PIER Working Paper Archive

From Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
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24-038: Macro-Financial Implications of the Surging Global Demand (and Supply) of International Reserves

Vincenzo Quadrini and Enrique Mendoza

24-037: Why Global and Local Solutions of Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets Differ and Why it Matters

Oliver de Groot, C. Bora Durdu and Enrique Mendoza

24-036: Scalable versus Productive Technologies

Joachim Hubmer, Mons Chan, Serdar Ozkan, Sergio Salgado and Guangbin Hong

24-035: Information Requirements for Mechanism Design

Richard McLean and Andrew Postlewaite

24-034: Taming the Curse of Dimensionality:Quantitative Economics with Deep Learning

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Galo Nuño Barrau and Jesse Perla

24-033: Commitment and Randomization in Communication

Emir Kamenica and Xiao Lin

24-032: Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification

J. Aislinn Bohren and Daniel Hauser

24-031: A Cognitive Foundation for Perceiving Uncertainty

J. Aislinn Bohren, Josh Hascher, Alex Imas, Michael Ungeheuer and Martin Weber

24-030: Over- and Underreaction to Information

Cuimin Ba, J. Aislinn Bohren and Alex Imas

24-029: Starting Strong: Medium- and Longer-run Benefits of Mexico's Universal Preschool Mandate

Jere Behrman, Ricardo Gomez-Carrera, Susan Parker, Petra Todd and Weilong Zhang

24-028: Machine Learning and the Yield Curve:Tree-Based Macroeconomic Regime Switching

Siyu Bie, Francis Diebold, Jingyu He and Junye Li

24-027: Economic Relief in Recession: Poverty and Unemployment Benefits During the Great Depression in Britain

Ivan Luzardo-Luna and Meredith Pake

24-026: Optimal Bailouts in Diversified Financial Networks

Krishna Dasaratha, Santosh Venkatesh and Rakesh Vohra

24-025: Persuasion, Posteriors & Polymatroids

Thanh Nguyen and Rakesh Vohra

24-024: Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Kenneth Gillingham and Simon Scheidegger

24-023: Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools

Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig and Irina Popova

24-022: How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?

Dirk Krueger, Egor Malkov and Fabrizio Perri

24-021: Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment

Dirk Krueger and Harald Uhlig

24-020: Neoclassical Growth Transition Dynamics with One-Sided Commitment

Dirk Krueger, Fulin Li and Harald Uhlig

24-019: Spooky Boundaries at a Distance: Inductive Bias, Dynamic Models, and Behavioral Macro

Mahdi Ebrahimi Kahou, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Sebastian Gomez-Cardona, Jesse Perla and Jan Rosa

24-018: Labor Unions and Social Insurance

Naoki Aizawa, Hanming Fang, Katsuhiro Komatsu and Zibo Zhao

24-017: Recovering Overlooked Information in Categorical Variables with LLMs: An Application to Labor Market Mismatch

Yi Chen, Hanming Fang, Yi Zhao and Zibo Zhao

24-016: Filtering with Limited Information

Thorsten Drautzburg, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo Guerron-Quintana and Dick Oosthuizen

24-015: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Tomohide Mineyama and Dongho Song

24-014: Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior:Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Carlos Sanz

24-013: Identifying the Volatility Risk Price Through the Leverage Effect

Xu Cheng, Eric Renault and Paul Sangrey

24-012: Dynamics of High-Growth Young Firms and the Role of Venture Capitalists

Yoshiki Ando

24-011: Food Coma is Real: The Effect of Digestive Fatigue on Adolescents’ Cognitive Performance

Justine Hervé, Subha Mani, Jere Behrman and Ramanan Laxminarayan

24-010: Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions

Francis X. Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch

24-009: The Distributional Effects of Asset Returns

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Oren Levintal

24-008: Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti

24-007: Navigating by Falling Stars:Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates

Rodolfo Campos, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Galo Nuño Barrau and Peter Paz

24-006: Allocation Mechanisms with Mixture-Averse Preferences

David Dillenberger and Uzi Segal

24-005: The Household Equipment Revolution

Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Jeremy Greenwood and Nezih Guner

24-004: Optimal Urban Transportation Policy:Evidence from Chicago

Milena Almagro, Felipe Barbieri, Juan Castillo, Nathaniel Hickok and Tobias Salz

24-003: On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income and Consumption Heterogeneity

Minsu Chang and Frank Schorfheide

24-002: The Wealth of Working Nations

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Gustavo Ventura and Wen Yao

24-001: The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

23-021: Female headship and poverty in the Arab region: Analysis of trends and dynamics based on a new typology

Shireen AlAzzawi, Hai-Anh Dang, Vladimir Hlasny, Kseniya Abanokova Kseniya Abanokova and Jere Behrman

23-020: Minimum Wages and Intergenerational Health

Muhammad Farhan Majid, Jere Behrman and Hanna Wang

23-019: Future Orientedness

John Knowles and Andrew Postlewaite

23-018: Uniformly Strict Equilibrium for Repeated Games with Private Monitoring and Communication

Richard McLean, Ichiro Obara and Andrew Postlewaite

23-017: Bayesian Estimation of Panel Models under Potentially Sparse Heterogeneity

Hyungsik Roger Moon, Frank Schorfheide and Boyuan Zhang

23-016: Clustering for Multi-Dimensional Heterogeneity with an Application to Production Function Estimation

Xu Cheng, Frank Schorfheide and Peng Shao

23-015: Not a Typical Firm:Capital-Labor Substitution and Firms' Labor Shares

Joachim Hubmer and Pascual Restrepo

23-014: Reluctant Entrepreneurs: Evidence from China’s SOE Reform

Hanming Fang, Ming Li, Zenan Wu and Yapei Zhang

23-013: A Protocol for Repeated Bargaining

Akihisa Kato and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull

23-012: Commitment in the Canonical Sovereign Default Model

Xavier Mateos-Planas, Sean McCrary, Jose-Victor Rios-Rull and Adrien Wicht

23-011: International tax competition with rising intangible capital and financial globalization

Vincenzo Quadrini and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull

23-007: Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification

J. Aislinn Bohren and Daniel N. Hauser