Yi Yang, in Studii Financiare (Financial Studies) (2020)
Keywords: TSEC Large-cap Index, leading indicators, lagging indicators

Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia,
Esteban Gómez, Andrés Murcia and Nancy Zamundio, in Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica (2011)
Keywords: financial conditions index, Early-Warning Indicators, leading indicators, Macroprudential Supervision, principal component analysis

The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland,
Rafal Wozniak, from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw (2011)
Keywords: business cycles, leading indicators, coincident indicators, dynamic factor model, stochastic cycle, stochastic trend

Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia?,
Esteban Gómez, Andrés Murcia and Nancy Zamudio Gómez, from Banco de la Republica de Colombia (2011)
Keywords: Financial Conditions Index, Early-Warning Indicators, Leading Indicators, Macroprudential Supervision, Principal Component Analysis5

Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator,
Dimitris Anastasiou, Konstantinos Drakos and Panayotis Kapopoulos, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2022)
Keywords: Leading Indicator; Expectations; Tourist Arrivals; VAR; Greece

Do investors consider composite leading indicators? Time series evidence from emerging countries,
Mert Topcu and Ulas Unlu, in Theoretical and Applied Economics (2013)
Keywords: share prices; composite leading indicators; emerging markets.

TOWARDS A NEW SET OF LEADING INDICATORS OF CURRENCY CRISIS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN APPLICATION TO ARGENTINA,
Federico Marongiu, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2005)
Keywords: currency crisis - exchange rate - leading indicators - Argentina

The instability of leading indicators in forecasting Austrian inflation: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis,
Friedrich Fritzer, in OeNB Bulletin (2024)
Keywords: macroeconomic forecasting, inflation, leading indicators, forecast combination

Assessment of Composite Leading Indicators Usefulness in Forecasting Loans and Deposits Cyclical Fluctuations,
Józef Garczarczyk and Robert Skikiewicz, in Prace i Materiały (2011)
Keywords: cyclical barometers, banking sector, forecasting, composite leading indicators,

Forecasting Stock Market Indices with the Composite Leading Indicators: Evidence from Turkey,
Esra Nazmiye Kilci, in Sosyoekonomi Journal (2020)
Keywords: Composite Leading Indicators, Stock Market Indices, Structural Breaks.

Deviation Cycles in Manufacturing: Business Cycle Measurement and Leading Indicators,
Ard Reijer, in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (2007)
Keywords: Business cycles, Turning points, Leading indicators, Band-pass filter

Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators,
Alexander Schlösser, from RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen (2020)
Keywords: forecasting, industrial production, model averaging, leading indicator, time-varying parameter

Auditing emergency management programmes: Measuring leading indicators of programme performance,
Heather Tomsic, in Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning (2016)
Keywords: evaluation, audit, measurement, performance, leading indicators, management systems

A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators,
Nancy Leveson, in Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2015)
Keywords: Leading indicators; System safety; Process safety; STAMP; STPA; Risk management;

On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence,
Konstantin Kholodilin and Boriss Siliverstovs, in Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) (2006)
Keywords: Forecasting real GDP, diffusion index, leading indicators, PcCets

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?,
Yanping Zhao, Jakob Haan, Bert Scholtens and Haizhen Yang, in Open Economies Review (2014)
Keywords: Leading indicators, Currency crises, Exchange rate regimes, F31, F37, E42,

Leading indicators on construction and retail trade sectors based on ISAE survey data,
Luciana Crosilla and Solange Leproux, from ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) (2007)
Keywords: Leading indicators, cyclical analysis, construction survey, retail trade survey.

An Application of the Indicator Approach to Developing Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes for India,
Atish Dash, Ataman Ozyildirim and Jing Sima-Friedman, from Springer (2019)
Keywords: Trends, Cycles and turning points, Coincident and leading economic indicators

A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy,
Jens J. Krüger, in Journal of Business Cycle Research (2021)
Keywords: Business cycle forecasting, Leading indicators, Wavelet analysis, Phase difference

Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis,
Thomas Theobald, from IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2012)
Keywords: Business Cycle, Leading Indicators, Macroeconomic Forecasting, Markov Switching

On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence,
Konstantin Kholodilin and Boriss Siliverstovs, from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2005)
Keywords: Forecasting real GDP; Diffusion index; Leading indicators; PcGets

The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely,
Robert McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz, from The Conference Board, Economics Program (2000)
Keywords: business cycle, indicators, leading index, times series, forecasting

Capturing the Shape of Business Cycles with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models,
George Athanasopoulos, Heather Anderson and Farshid Vahid, from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2001)
Keywords: Business Cycles; Leading Indicators; Nonlinear Models; Yield Spread

Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries,
Heather Anderson, George Athanasopoulos and Farshid Vahid, from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2002)
Keywords: Business Cycles, Leading Indicators, Model Evaluation, Nonlinear Models, Yield Spreads.

On the Predictive Content of Leading Indicators: The Case of US Real Estate Markets,
Sotiris Tsolacos, Chris Brooks and Ogonna Nneji, from Henley Business School, University of Reading (2013)
Keywords: Leading indicator, US rents, turning point forecasting, direction prediction

Forecasting UK Real Estate Cycle Phases With Leading Indicators: A Probit Approach,
Alexandra Krystaloyianni, George Matysiak and Sotiris Tsolacos, from Henley Business School, University of Reading (2004)
Keywords: commercial real estate, turning points, leading indicators, probit models

Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator,
Miroslav Klucik and Jana Juriová, in Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics (2010)
Keywords: Global economic crisis, recession, composite leading indicator, ARIMAX model, error correction model

Systemic Banking Crisis and Macroeconomic Leading Indicators,
Johan Winbladh, from International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences (2017)
Keywords: Systemic banking crisis, multivariate regression analysis, macroeconomic leading indicators, and macroeconomic fundamental problems.

Methods for Estimating the Gross Regional Product Leading Indicator,
Vladimir Boyko, Nadezhda Kislyak, Mikhail Nikitin and Oleg Oborin, in Russian Journal of Money and Finance (2020)
Keywords: leading indicator, gross regional product, temporal disaggregation, Chow-Lin, Litterman, Fernandez

Macro-economic leading indicators of construction contract prices,
Akintola Akintoye, Paul Bowen and Cliff Hardcastle, in Construction Management and Economics (1998)
Keywords: Price, Tender Price Index, Forecasting, Leading Indicator, Time Series, Analysis, Macro-economic, Variables,

Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia,
Esteban Gómez, Andrés Murcia and Nancy Zamudio, in Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica (2011)
Keywords: Financial conditions index, early-warningindicators, leading indicators, macroprudential supervision, principal component analysis

Urban Land: Price Indices, Performance, and Leading Indicators,
Mark Fitzgerald, David J. Hansen, Will McIntosh and Barrett A. Slade, in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (2020)
Keywords: Land prices, Hedonic price analysis, Time-varying constant-quality indices, Residential and commercial properties, Leading indicator

Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?,
Johann Burgstaller, from Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria (2002)
Keywords: Stock returns; stock market efficiency; leading indicators; macroeconomic variables; vector error correction models

Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010,
Sumru Altug and Erhan Uluceviz, from Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum (2011)
Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey

Leading Indicators of Turkey’s Financial Crises,
Mohamad Kaakeh and Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu, from Springer (2022)
Keywords: Financial crisis, Banking sector, Stepwise regression, Probit and logit models, Leading indicators, Turkey