Timing the Impact of Sanctions on Trade

Mian Dai, Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha (), Constantinos Syropoulos (), Erdal Yalcin and Yoto Yotov
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Aleksandra Kirilakha: School of Economics, Postal: LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, 3220 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA

No 2021-7, School of Economics Working Paper Series from LeBow College of Business, Drexel University

Abstract: We capitalize on the latest estimation methods in the empirical gravity literature and the development of a new dataset (the Global Sanctions Data Base, GSDB) to study the evolution, over time, of the effects of sanctions on international trade. Our analysis reveals that the contemporaneous effects of sanctions on trade are large, negative and statistically significant. Additionally, we obtain negative and significant anticipatory effects prior to the official imposition of sanctions, as well as negative and significant post-sanction effects, which disappear gradually approximately eight years after the lifting of sanctions. Our work generates several insights related to the estimation of the impact of sanctions on trade and unveils new avenues for future work. For example, we find the strength of the negative impact of sanctions to rise with the duration of the time that sanctions are in force. Moreover, our analysis of unilateral vs. multilateral and US vs. UN vs. EU sanctions suggests that unilateral sanctions and sanctions imposed by the US stand out as being most effective. A battery of sensitivity experiments confirms the robustness of our main findings and conclusions.

Keywords: Sanctions; the GSDB; Trade Effects; Timing; Duration; Evolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2021-01-20, Revised 2021-02-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_007

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